Canadians will likely have to wait until next summer for interest rate cuts: CIBC's Benjamin Tal | Canada News Media
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Canadians will likely have to wait until next summer for interest rate cuts: CIBC’s Benjamin Tal

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Canadians anxious for lower interest rates, especially those looking to renegotiate their mortgages in the near future, will likely have to wait until the middle of next year for the Bank of Canada to start to cut, CIBC economist Benjamin Tal believes.

“I think they will take their time before they cut interest rates — not before June or July of next year,” Tal told the Financial Post’s Larysa Harapyn in a recent interview. “That’s another way of tightening, just keep high interest rates for longer.”

The Bank of Canada has raised its benchmark lending rate 10 times since March 2022 to a 22-year high of five per cent. The hikes were part of an effort to bring down inflation, which peaked at 8.1 per cent in June 2022 but has since slowed, registering at 3.8 per cent in September.

The central bank has said its goal is to get inflation back down to two per cent, but Tal said he believes the Bank of Canada could start cutting rates before it gets all the way there.

“If they see the trend going down, 2.5, 2.4, 2.3 they will start cutting interest rates,” Tal said Oct. 25. “They realize that there is so much damage happening, especially in the housing market.”

Tal, the deputy chief economist for CIBC World Markets, added that housing is already in a recession and would be hit by another “significant shock” if rates remain high in 2025 and 2026, when more than 57 per cent of outstanding mortgage totals are due to be reset.

Tal estimates that the central bank will take its time to cut rates, pausing at three per cent by the end of 2025.

While figures released by Statistics Canada on Oct. 31 showed GDP growth was flat in August and suggested the country was on the brink of a recession, Tal said that on a per-capita basis the recession is already here.

“The only reason we are not in a recession is because of population growth, which is not a way to grow,” he said.

Canada’s population rose by a record 2.9 per cent in the 12 months ending July 1, 2023, dragging on per capita results.

Though challenges still exist for the Bank of Canada, Tal said he was not overly concerned with the high level of wage growth, which is running at four to five per cent.

“It’s just a matter of time before wages begin to ease,” he said. Statistics Canada will provide insight on wages when it releases September jobs data on Nov. 3.

“Quite frankly, I believe they (the Bank of Canada) are done. They know that they simply have to wait to allow the weaker economy to weaken inflation.”

 

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Roots sees room for expansion in activewear, reports $5.2M Q2 loss and sales drop

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TORONTO – Roots Corp. may have built its brand on all things comfy and cosy, but its CEO says activewear is now “really becoming a core part” of the brand.

The category, which at Roots spans leggings, tracksuits, sports bras and bike shorts, has seen such sustained double-digit growth that Meghan Roach plans to make it a key part of the business’ future.

“It’s an area … you will see us continue to expand upon,” she told analysts on a Friday call.

The Toronto-based retailer’s push into activewear has taken shape over many years and included several turns as the official designer and supplier of Team Canada’s Olympic uniform.

But consumers have had plenty of choice when it comes to workout gear and other apparel suited to their sporting needs. On top of the slew of athletic brands like Nike and Adidas, shoppers have also gravitated toward Lululemon Athletica Inc., Alo and Vuori, ramping up competition in the activewear category.

Roach feels Roots’ toehold in the category stems from the fit, feel and following its merchandise has cultivated.

“Our product really resonates with (shoppers) because you can wear it through multiple different use cases and occasions,” she said.

“We’ve been seeing customers come back again and again for some of these core products in our activewear collection.”

Her remarks came the same day as Roots revealed it lost $5.2 million in its latest quarter compared with a loss of $5.3 million in the same quarter last year.

The company said the second-quarter loss amounted to 13 cents per diluted share for the quarter ended Aug. 3, the same as a year earlier.

In presenting the results, Roach reminded analysts that the first half of the year is usually “seasonally small,” representing just 30 per cent of the company’s annual sales.

Sales for the second quarter totalled $47.7 million, down from $49.4 million in the same quarter last year.

The move lower came as direct-to-consumer sales amounted to $36.4 million, down from $37.1 million a year earlier, as comparable sales edged down 0.2 per cent.

The numbers reflect the fact that Roots continued to grapple with inventory challenges in the company’s Cooper fleece line that first cropped up in its previous quarter.

Roots recently began to use artificial intelligence to assist with daily inventory replenishments and said more tools helping with allocation will go live in the next quarter.

Beyond that time period, the company intends to keep exploring AI and renovate more of its stores.

It will also re-evaluate its design ranks.

Roots announced Friday that chief product officer Karuna Scheinfeld has stepped down.

Rather than fill the role, the company plans to hire senior level design talent with international experience in the outdoor and activewear sectors who will take on tasks previously done by the chief product officer.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:ROOT)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Talks on today over HandyDART strike affecting vulnerable people in Metro Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Mediated talks between the union representing HandyDART workers in Metro Vancouver and its employer, Transdev, are set to resume today as a strike that has stopped most services drags into a second week.

No timeline has been set for the length of the negotiations, but Joe McCann, president of the Amalgamated Transit Union Local 1724, says they are willing to stay there as long as it takes, even if talks drag on all night.

About 600 employees of the door-to-door transit service for people unable to navigate the conventional transit system have been on strike since last Tuesday, pausing service for all but essential medical trips.

Hundreds of drivers rallied outside TransLink’s head office earlier this week, calling for the transportation provider to intervene in the dispute with Transdev, which was contracted to oversee HandyDART service.

Transdev said earlier this week that it will provide a reply to the union’s latest proposal on Thursday.

A statement from the company said it “strongly believes” that their employees deserve fair wages, and that a fair contract “must balance the needs of their employees, clients and taxpayers.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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