Consumers and corporate chieftains are heading in the opposite direction, with one group still brimming with good thoughts about the future and the other sure that tougher times are coming.
Recent surveys exemplify a trend that began a few years ago and has accelerated over the past several months. The gap between sentiment is broad and growing, though there’s some reason to believe that a change could be coming.
Chief executive officers and chief financial officers see an economy that is heading into a slowdown if not an outright recession. Recent surveys show that CEOs believe recession is the biggest risk in 2020, while almost all CFOs surveyed by Deloitte think the economy is likely to at least slow.
They view the U.S.-China trade war, a slowing global picture and increasing headline political risks as threats to the decadelong expansion that is the longest in American history.
But consumers are in the opposite camp.
While sentiment has leveled off from record highs, they still view conditions as generally positive. Spending remains strong even amid a growing savings rate, as consumers remain the beneficiary of a 50-year low in the unemployment rate and historic highs for the stock market.
The difference could be a simple matter of perspective.
Whereas consumers tend to focus more on conditions closer to home, corporate executives take a more global view. The tariff exchange coupled with a more pessimistic view on global growth has brought down executive hopes for the future.
“One of the reasons corporate confidence has fallen is because the global economy has been weak, and that preceded the trade spat,” said Joseph LaVorgna, chief economist for the Americas at Natixis. “We could be in one of those situations where CEO confidence is just reflective of what’s been a weaker global economy but not necessarily a weaker U.S. economy.”
Even the global picture may be getting better.
The U.S. and China are about to sign off on the first phase of a trade deal that at least will forestall any further aggression, eliminating one key unknown. Estimates also are improving, with the World Bank on Wednesday modestly upgrading its 2020 global GDP forecast to 2.5%.
Closer to home, fourth-quarter growth is now likely to be 2.3%, according to the Atlanta Fed, which in November had a 0.3% projection.
Sentiment surveys often are seen as a leading indicator. But with conditions improving, the downbeat outlook from corporate executives might instead reflect rearview mirror thinking.
LaVorgna thinks an upswing in housing and a bottoming in the beleaguered manufacturing sector could be key.
“Consensus is way too negative for 2020,” LaVorgna said. “These things [housing and manufacturing] have a tremendous ability to reinforce confidence on the upside. When that happens, you’ll see CEO confidence on the upturn.”
Shekel surplus weighs down Palestinian economy – FRANCE 24
Issued on: 17/10/2021 – 05:06Modified: 17/10/2021 – 05:04
Ramallah (Palestinian Territories) (AFP)
Palestinian businesses flush with too much Israeli cash: it may not be the most talked about aspect of the occupation, but experts warn it is a growing concern for the Palestinian economy.
Palestinians in the West Bank use the Israeli shekel but, beyond that commonality, the two financial systems are dramatically different.
In Israel, as in many advanced economies, digital payments are rapidly growing, taking the place of transactions once done with bills and coins.
But in the West Bank, a territory under Israeli military occupation since 1967, cash is still king.
Tasir Freij, who owns a hardware store in Ramallah, told AFP he now has to pay a two percent commission to deposit paper money because his bank is reluctant to receive it.
“This is a crisis… and we are feeling its effects,” Freij told AFP.
Much of the paper money is brought in by the tens of thousands of Palestinians who work inside Israel or Jewish settlements in the West Bank, and who get their wages in cash.
Experts and business people say the buildup of hard currency risks stifling the Palestinian financial system.
Freij fretted that buying goods from abroad typically requires converting shekels into foreign currencies, especially dollars or euros, but the abundance of shekels in the market has forced him to accept painfully unfavourable rates.
– ‘Dumping ground’ –
The Palestinian Monetary Authority, which functions as the central bank in the West Bank, has warned that paper shekels are building up because it has no way to return the hard currency to Israel.
PMA governor Firas Melhem told AFP that the cash buildup was “a very worrying problem,” causing headaches for banks and businesses.
“If the problem is not resolved quickly, the Palestinian market will turn into a dumping ground for the shekel,” he added.
The shekel was established as the official currency in the Palestinian territories as a result of economic protocols known as the Paris agreements that followed the Oslo Accords between Israel and the Palestinian Territories.
Much has changed since those 1994 agreements.
As they lean more on digital transactions, Israel’s banks no longer want to reabsorb paper cash that accumulates in the West Bank but does not circulate rapidly through the Israeli economy.
The Bank of Israel cited security as another reason.
