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Cap comparables: What could Johnny Gaudreau’s next contract look like? – Sportsnet.ca

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2 years ago

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Rewind the clock one year and the conversation around Johnny Gaudreau and the Calgary Flames was much, much different.

On April 14, 2021, the Flames were fifth in the North Division, six points back of Montreal and with three more games played. There was a clear divide in the division and Calgary was on the wrong side of it. They had been one of Canada’s best teams in the latter half of 2019-20 before the pause, so this was a hugely disappointing development within a Canada-only division. Darryl Sutter was hired in March to try and save it — and though things did get better, the Flames just felt off.

Knowing that big contract decisions were upcoming in the summer of 2022, that finish opened the door to debate on where the Flames should go from here. Matthew Tkachuk, once thought to be the future captain when Mark Giordano left, was not seen as such an automatic choice for that role anymore. Giordano was claimed in the expansion draft by Seattle.

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One of the bigger lingering issues was what should happen with Gaudreau. The mid-round draft find in 2011 has been a franchise cornerstone. He’s been a top-three scorer on the team in each of his eight seasons, and the top scorer on five occasions (this season will be his sixth). But with his contract expiring in 2022, he wasn’t necessarily an automatic re-sign.

For one, Gaudreau’s post-season production has left something to be desired, with 19 points in 30 career playoff games. Aside from that, his 2018-19 season seemed to be the peak, when he posted a then-career high 99 points. In the two seasons that followed, Gaudreau posted 58 points in 70 games and 49 in 56. Good seasons to be sure, but a clear drop off from where he had been before.

Tkachuk was also up for a new contract in 2022, an RFA due a $9 million qualifying offer and one year away from UFA status. Then Andrew Mangiapane emerged and he also is an RFA, one year from UFA status, in 2022. So … there was debate if the Flames should have traded Gaudreau at last year’s trade deadline to get out ahead of it, or if it should have happened in the summer. It seemed like something of an inevitable move.

In 2021-22, though, it’s fascinating how the whole situation has been turned on its head.

Today, the Flames are neck-and-neck with the Maple Leafs as Canada’s best regular-season team and are second in the Western Conference. Gaudreau is having a new career-best season: with 101 points in 73 games he’s fourth in league scoring. By the end of the season, he could finish with the second-best offensive campaign in Flames history.

So is he an automatic re-sign now?

It’s complicated.

WHAT IS JOHNNY GAUDREAU WORTH ON HIS NEXT CONTRACT?

First we have to consider that Gaudreau is a left winger, a position that tends to be a tier lower than centre on the max earning-power scale. So we have to view how the market has shaped up within that context.

Gaudreau currently makes $6.75 million against the salary cap on a contract he signed in 2016. At that time, his deal accounted for 9.25 per cent of the salary cap. If you take that same percentage today on an $82.5 million cap (next year’s projected upper limit) it comes out to about $7.6 million. That’s probably the low-end of what we could look for on a Gaudreau extension.

He’s already the 16th-highest paid left winger in the league and after the season he’s been having he’s sure to rise up that list. How high? Consider these comparables at the top of the position:

Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers
Cap hit: $11.642 million signed in 2019
Term: Seven years
Cap percentage at time of signing: 14.29
Status at time of signing: UFA

Jamie Benn, Dallas Stars
Cap hit: $9.5 million signed in 2016
Term: Eight years
Cap percentage at time of signing: 13.01
Status at time of signing: Pending UFA

Alex Ovechkin, Washington Capitals
Cap hit: $9.5 million signed in 2021
Term: Five years
Cap percentage at time of signing: 11.66
Status at time of signing: Pending UFA

Kirill Kaprizov, Minnesota Wild
Cap hit: $9 million signed in 2021
Term: Five years
Cap percentage at time of signing: 11.04
Status at time of signing: RFA

Benn appears to be the outlier here, but it’s worth remembering he had won the Art Ross in 2015 (with 87 points). Besides that, this does appear to be a tier of players above Gaudreau, even after his 100-plus point campaign. Although, we always need to keep in mind that if he were to hit the open market in July, all bets are off, and that variable could be a factor in negotiations. Jeff Skinner got $9 million with plenty of term when he hit the market in 2019.

The tier below this group in terms of AAV is interesting because it includes a lot of RFA re-signings. Brady Tkachuk ($8.33 million), Andrei Svechnikov ($7.75 million), Patrik Laine ($7.5 million) and Kyle Connor ($7.142 million) all fall here. But, given their RFA status and how the teams still held control, they aren’t direct comparables to Gaudreau’s situation.

