(Bloomberg) — China’s economy got off to a flying start this year, starting to rebound from Covid lockdowns while helping to boost global growth.
Gross domestic product beat economists’ expectations in the first quarter, bolstered by consumer spending. The International Monetary Fund said that China will be the biggest contributor to global output in the next five years, even as India has overtaken it as the world’s most populous nation.
Argentina raised interest rates by 300 basis points as inflation runs at 100%. Price pressures are still elevated in the UK too, but are rising at about a tenth of that pace.
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:
Asia
China’s economy expanded in the first quarter at the fastest pace in a year, putting Beijing on track to meet its growth goal for 2023 without adding major stimulus, while also helping to cushion the global economy against a downturn. Gross domestic product expanded 4.5% last quarter from a year earlier, beating economists’ expectations. In March, retail sales soared 10.6% on an annual basis, the most since June 2021.
South Korea’s economy likely skirted close to a recession at the start of the year, according to a Bloomberg survey, as slower global growth stunted exports and renewed currency weakness helped inflate the country’s import bill.
India has overtaken China as the world’s most populous nation, according to United Nations data. India’s population surpassed 1.4286 billion, slightly higher than China’s 1.4257 billion people, according to mid-2023 estimates. India, where half the population is under the age of 30, is set to be the world’s fastest-growing major economy in the coming years.
World
China will be the top contributor to global growth over the next five years, with its share set to be double that of the US, according to the International Monetary Fund. Brazil, Russia, India and China are expected to add almost 40% of the world’s growth through 2028.
Major central banks may be struggling to contain inflation, but they are at least making progress toward another goal: plain speaking. According to research by economists at the Bank of France, people need five fewer years of education to understand a Federal Reserve monetary-policy statement since a review by officials in August 2020.
Argentina’s central bank increased its benchmark interest rate by 300 basis points after annual inflation soared in March and foreign currency reserves slumped, while Uruguay became South America’s first inflation-targeting country to start lowering borrowing costs. The Bank of Namibia deviated from South African monetary policy for the first time this year, and Indonesia left rates unchanged.
Europe
Britain’s inflation rate remained stubbornly high in double digits in March, another surprisingly strong reading that will strengthen the case for more interest rate rises at the Bank of England. The Consumer Prices Index rose 10.1% from a year ago, driven by the strongest increase in food prices in more than four decades.
The European Central Bank is set to deliver three quarter-point increases in interest rates in May, June and July before ending the most aggressive bout of monetary tightening in its history, according to a Bloomberg survey of economists.
Ukraine’s Black Sea crop shipments resumed on Wednesday, following another brief halt that sparked fresh worries about future cargoes from the key exporter. The latest halt — which followed a similar one last week — highlights uncertainty over the grain-export deal that Russia has threatened to quit if its issues regarding its own grain and fertilizers aren’t resolved by mid-May.
US
US workers are starting to see pay gains run faster than inflation, amplifying their purchasing power and giving the Federal Reserve reason to raise interest rates again next month.
In a US housing market warped by sharply higher interest rates, homebuilders possess what buyers crave: inventory. Buyers have begun flocking to builders’ sales offices, where offers of discounts and rate buy-downs are so generous that it’s often cheaper to buy new than pre-owned.
Emerging Markets
Latin American policymakers who led the world into aggressive interest-rate hikes after the pandemic are now warning investors that their battle against inflation will take longer than expected. In both closed-door and public events during a week of high-profile meetings in Washington, the region’s top economic authorities threw cold water over hopes of an imminent end to tight monetary policy.
Ten years after the Rana Plaza garment factory in Bangladesh collapsed, much of the work that began with a burst of reformist zeal remains to be done — throughout South Asia and other garment-manufacturing centers in Latin America and Africa. The economics of the fashion industry remain stacked against the people who make most of the world’s clothes.
–With assistance from Andrew Atkinson, Maria Eloisa Capurro, Prashant Gopal, Tom Hancock, William Horobin, Harumi Ichikura, Hooyeon Kim, Aliaksandr Kudrytski, Cynthia Li, Eltaf Najafizada, Bibhudatta Pradhan, Áine Quinn, Tom Rees, Olivia Rockeman, Zoe Schneeweiss and Alex Tanzi.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.
The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.
Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.
Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.
The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.
The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.
“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.
Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.
“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.
The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.
The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.
A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.
Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.
CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.
Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.
The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.
Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.
Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.
Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.
Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
