CEO Pessimism About the Economy Is Getting Worse; Will This Affect U.S. Stocks? - CCN.com | Canada News Media
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CEO Pessimism About the Economy Is Getting Worse; Will This Affect U.S. Stocks? – CCN.com

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  • CEO pessimism is at the highest level since 2012.
  • The stock market will likely keep rising as CEOs continue authorizing stock repurchases.
  • The Federal Reserve will keep pumping liquidity and keep the longest bull market alive.

Business consulting firm PricewaterhouseCoopers (PWC) recently released its 23rd Annual Global CEO Survey. The poll asks chief executives around the world about their global economic outlook for the next 12 months. Last year, nearly 30% responded that global economic growth would decline in the next 12 months. A year later, these CEOs were right on the money.

The International Monetary Fund reported that the global economy grew 2.9% in 2019. That’s a significant decrease from 3.7% growth in 2018.

This year, more CEOs believe that the global economy will slow down in the next 12 months. Despite the pessimism, the U.S. stock market will likely extend its historic bull run.

CEO Pessimism on Global Growth Reaches Highest Level Since 2012

More than half of the 1,581 CEOs polled in over 80 countries believe that the global economy will decline in the next 12 months. According to Liz Ann Sonders, chief investment strategist at Charles Schwab, the proportion of chief executives predicting a growth decline has surged ten-fold since 2018.

In the U.S., that number is higher; 62% of U.S.-based CEOs believe that the rate of expansion will slow in the next 12 months.

Hundreds of CEOs around the world don’t believe that the global economy will fare better this year. | Source: Twitter

While PwC’s survey may sound alarming, the results won’t likely translate into U.S. stock market losses. The U.S. has a secret weapon that can keep the party going.

Stock Buybacks and Billions from the Fed to Keep the Longest Bull Market Alive

CEOs in the United States are likely not worried that the economy will tank soon. Why would they be?

These big wigs have access to billions of dollars courtesy of the Federal Reserve. They can simply borrow money from the Fed to pump share prices through stock buybacks. These CEOs also approve generous dividends to stockholders to keep them from dumping their shares.

Blockchain pioneer Nick Szabo shares the same sentiment. He believes that CEOs are incentivized to pump their company’s stock because they receive handsome compensation for share price growth.

Asset inflation work to the benefit of CEOs. | Source: Twitter

This is not just a baseless theory. VanEck strategist Gabor Gurbacs took to Twitter to illustrate that the money supply grew by over $8 trillion since the financial crisis but the rate of spending declined by 30%. The new money didn’t trickle down to the average Joe because it made its way to the stock market.

Indeed, where is the money? | Source: Twitter

Stock Buyback Growth Coincide With U.S. Stock Market Surge

Pessimistic or not, chief executives will continue buying back company shares. Yardeni Research revealed that the S&P 500 began to show signs of recovery in 2009 just as buybacks and dividends started to rise. Interestingly, this is around the time that the Federal Reserve launched the first round of quantitative easing.

The stock market rises as buybacks surge. | Source: Twitter

The chart above reveals that the U.S. stock market continues to rise just as dividends and buybacks grow. Goldman Sachs projects that stock repurchases in 2020 will drop by a mere 5%.

The global economy might slow down this year. It might impact efforts to buyback shares as companies often use their free cash flow to repurchase stocks. Nevertheless, the music will likely keep on going as long as the Federal Reserve keep pumping billions into the repo market.

Disclaimer: The above should not be considered trading advice from CCN.com. The writer does not own any stocks in the S&P 500.

This article was edited by Sam Bourgi.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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