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Charting the Global Economy: Economic Pain Lingering Into 2021 – Bloomberg

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The economic distress of the Covid-19 pandemic is picking up where it left off at the end of 2020.

The latest high-frequency data show activity in the advanced economies softened in the first two weeks of the new year. In the U.S., government figures showed retail sales fell for a third month in December as a resurgent virus prompted another tightening of business restrictions. Europe is facing the possibility that output will shrink in consecutive quarters.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

U.S.

Tightening Belts

U.S. retail sales fell 0.7% in December after previous month revised lower

Source: U.S. Commerce Department

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Retail sales declined at the close of the holiday-shopping season, wrapping up a painful year for the nation’s merchants as the pandemic forced store closures and kept consumers at home. The value of receipts for all of 2020 rose just 0.6%, the weakest performance in 11 years.

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Meanwhile, the U.S. factory sector continues to show promise. The rate of job openings, or number of available positions as a share of total employment in the non-durable goods industry plus the vacancies, hit 5.1% in November, the fifth straight record in data back to 2000.

Europe

Euro-Area Pain

Bloomberg Economics sees economy contracting 4.1% in first quarter

Source: Bloomberg Economics estimates and forecasts

Note: Monthly Index, January 2020 = 100

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Under pessimistic assumptions on the duration of new lockdown restrictions to contain the spread of Covid-19, Bloomberg Economics lowered its first-quarter estimate for the euro-area economy to a 4.1% contraction, after a 1.5% drop in the final three months of 2020.

Leaving Britain

The U.K.’s eastern European population shrank almost 200,000 last year

Source: Office for National Statitics

Note: EU14 = members before 2004; EU8 = countries that joined in 2004; EU2 = Bulgaria and Romania, which joined in 2007. Data for year to June since 2016

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The number of eastern Europeans living in the U.K. last year slumped to levels last seen in 2015 ahead of the end of the Brexit transition and as the coronavirus lockdowns closed huge parts of the economy.

Asia

Full Steam Ahead

China’s share of the global economy is expected to grow at a faster pace

Source: IMF, World Bank, McKinsey & Company

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China’s economic ascent is accelerating barely a year after its first coronavirus lockdowns, as its success in controlling Covid-19 allows it to boost its share of global trade and investment.

Emerging Markets

A Mexican Woman’s Work

Number of hours per week spent on household chores has fallen more for men than women*

Source: Use of Time survey of the National Institute of Statistics and Geography of Mexico

*Average hours per week spent on cooking, cleaning and caring for children, elderly or disabled

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The women of Mexico already faced the worst economic prospects in Latin America. Now the pandemic threatens to sink them even further, aggravating chronic inequality and dragging down the country’s fortunes.

World

Weak Start

Activity in advanced economies is significantly lower than a month ago

Source: Bloomberg Economics, Google, Moovitapp.com, German Statistical Office, BloombergNEF, Indeed.com, Shoppertrak.com, Opportunity Insights

Note: Jan. 8, 2020 = 100

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After the holiday slump, activity in several of the world’s largest advanced economies extended their recovery in the second week of January. Yet compared with early December, Bloomberg Economics gauges that integrate data such as mobility, energy consumption and public transport usage remain significantly lower.

America First

U.S. seen as most attractive business location among G-7

Source: Stiftung Familienunternehmen

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The U.K. dropped behind the U.S. as the best international business location for the first time since the ranking was created by Germany’s Foundation for Family Businesses in 2006. Even so, it’s still ahead of other Group-of-Seven countries, with Italy at the bottom of the list.

— With assistance by Maeva Cousin, Tom Orlik, David Powell, Bjorn Van Roye, Jamie Rush, Maria Eloisa Capurro, Sophie Caronello, Enda Curran, Max De Haldevang, Tom Hancock, Lucy Meakin, Iain Rogers, and Jordan Yadoo

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    Business

    A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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    Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

    Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

    Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

    Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

    Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

    Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

    Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

    June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

    Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

    Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

    July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

    Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

    Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Economy

    S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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    TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

    The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

    In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

    The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

    The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

    The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

    Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Economy

    Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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    VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

    Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

    The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

    “If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

    “Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

    Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

    The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

    The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

    Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

    More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

    Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

    “This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

    Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

    “We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

    Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

    Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

    Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

    “We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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