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Charting Global Economy: US Employment, Manufacturing Power Up – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Job growth and manufacturing in the U.S. powered ahead at end of the first quarter as a robust pace of coronavirus vaccinations, fewer restrictions on business and fiscal support generate a stronger tailwind for the economy.

Sweden, Norway and Russia are among countries on pace to return to pre-pandemic levels of growth by year-end, while Covid-19 infections continue to haunt emerging economies such as Brazil.

The pandemic may have expedited China’s bid to overcome the U.S. as the world’s largest economy later this decade.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

U.S.

Employers added the most jobs in seven months with improvement across most industries in March, as more vaccinations and fewer business restrictions supercharged the labor market recovery in the world’s largest economy.

Manufacturing expanded in March at the fastest pace since 1983, catapulted by the firmest orders and production readings in 17 years, adding to evidence of an economy poised to accelerate.

The average time it takes for production materials to reach U.S. factory floors is now the longest on record, the ISM report showed. The purchasing managers group said lead times stretched to 75 days in March from 67 days a month earlier. Shortages of basic materials, higher input prices and difficulties in transporting products are creating headaches for an otherwise robust factory sector.

Europe

Russia’s economy continued to rebound from its pandemic-induced recession in the fourth quarter of 2020, easing its contraction as President Vladimir Putin opted against imposing a second national lockdown.

By the end of 2021, Bloomberg Economics forecast output will exceed its pre-pandemic level in Sweden and Norway. That’s set to bring interest rate increases into view.

Home working is likely to remain after the pandemic finishes, according to a survey of 2,000 companies the U.K., most of which are planning to allow employees greater flexibility on where and when they do their jobs.

Asia

Since the 1970s, China has been racing to become the world’s largest economy. Its recovery from the pandemic means it could eclipse the U.S. this decade.

Returning to a high growth path will be the easy part for South Asian economies led by India, which confront much harder challenges in the form of increased inequalities and reduced access to education in the wake of the pandemic, according to the World Bank.

Emerging Markets

Brazil’s unemployment rate rose as another, more contagious wave of the coronavirus began spreading across the nation.

Countries across Asia are trying everything from fertility tours to baby bonuses to spur population growth in an aging world. Not so in Indonesia, where officials are trying to convince people to have fewer children.

World

Bloomberg Economics’ nowcasts of GDP growth across major economies show output for a significant chunk of the world economy poised to move above the pre-crisis peak, but with a widening divide as China and the U.S accelerate out of the slump, and European countries sink lower.

The International Monetary Fund is preparing to give its member countries the biggest resource injection in its history, $650 billion, to boost global liquidity and help emerging and low-income nations deal with mounting debt and Covid-19.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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Britain is ‘bouncing back’ into the same old economy – The Guardian

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Britain is ‘bouncing back’ into the same old economy  The Guardian



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CANADA STOCKS – TSX ends flat at 19,228.03

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* The Toronto Stock Exchange’s TSX falls 0.00 percent to 19,228.03

* Leading the index were Corus Entertainment Inc <CJRb.TO​>, up 7.0%, Methanex Corp​, up 6.4%, and Canaccord Genuity Group Inc​, higher by 5.5%.

* Lagging shares were Denison Mines Corp​​, down 7.0%, Trillium Therapeutics Inc​, down 7.0%, and Nexgen Energy Ltd​, lower by 5.7%.

* On the TSX 93 issues rose and 128 fell as a 0.7-to-1 ratio favored decliners. There were 26 new highs and no new lows, with total volume of 183.7 million shares.

* The most heavily traded shares by volume were Toronto-dominion Bank, Nutrien Ltd and Organigram Holdings Inc.

* The TSX’s energy group fell 1.61 points, or 1.4%, while the financials sector climbed 0.67 points, or 0.2%.

* West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 0.44%, or $0.26, to $59.34 a barrel. Brent crude  fell 0.24%, or $0.15, to $63.05 [O/R]

* The TSX is up 10.3% for the year.

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Canadian dollar outshines G10 peers, boosted by jobs surge

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Canadian dollar

By Fergal Smith

TORONTO (Reuters) – The Canadian dollar advanced against its broadly stronger U.S. counterpart on Friday as data showing the economy added far more jobs than expected in March offset lower oil prices, with the loonie also gaining for the week.

Canada added 303,100 jobs in March, triple analyst expectations, driven by the recovery across sectors hit by shutdowns in December and January to curb the new coronavirus.

“The Canadian economy keeps beating expectations,” said Michael Goshko, corporate risk manager at Western Union Business Solutions. “It seems like the economy is adapting to these closures and restrictions.”

Stronger-than-expected economic growth could pull forward the timing of the first interest rate hike by the Bank of Canada, Goshko said.

The central bank has signaled that its benchmark rate will stay at a record low of 0.25% until 2023. It is due to update its economic forecasts on April 21, when some analysts expect it to cut bond purchases.

The Canadian dollar was trading 0.3% higher at 1.2530 to the greenback, or 79.81 U.S. cents, the biggest gain among G10 currencies. For the week, it was also up 0.3%.

Still, speculators have cut their bullish bets on the Canadian dollar to the lowest since December, data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed. As of April 6, net long positions had fallen to 2,690 contracts from 6,518 in the prior week.

The price of oil, one of Canada‘s major exports, was pressured by rising supplies from major producers. U.S. crude prices settled 0.5% lower at $59.32 a barrel, while the U.S. dollar gained ground against a basket of major currencies, supported by higher U.S. Treasury yields.

Canadian government bond yields also climbed and the curve steepened, with the 10-year up 4.1 basis points at 1.502%.

 

(Reporting by Fergal Smith; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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