The next three players, who all make $7 million against the cap, are interesting to compare. Gabriel Landeskog, the captain of the Colorado Avalanche, got his payday and max term just last summer, right before he hit the open market. That’s 8.59 per cent of this year’s cap. Anders Lee got his 8.59 per cent share in 2019 and Max Pacioretty got his pay day after being acquired by Vegas in 2018 (his share was 8.81 per cent of a slightly lower cap).

Perhaps Gaudreau would have fit neater into this group if either he didn’t have such a standout contract season, or if the cap wasn’t on the rise again, with a big jump expected in three years. But even though some of you out there might be screaming about how you’d rather have one or two of these guys instead of Gaudreau, it is hard to see how he settles for $7 million (and a smaller share of the cap pie than his previous deal) before testing the open market.

When Taylor Hall — a past Hart Trophy winner — became a UFA in 2020, right in the middle of the pandemic and flat cap situation, he signed a one-year deal with Buffalo worth $8 million (9.82 per cent of the cap). And, honestly, that feels like the best place to start for Gaudreau. It’s probably more comparable than the $6 million AAV and four-year deal Hall signed with the Bruins just last off-season. He wasn’t coming off a kind of year Gaudreau is having, and he found a place that he wanted to be after bouncing around a little.

The only thing that might keep Gaudreau below $8 million is if he just wants to be in Calgary and is OK to settle for a bit less than his maximum earning potential.

“If (GM Brad Treliving) and the owners are happy with the way I’ve played here in the past six to seven years and it’s something we can figure out,” Gaudreau said at the end of last season. “I would love to do that. I love the city of Calgary. I love playing here. I don’t think I’ve ever once said I haven’t wanted to be here.”

If Gaudreau were to get, say, $8.5 million on an extension, it would make him the sixth-highest paid left winger in the NHL by AAV and that 10.3 cap percentage would also be sixth at the position at the time of signing. While the RFAs just below him have future higher earning potential, this would be Gaudreau’s biggest payday of his career.

And that number, $8.5 million, feels about right. We just wonder how much his playoff performance this spring could sway that number, or Calgary’s willingness to invest it in him.

WHAT DOES CALGARY’S CAP PICTURE LOOK LIKE?

We mentioned earlier that Gaudreau isn’t the only important piece of business the Flames need to resolve this summer. Tkachuk, also on pace for 100 points, needs a big-money, multi-year extension — if he goes to arbitration instead and takes a one-year deal, he’d be walking right into UFA status in 2023. That’s probably not where the Flames want to go with him. Mangiapane has slowed lately (just two goals in his past 20 games) but he did have a breakout campaign and has scored 31 times

Oliver Kylington, another RFA, has had a breakout season of his own and will get a notable raise on his $750,000 as well.

Calgary’s other pending UFAs include: Calle Jarnkrok, Ryan Carpenter, Brett Ritchie, Trevor Lewis, Nikita Zadorov, Erik Gudbranson, and Michael Stone. Highly unlikely they’re all back.

The picture is this: Calgary will go into the off-season with roughly $26 million in projected cap space, per Cap Friendly. That’s with 10 skaters and two goalies already under contract.

Let’s pencil in Gaudreau at $8.5 million, but keep it in our minds that he could reach $9 million. Tkachuk will get at least $9 million on the qualifying offer, and possibly more if he extends multiple years. For right wingers, Mitch Marner is the highest-paid at $10.93 million and Patrick Kane next at $10.5 million. Mark Stone and Nikita Kucherov are third at $9.5 million. Given the history of Tkachuk family negotiations, it’s hard not to imagine Matthew coming out of this as at least tied with Stone and Kucherov on a multi-year extension. He might even get to $10 million.

For Mangiapane, market comparables indicate he could roughly double his current $2.425 million AAV and, it should be noted, his agent Ritch Winter told Eric Francis that his advice to the player will be to take a short-term deal, or possibly settle in arbitration that would walk him to free agency.

If we project Gaudreau at $8.5 million, Tkachuk at $9.5 million and Mangiapane at $5 million that totals $23 million, leaving Calgary with $3 million of cap space and still needing to sign at least three forwards and one defenceman. And that doesn’t include an extra body or two.

So, ya, things will get tight.

SO WILL THE FLAMES HAVE TO CHOOSE BETWEEN GAUDREAU OR TKACHUK?

Not necessarily. There is one possible option that would give the team more room to fill out the depths of the roster and keep the band together.

Buy out Gaudreau’s good buddy and long-time former linemate Sean Monahan.

Sean Monahan’s buyout picture, per CapFriendly.

