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Charting the Global Economy: Prospects Darken for UK, Euro Area

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(Bloomberg) — The UK economy contracted last quarter for the first time since early 2021 in what is likely the start of a prolonged recession, while prospects for the euro area also darkened under the weight of inflationary pressures.

In the US, consumer prices rose by less than forecast and suggested the Federal Reserve will be able to tone down its aggressive interest-rate hikes should inflation continue to moderate. China’s Covid-Zero policy and global recession concerns took a toll on the country’s two-way trade.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

Europe

The UK economy shrank in the third quarter for the first time since the final lockdown of the pandemic as the cost-of-living crisis squeezed spending. Gross domestic product fell 0.2%, marking the start of what is expected to be a protracted recession. Britain is the only Group of Seven economy that has yet to fully recover from the pandemic.

The euro zone faces a grim winter as a recession bites just as double-digit inflation grips the region and war rages in Ukraine, according to the European Commission. Out of 15 euro-zone countries on which the Commission provided a quarterly forecast for GDP, every one of them is seen suffering at least one three-month period of contraction.

UK wage growth and hiring activity fell in October as the prospect of a recession prompted fresh caution among employers and cooled the job market.

Nordic inflation developments worsened the risk of the region’s looming recession as consumer price growth in Norway and Denmark hit levels not seen in decades. Norway’s inflation unexpectedly accelerated to 7.5% last month, the fastest pace since 1987, while in Denmark it rose to a 40-year high of 10.1% in September.

US

Inflation cooled in October by more than forecast, offering hope that the fastest price increases in decades are ebbing and giving Fed officials room to slow down their steep interest-rate hikes. Declines in the price gauges for medical care services and used vehicles restrained the core measure. Higher shelter costs contributed to more than half of the increase in overall CPI.

If last year’s holiday shopping season was characterized by empty store shelves and a race to meet demand in a healthy US economy, very different concerns have emerged just 12 months later: overabundance and sinking sales.

Asia

China’s exports and imports both unexpectedly fell for the first time in more than two years, with rising risks of a recession causing overseas consumers to buy less and domestic problems including Covid Zero controls and a housing slump hitting demand at home.

Japan’s household spending increased in September for the first time in three months, showing some recovery despite growing concerns over inflation weighing on households’ spending power. The monthly rise in real consumption offers hope that Japan’s recovery from the pandemic has some resilience, even in the face of accelerating inflation.

Emerging & Frontier Markets

The Philippine economy expanded in the third quarter by more than projected, boosting the case for the central bank to tighten monetary policy further to contain inflation amid a sustained demand recovery.

Ghana’s inflation rate climbed more than expected in October, raising pressure on the central bank to continue increasing borrowing costs that are already at a more than five-year high. Annual inflation quickened to 40.4% in Africa’s second-largest gold producer.

World

Romania’s central bank lifted its benchmark rate by half a percentage point, after three larger increases, to the highest since 2010. Serbia boosted borrowing costs for an eighth month, while Poland left rates unchanged.

The world’s second-biggest buyer of gold among central banks last quarter believes there’s hardly such a thing as too much bullion. Uzbekistan has brought the share of the precious metal in its $32 billion reserves to almost two-thirds, in a reversal of a plan to cut it below 50% by buying US and Chinese sovereign debt.

–With assistance from Philip Aldrick, Siegfrid Alegado, Andrew Atkinson, Ekow Dontoh, Moses Mozart Dzawu, Nariman Gizitdinov, Maria Kolesnikova, John Liu, Ditas Lopez, Reade Pickert, Olivia Rockeman, Craig Stirling, Liza Tetley, Ott Ummelas, Jorge Valero, Erica Yokoyama and Lin Zhu.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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