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Charting the Global Economy: Surge in Savings to Power Recovery – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Consumers around the world are flush with cash after an all-out effort by governments to ease pandemic-related financial burdens, setting the stage for a robust economic recovery.

In the U.S., data this week showed firmer-than-expected job growth and robust manufacturing, as well as added price pressures that are also evident in other nations.

Higher fuel prices are complicating India’s recovery prospects, while China is targeting economic growth in excess of 6% this year and indicated it would continue fiscal stimulus.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

World

Consumers in the world’s largest economies amassed $2.9 trillion in extra savings during Covid-related lockdowns, a vast cash hoard that creates the potential for a powerful recovery from the pandemic recession, according to estimates by Bloomberg Economics.

In much of the economy, the big question is when it will be safe to go back to pre-pandemic patterns of spending. For business travel, it’s more like: Who will want to? Corporate chiefs have noted the effectiveness of video-conferencing tools — and the money they saved. Many have also pledged to reduce carbon emissions. The upshot may be bad news for anyone looking forward to resuming a road-warrior lifestyle.

U.S.

Employers added more jobs than forecast in February and the jobless rate declined, suggesting the labor market is clawing its way forward again following several disappointing months. The report adds to recent evidence, including data on manufacturing and retail sales, that the economy is gaining momentum.

Manufacturing expanded in February at the fastest pace in three years and a gauge of materials costs accelerated the most since 2008 as supply shortages challenge the industry.

The U.S.’s $1.9 trillion relief bill is large enough to push gross domestic product above the pre-pandemic trend by midyear, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Asia

China set a conservative economic growth target of above 6% for the year, well below what economists forecast, and outlined ongoing fiscal support to keep the recovery going.

India’s record pump prices of gasoline and diesel are the newest threat to the economy’s nascent recovery, as high local taxes on retail fuel risk fanning inflation and driving a wedge between the objectives of fiscal and monetary policy makers.

Europe

Rishi Sunak became the first British finance minister to increase the main tax rate on corporate profits in almost 50 years.

The European Central Bank has enough space to increase bond purchases in order to limit upward pressures on yields. Bloomberg Economics anticipates ECB President Christine Lagarde next week will draw attention to the risk of premature tightening linked to unwarranted rises in risk-free rates and sovereign-bond yields, and signal a willingness to increase weekly purchases to dampen the move.

Emerging Markets

Brazil’s economic recovery slowed sharply in the the fourth quarter, supporting the case for fresh stimulus ahead of a congressional vote on another round of pandemic aid.

Ukraine raised interest rates from a post-communist low — surprising analysts who’d expected looser monetary conditions to be prolonged as another surge in coronavirus cases threatens the country’s recovery from recession.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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