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U.S. inflation is at an almost four-decade high, price expectations are rising in Japan and soaring energy costs are squeezing European households.
Germany’s economy may have shrunk in final three months of 2021, while the World Bank shaved global growth estimates for this year because of the coronavirus, persistent supply chain disruptions and less fiscal support. In Brazil, inflation clocked in at about 10% last year.
Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:
U.S.
Consumer prices are likely to extend their eye-popping gains after soaring last year by the most in nearly four decades, further burdening Americans and ramping up pressure on Federal Reserve policy makers to act. Last year, the increase in the consumer price index was largely due to high goods inflation. Excluding food and energy, the price index of goods surged 10.7%, the largest 12-month advance since 1975.
Consumer sentiment declined in early January by more than forecast amid mounting concerns about soaring inflation and the fast-spreading omicron variant. Americans expect prices will rise at an annual rate of 3.1% over the next five to 10 years, the most since 2011.
Mortgage rates in the U.S., tracking a jump in yields for 10-year Treasuries, rose for a third straight week, reaching the highest point in almost two years. Signs point to borrowing costs rising further, which would increase the burden on home buyers who are already stretching to afford a purchase.
Europe
Soaring energy prices are putting the squeeze on European consumers desperate for some relief after two years of coronavirus, lockdowns and job worries. The financial pain is taking a toll on households, who are more worried about prices than at any time this century, and feel less inclined to splurge, according to a European Commission survey.
Germany is headed for its second recession of the pandemic after the emergence of the coronavirus’s omicron strain compounded drags on output from supply snarls and the fastest inflation in three decades.
For five years, Emmanuel Macron has been fending off challenges from the fringes of mainstream French politics. But as he seeks reelection in April, the president who was nurtured in the top echelons of the French technocracy has a potential knockout punch to throw: the robust economy.
Asia
Inflation expectations for Japanese households jumped to the highest in 13 years, showing how costlier energy is influencing sentiment even as overall price gains remain far below the Bank of Japan’s target.
Emerging Markets
Brazil’s consumer prices rose more than expected last year, dogging the central bank and its efforts to bring inflation back to target.
World
What do workers really want in a job? The answer depends in part on where they’re from, according to a global survey from management consultant Bain & Co.
Covid-19 flare-ups, diminished policy support, and lingering supply-chain bottlenecks will see the global economic recovery cool more than previously estimated in 2022, after last year’s expansion clocked the fastest post-recession pace in eight decades, the World Bank said.
Stockpiles of metals including aluminum and nickel tracked by the market’s biggest exchange fell again, stoking worries about tighter supplies that’s sent prices rallying recently. Metals prices have climbed lately as production outages and smaller inventories revive worries about global supplies of materials crucial to manufacturing and the green-energy transition.
Central bankers in Romania and South Korea increased interest rates by 25 basis points this week, following peers in South America and eastern Europe to use their first monetary policy meetings of the year to increase borrowing costs to temper surging inflation.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.
The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.
Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.
Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.
The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.
The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.
“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.
Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.
“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.
The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.
The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.
A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.
Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.
Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.
CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.
The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.
Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.
The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.
Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.
Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.
Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.
Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
