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Charting the Global Economy: Resurgent Virus Taking Bigger Toll – Bloomberg

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U.S. payrolls shrank at the end of 2020 on a slump in restaurant employment, renewed lockdowns threaten a double-dip recession in the U.K. and India’s economy is staring at its worst annual contraction since the 1950s.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

U.S.

December Diffusion

Hospitality job losses drove down private payrolls, though most industries saw gains

Source: U.S. Labor Department

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The U.S. labor market in December shed jobs for the first time in eight months, reflecting a plunge in leisure and hospitality employment that highlights how surging Covid-19 infections are taking a greater toll on parts of the economy. The good news is that other parts of the job market held up.

Cumulative Change in Debt Balance

Data: Federal Reserve Bank of New York

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Since the financial crisis, U.S. households have added more student debt than any other kind — almost $1 trillion compared with $760 billion in mortgage loans. Some 43 million Americans owed money for their college education, or a family member’s, as of 2019. A few years ago, writing off large chunks of student debt seemed like a fringe idea. In a few weeks’ time, it could be government policy.

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Ranked highest in the Bloomberg Brain Drain Index of population loss of top talent, Kalamazoo, Michigan, has struggled like the rest of the U.S. with the job-crushing pandemic. But the city got some hope when Pfizer Inc.’s factory in adjacent Portage recently became a key distribution point for the vaccine, potentially helping the area’s economy turn a corner.

Europe

Lockdown Fallout

Possible labor supply hit from school closures

Source: Bloomberg Economics

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The new strain of Covid-19 that’s forced the U.K. into another lockdown and has been detected across Europe could reduce European Union labor supply by as much as 6% if schools are closed and childcare options narrow.

Double Dip

The new lockdown means the U.K. is almost certainly back in recession

Source: Bloomberg Economics

Note: January 2020 = 100. Bloomberg Economics sees the economy shrinking 1% in 4Q 2020 and 4.5% in 1Q 2021

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That new U.K. lockdown means the double dip recession is almost certain to be deeper than previously expected. Even if everything goes right and the roll-out of vaccines allows restrictions to be lifted by mid-February, GDP could contract by 4.5% in the first quarter, following a 1% fall in the final three months of 2020.

Asia

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Japan’s household spending held up better than expected in November, but slowing gains pointed to a weakening trend even before a recent surge in virus cases and this week’s declaration of emergency for Tokyo.

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India’s economy is set for its biggest annual contraction in records going back to 1952 as the rapid spread of coronavirus cases and measures to contain them hurt businesses and households.

Emerging Markets

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There isn’t a trade-off between saving lives from Covid-19 and protecting the economy, emerging markets data analyzed by Bloomberg Economics suggest.

World

Post-Holiday Bounce

Activity in advanced economies partly recovered in the first week of January

Source: Bloomberg Economics, Google, Moovitapp.com, German Statistical Office, BloombergNEF, Indeed.com, Shoppertrak.com, Opportunity Insights

Note: Jan. 8, 2020 = 100

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After slumping during the year-end holidays, activity in several of the world’s largest advanced economies partially recovered in the first week of January. Still, it remains significantly lower than at the start of last year, according to Bloomberg Economics gauges.

The Bloomberg Central Bank Outlook

How major central banks will change interest rates by the end of 2021

Source: Bloomberg Economics forecasts, survey of economists for Switzerland, Czech Republic, Poland

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Central banks are set to spend 2021 maintaining their ultra-easy monetary policies even with the global economy expected to accelerate away from last year’s coronavirus-inflicted recession, according to Bloomberg’s quarterly review of monetary policy.

Heavy Load

Global debt topped record $272 trillion in the third quarter

Source: Institute of International Finance

Note: Data for fourth quarter of 2020 is projected

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The world economy will be exiting the pandemic weighed down by much bigger debts and increased inequality that could hobble growth in the longer term.

— With assistance by Maeva Cousin, Ziad Daoud, Dan Hanson, Scott Johnson, Tom Orlik, Bjorn Van Roye, Jamie Rush, Vrishti Beniwal, Vincent Del Giudice, Ben Holland, Jeff Kearns, Wei Lu, Rich Miller, Yuko Takeo, and Alexandre Tanzi

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    Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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    OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

    Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

    Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

    Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

    Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

    Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

    Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

    According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

    That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

    People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

    That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

    Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

    That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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    The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

    The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

    CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

    This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

    While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

    Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

    The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

    Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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    As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

    Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

    A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

    More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

    Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

    “It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

    “It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

    American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

    It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

    “A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

    “It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

    A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

    Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

    “Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

    Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

    With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

    “With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

    “By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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