Making $6.375 million against the cap, Monahan was moved down as far as the fourth line this season and lost his place on the power play after the trade deadline. He had just 23 points and managed just 28 a year ago. Injuries have slowed him down and necessary hip surgery ended his 2021-22 campaign a couple weeks ago.

It’s just no longer financially viable for the Flames to roster him at that cost, considering the other investments they’ll need to make. Assuming Monahan does return to health and won’t be a permanent LTIR candidate (and eligible to be bought out), if the Flames did buy out the last two years of his contract, they would save an additional $4 million in cap space next season. In sum, that would mean roughly $7 million in remaining space. (While there will be an extra cost in 2023-24, that’s also the year Milan Lucic comes off the books.)

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Need to Know: Bruins at Maple Leafs | Game 3 | Boston Bruins – NHL.com

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10 hours ago

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April 24, 2024

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Familiar Territory

James van Riemsdyk has played his fair share of playoff contests here in Toronto – but all of them have come in blue and white. On Wednesday night, he would be on the other side for the first time if he indeed makes his Bruins postseason debut, which appeared to be a strong possibility based on the Black & Gold’s morning skate.

“It’s always special to play in this building,” said van Riemsdyk, who played in 20 postseason games with Toronto, including nine at Scotiabank Arena. “In this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun. This time of year is always amazing, no matter where you’re at – if you’re at a 500-seat arena or a rink with all the tradition and history like this. It’s always fun and always a great opportunity to get in there.”

van Riemsdyk was a healthy scratch for the first two games of this series, following a trend across the second half of the regular season, during which he sat out several games.

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“Playoff time of year is always the best time of year,” said van Riemsdyk, who has 20 goals and 31 points in 71 career playoff games between Philadelphia and Toronto. “Obviously, in this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun – two fun buildings to play in. You cherish every opportunity you get.

“This time of year, you learn that along the way, it’s all about the team. Whatever the team’s asking you to do, that’s always got to be your mindset and approach…you stay at it every day and just take it one day at a time.”

Montgomery said that if van Riemsdyk does re-enter the lineup, he’ll be looking for the veteran winger to help the Bruins’ offensive game. He also complimented van Riemsdyk’s professionalism throughout a trying second half.

“I guess getting his stick on more pucks,” Montgomery said on what he wants to see from van Riemsdyk. “We’ve talked about it a lot of times internally. Him and [Kevin] Shattenkirk have been great. They’re true pros. Every day come to work, come to get better. It’s not an easy situation, but he’s been great.”

van Riemsdyk concurred with his coach’s sentiments about helping Boston’s offensive attack, saying that he’ll be aiming to be around the net as much as possible.

“I think you’ve got to stay true to who you are as a player and play with good details and manage the game well and play to your strengths as a player,” he said. “This time of year, being around the net is always an important trait. You see all the goals being scored, it’s all within 5-10 feet of the net. That’s an area that I pride myself on, so going to be doing my best to get there and have an impact there.”

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NHL teams, take note: Alexandar Georgiev is proof that anything can happen in the playoffs

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21 hours ago

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April 24, 2024

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It’s hard to say when, exactly, Alexandar Georgiev truly began to win some hearts and change some minds on Tuesday night.

Maybe it was in the back half of the second period; that was when the Colorado Avalanche, for the first time in their first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Winnipeg Jets, actually managed to hold a lead for more than, oh, two minutes or thereabouts. Maybe it was when the Avs walked into the locker room up 4-2 with 20 minutes to play.

Maybe it was midway through the third, when a series of saves by the Avalanche’s beleaguered starting goaltender helped preserve their two-goal buffer. Maybe it was when the buzzer sounded after their 5-2 win. Maybe it didn’t happen until the Avs made it into their locker room at Canada Life Centre, tied 1-1 with the Jets and headed for Denver.

At some point, though, it should’ve happened. If you were watching, you should’ve realized that Colorado — after a 7-6 Game 1 loss that had us all talking not just about all those goals, but at least one of the guys who’d allowed them — had squared things up, thanks in part to … well, that same guy.

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Georgiev, indeed, was the story of Game 2, stopping 28 of 30 shots, improving as the game progressed and providing a lesson on how quickly things can change in the playoffs — series to series, game to game, period to period, moment to moment. The narrative doesn’t always hold. Facts don’t always cooperate. Alexandar Georgiev, for one night and counting, was not a problem for the Colorado Avalanche. He was, in direct opposition to the way he played in Game 1, a solution. How could we view him as anything else?

He had a few big-moment saves, and most of them came midway through the third period with his team up 4-2. There he was with 12:44 remaining, stopping a puck that had awkwardly rolled off Nino Niederreiter’s stick; two missed posts by the Avs at the other end had helped spring Niederreiter for a breakaway. Game 1 Georgiev doesn’t make that save.

