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Charting the Global Economy: BOE Surprises With Bigger Rate Hike

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(Bloomberg) — The Bank of England stepped up efforts to beat back the worst inflation since the 1980s by boosting interest rates half a percentage point to the highest level in 15 years.

The move surprised investors who had priced in a 40% chance of a hike of that magnitude. BOE policymakers also reiterated earlier guidance pointing to even higher rates, similar to the message Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell conveyed to US lawmakers this week.
Central bankers in Norway joined the BOE in accelerating their rate increases, while Switzerland dialed back its pace of hiking.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

World

In addition to the UK, Norway raised its benchmark rate a half point to 3.75%, while central banks in Indonesia, the Philippines, Mexico and Brazil left borrowing costs unchanged. The Swiss National Bank delivered its smallest hike since policy tightening began a year ago, while saying more action is likely.

The creeping rot inside commercial real estate is like a dark seam running through the global economy. Even as stock markets rally and investors are hopeful that the fastest interest-rate increases in a generation will ebb, the trouble in property is set to play out for years.

Europe

UK core inflation, which excludes food and energy, accelerated unexpectedly to a 31-year high of 7.1% in May, helping explain the BOE’s decision to raise interest rates a half percentage point. Separate data showed government debt now exceeds the size of the UK economy for the first time since 1961, imperiling Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s promise to restore health to the public finances and cut inflation.

Economic momentum in the euro area almost came to a halt in June, signaling an end to the revival the bloc demonstrated since its winter downturn. A purchasing managers index compiled by S&P Global fell to a five-month low.

Germany’s rollout of ultra-cheap public transport last summer is set to reverberate through its upcoming inflation readings, causing a headache for the European Central Bank.

Asia

South Korean exports offered an early sign of improvement in global trade after their first year-on-year gain since last summer. Preliminary trade figures showed a 5.3% gain in exports in the first 20 days of June from a year ago for the first increase since August, a possible sign that a slowdown in world demand is starting to ease.

Singapore’s core inflation rate cooled in May to the lowest in 11 months, helped by a deceleration in transport and food prices.

US

Sales of previously owned homes barely rose in May as high mortgage rates continued to crimp demand and discourage owners from listing their properties. The median selling price declined 3.1% from a year earlier, the most since 2011, to $396,100. That’s still historically elevated for the month and reflective of limited supply.

Business activity expanded in early June at the slowest pace in three months, held back by a deeper contraction in manufacturing. Healthy demand for services stood in sharp contrast to a further deterioration at factories. The manufacturing gauge fell to a six-month low, with new orders matching the fastest rate of contraction since May 2020.

The so-called Great Retirement is looking a little less great lately, as stalled house prices and the rising cost of living push some older workers back into the labor force, new research shows.

Emerging Markets

Mexico kept borrowing costs unchanged for a second month as the central bank vows to maintain its restrictive stance over the coming months while inflation continues to show signs of cooling.

Egypt looked past a pick-up in inflation to keep interest rates unchanged for a second month, with the central bank’s next bout of monetary tightening likely hinging on the country’s ability to secure the foreign exchange needed to manage another currency devaluation.

—With assistance from Philip Aldrick, Leda Alvim, Maya Averbuch, Katia Dmitrieva, Tarek El-Tablawy, John Gittelsohn, Hooyeon Kim, Shawna Kwan, Andrew Langley, Mirette Magdy, Tom Rees, Augusta Saraiva, Michael Sasso, Jack Sidders, Kevin Varley, Alexander Weber and Natalie Wong.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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