“We stress that uncontrolled cash transfers could be misused, especially for money laundering and terror funding, and would not be in compliance with international standards on the prohibition of money laundering and terror funding,” the bank told AFP in a statement.
– Solutions? –
Palestinian banks have tried to encourage customers to moderate their cash deposits, but that risks limiting the capital available to banks, which would lower their ability to offer loans.
The cash surplus predicament has fuelled renewed calls from some Palestinian experts in favour of ditching the shekel, either in favour of a unique Palestinian currency or that of another nation, including the Jordanian dinar, which also circulates in the West Bank.
The Palestinian Monetary Authority is also pushing the Bank of Israel to take back more hard currency.
But Melhem stressed that Palestinians also needed to “keep up with developments in financial technologies,” and move towards more cashless payments.
© 2021 AFP
Saudi Arabia’s PIF launches offshore platform tourism project
Saudi Arabia‘s sovereign wealth fund, the Public Investment Fund, announced on Saturday the launch of “THE RIG”, which it said would be the world’s first tourism destination on offshore platforms.
The fund, the engine of Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman‘s economic transformation plans for Saudi Arabia, manages a portfolio worth $400 billion.
It added in a statement that the project was located in the gulf and spanned an area of more than 150,000 square metres.
It said the project would feature a number of attractions, including three hotels, restaurants, helipads, and a range of adventurous activities including extreme sports.
The funds did not disclose the value of the project.
(Reported by Saeed Azhar; Writing by Moataz Abdelrahiem; Editing by Alex Richardson)
The World Needs 16 Billion Covid Shots: New Economy Saturday – Bloomberg
Wanted: 16.5 billion vaccine doses.
That’s the number urgently needed to inoculate the world against Covid-19—on top of the roughly 6.5 billion doses already administered. This according to Chad P. Bown, a trade specialist at the Peterson Institute of International Economics, and Thomas J. Bollyky, the Director of the Global Health Program at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Vaccinating the planet’s entire population is a moral imperative. The fact that only 3% of adults in low-income countries have been immunized is catastrophic. Putting more needles into arms is also a broader public health priority: the longer it takes to immunize everyone, the greater the risk deadlier variants will emerge.
As a result, full vaccination is clearly an economic necessity, too. But 19 months into a horrific pandemic that’s killed millions, impediments remain.
This Week in the New Economy
The International Chamber of Commerce estimates the global economy stands to lose as much as $9.2 trillion as a result of unequal vaccine access.
But vaccines are also a trade issue. Like cars, laptops and smartphones, their production relies on intricate networks of cross-border supply chains. This system of dispersed manufacturing has worked remarkably well for places where global vaccine production is concentrated: India, the U.S., the European Union, the U.K. and China.
But these countries have prioritized their own people over the global good.
So-called “vaccine nationalism” was perhaps understandable when the first shots arrived. Producer countries naturally scrambled to protect their own hospital workers and the elderly.
The practice became less defensible when these countries started vaccinating low-risk populations. And that inequity is arguably intolerable now that those same rich nations are offering boosters while millions of healthcare workers in poorer countries haven’t received their first shot.
Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, director-general of the World Health Organization, denounces this state of affairs as “vaccine apartheid.”
If producer countries won’t share their existing output, then they must ramp up production, argue Bollyky and Bown (a member of the Bloomberg New Economy Trade Council).
“The mathematics are simple but stunning,” they write. Apart from Johnson & Johnson, available vaccines require a two-dose regimen. That adds up to 14 billion doses for a global population of seven billion. Taking into consideration third doses, stockpiling and inevitable waste, and the world needs a total of 23 billion doses for full vaccination. Given that 6.5 billion have already been delivered, that means an extra 16.5 billion are required.
To achieve the additional output, Bown and Bollyky are calling for a “Covid-19 Vaccine Investment and Trade Agreement” among countries in the vaccine supply chain.
Members would set a framework to subsidize the full supply chain and work with COVAX, the nonprofit that distributes vaccines to mostly poor countries. Countries that restricted exports would be penalized through limits on their vaccine inputs. Transparency would keep the system honest.
“Trade ministers should do their part to ensure that everyone everywhere has access to Covid-19 vaccines,” Bown and Bollyky warned. “The threat that new and more devastating virus variants could emerge—against which existing Covid-19 vaccines would be ineffective—means that no one is safe until the pandemic is under control.”
The fourth annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum will convene the world’s most influential leaders in Singapore on Nov. 16-19 to mobilize behind the effort to build a sustainable and inclusive global economy. Learn more here.
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