There he was, stopping Nikolaj Ehlers from the circle a few minutes later. There wasn’t an Avs defender within five feet, and there was nothing awkward about the puck Ehlers fired at his shoulder. Game 1 Georgiev gets scored on twice.

(That one might’ve been poetic justice. It was Ehlers who’d put the first puck of the night on Georgiev — a chip from center ice that he stopped, and that the crowd in Winnipeg greeted with the ol’ mock cheer. Whoops.)

By the end of it all, Georgiev had stared down Connor Hellebuyck and won, saving nearly 0.5 goals more than expected according to Natural Stat Trick, giving the Avalanche precisely what they needed and looking almost nothing like the guy we’d seen a couple days before. Conventional wisdom coming into this series was twofold: That the Avs have firepower, high-end talent and an overall edge — slight as it may be — on Winnipeg, and that Georgiev is shaky enough to nuke the whole thing.

That wasn’t without merit, either. Georgiev’s .897 save percentage in the regular season was six percentage points below the league average, and he hadn’t broken even in expected goals allowed (minus-0.21). He’d been even worse down the stretch, putting up an .856 save percentage in his final eight appearances, and worse still in Game 1, allowing seven goals on 23 shots and more than five goals more than expected. That’s not bad; that’s an oil spill. Writing him off would’ve been understandable. Writing off Jared Bednar for rolling him out there in Game 2 would’ve been understandable. Writing the Avs off — for all of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s greatness — would’ve been understandable.

It just wouldn’t have been correct.

The fact that this all went down now, four days into a two-month ordeal, is a gift — because the postseason thus far has been short on surprises, almost as a rule. The Rangers and Oilers are overwhelming the Capitals and Kings. The Hurricanes are halfway done with the Islanders. The Canucks are struggling with the Predators. Panthers–Lightning is tight, but one team is clearly better than the other. Bruins–Maple Leafs is a close matchup featuring psychic baggage that we don’t have time to unpack. In Golden Knights–Stars, Mark Stone came back and scored a huge goal.

None of that should shock you. None of that should make you blink.

Georgiev being good enough for Colorado, though? After what we saw in Game 1? Strange, surprising and completely true. For now.

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"Laugh it off": Evander Kane says Oilers won’t take the bait against Kings | Offside

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1 day ago

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April 23, 2024

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The LA Kings tried every trick in the book to get the Edmonton Oilers off their game last night.

Hacks after the whistle, punches to the face, and interference with line changes were just some of the things that the Oilers had to endure, and throughout it all, there was not an ounce of retaliation.

All that badgering by the Kings resulted in at least two penalties against them and fuelled a red-hot Oilers power play that made them pay with three goals on four chances. That was by design for Edmonton, who knew that LA was going to try to pester them as much as they could.

That may have worked on past Oilers teams, but not this one.

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“We’ve been in a series now for the third year in a row with these guys,” Kane said after practice this morning. “We know them, they know us… it’s one of those things where maybe it makes it a little easier to kind of laugh it off, walk away, or take a shot.

“That type of stuff isn’t gonna affect us.”

Once upon a time, this type of play would get under the Oilers’ skin and result in retaliatory penalties. Yet, with a few hard-knock lessons handed down to them in the past few seasons, it seems like the team is as determined as ever to cut the extracurriculars and focus on getting revenge on the scoreboard.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the longest-tenured player on this Oilers team, had to keep his emotions in check with Kings defender Vladislav Gavrikov, who punched him in the face early in the game. The easy reaction would be to punch back, but the veteran Nugen-Hopkins took his licks and wound up scoring later in the game.

“It’s going to be physical, the emotions are high, and there’s probably going to be some stuff after the whistle,” Nugent-Hopkins told reporters this morning. “I think it’s important to stay poised out there and not retaliate and just play through the whistles and let the other stuff just kind of happen.”

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch also noticed his team’s discipline. Playoff hockey is full of emotion, and keeping those in check to focus on the larger goal is difficult. He was happy with how his team set the tone.

“It’s not necessarily easy to do,” Knoblauch said. “You get punched in the face and sometimes the referees feel it’s enough to call a penalty, sometimes it’s not… You just have to take them, and sometimes, you get rewarded with the power play.

“I liked our guy’s response and we want to be sticking up for each other, we want to have that pack mentality, but it’s really important that we’re not the ones taking that extra penalty.”

There is no doubt that the Kings will continue to poke and prod at the Oilers as the series continues. Keeping those retaliations in check will only get more difficult, but if the team can continue to succeed on the scoreboard, it could get easier.

 

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