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Charting the Global Economy: UK Incomes Set for Record Drop



(Bloomberg) — Britons are about to experience a record drop in disposable incomes as Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt raises taxes and cuts spending to clean up an economy already in recession.

The UK program represents the sharpest retrenchment in government spending since the austerity budgets set out after the global financial crisis. The measures come as the nation’s inflation rate hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, more than five times the central bank’s target.

In the US, retail sales advanced by the most in eight months, suggesting the economy got off to a good start in the fourth quarter. Meantime, activity in China weakened last month, and Chile’s economy contracted the most on a quarterly basis since the start of the pandemic.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:



Hunt targeted wealthy people and energy companies in a £55 billion ($65 billion) package of tax rises and spending cuts aimed at cleaning up the mess left by unprecedented shocks to the economy. The measures set out by the chancellor will contribute to a 7% drop in the disposable incomes of consumers over the next two years, the biggest squeeze on record, and will wipe out eight years of gains.

Energy bills drove UK inflation to a stronger-than-forecast 41-year high in October, adding to pressure on the government and Bank of England to act. The Consumer Prices Index increased 11.1% from a year ago, more than five times the central bank’s target.


US producer price growth stepped down in October by more than expected in the latest sign that inflationary pressures are beginning to ease. The data come on the heels of a smaller-than-expected monthly increase in the October consumer price index, which was welcomed as a sign that the fastest price increases in decades are finally be starting to ebb.

US retail sales posted the biggest increase in eight months in October, indicating demand for goods is broadly holding up despite decades-high inflation and a worsening economic outlook. The data suggest the economy got off to a good start in the fourth quarter, and may complicate the argument posed by several Federal Reserve officials pushing for a slower pace of interest-rate hikes in the coming months.

Port of New York and New Jersey kept its crown as the busiest in the US despite a slight drop in cargo movement as California’s top marine hubs continue to clear up backlogs and deal with uncertainty around dockworker labor talks.


Banks will return €296.3 billion ($308 billion) of cheap loans to the European Central Bank after their terms were toughened to help the battle against record inflation. The repayment represents just under 15% of the total outstanding amount of so-called TLTRO loans, which were used during the pandemic to keep credit flowing to households and businesses.

Economies in the European Union’s east slowed in the third quarter as consumers were hit by spiking energy costs triggered by Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine and soaring interest rates. As the euro area tips into recession, eastern Europe has been particularly plagued by double-digit inflation, forcing central banks to embark on a rapid series of rate increases since last year.

Emerging & Frontier Markets

Uzbekistan ended decades of economic isolation at a time when ultra-low interest rates made it an appealing destination for foreign capital — all the while remaining heavily reliant on remittances from its workers in Russia. To keep up the momentum of an economy that’s already projected to be among the fastest growing among post-Soviet states, Uzbekistan will look to the sale of land and aims to raise about $1 billion next year by divesting state assets, Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Kuchkarov, who also serves as minister of economic development, said in an interview.

Chile’s economy contracted the most on a quarterly basis since the start of the pandemic, pinning the nation on the brink of recession after both annual inflation and the interest rate hit multi-decade highs.


China’s economic activity weakened in October, putting pressure on Beijing to ramp up support after it took major steps in the past week to reduce the drag on consumers from Covid Zero policies and a property slump. Retail sales fell and industrial output growth weakened.


It’s been a miserable year for the global economy. But things can always get worse. An extreme downside scenario could wipe out some $5 trillion in global output, compared with more upbeat forecasts at the start of this year, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Rwanda’s central bank increased interest rates for the third time this year to the highest level since 2016 after roaring inflation led it to revise forecasts. Policymakers in Uruguay, Indonesia and the Philippines also raised rates.

–With assistance from Philip Aldrick, Andrew Atkinson, Saul Butera, Enda Curran, Nariman Gizitdinov, Marton Kasnyik, Maria Kolesnikova, Yujing Liu, Matthew Malinowski, James Mayger, Alex Morales, Tom Orlik (Economist), Reade Pickert, Augusta Saraiva, Piotr Skolimowski, Liza Tetley, Alexander Weber, Skylar Woodhouse and Lin Zhu.

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China Economic Recovery Stuttering, Commodities Beyond Copper, Iron Suggest – Bloomberg



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China Economic Recovery Stuttering, Commodities Beyond Copper, Iron Suggest  Bloomberg


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Quebec proposes making French mandatory for all economic immigration programs – Canada Immigration News



Published on May 29th, 2023 at 07:00am EDT


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Quebec is proposing that speaking French become mandatory criteria for provincial applicants.

Quebec Premier Francois Legault has proposed major changes to Quebec’s economic immigration criteria.

Speaking on May 25 with the Minister of Immigration, Francisation and Integration, Christine Frechette and the Minister of the French Language, Jean-François Roberge, Legault says the changes will ensure that nearly 100% of new economic immigrants to Quebec will know French before they arrive in the province by 2026. This is meant to promote Francophone economic immigration in Quebec.

“As we have seen for several years, French is in decline in Quebec,” said Legault. “Since 2018, our government has acted to protect our language, more than other successive governments since the adoption of Bill 101 under the Lévesque government. But if we want to reverse the trend, we must go further. By 2026, our goal is to have almost entirely Francophone economic immigration. We all have a duty, as Quebecers, to speak French, to transmit our culture on a daily basis, and to be proud of it.”

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Knowledge of oral French will be required for adults. This is meant to ensure that those who wish to settle in Quebec will be able to communicate in French throughout day-to-day interactions at work and in their communities.

The changes are part of a new permanent immigration program for skilled workers in Quebec. The province says the Skilled Worker Selection Program will “take into account the diverse needs of Quebec.”

Candidates in the program will be evaluated in four categories that have not yet been made clear, but the province says that three of the categories will require that the principal applicant and their accompanying spouse have knowledge of French.

There will also be revisions to existing programs. For example, the work experience requirement will be removed from the Quebec Experience Program for graduate students from a French-language study program.

Family reunification measures include making it mandatory for the guarantor to submit a plan for reception and integration that will support the learning of French for the person they are hosting.

Immigration is a shared responsibility between the federal and provincial governments. Quebec’s agreement is unique from other provinces in that it can select all its economic immigrants. Quebec does not have the authority to select family class sponsorship applicants or those who arrive in Canada as refugees or other humanitarian classes.

For 2023, Quebec has targeted that 65% of newcomers admitted to the province will be economic class.

Increasing immigration numbers in Quebec

The province is also considering raising the number of permanent selection admissions from 50,000 to 60,000 per year by 2027. This is in stark contrast to Legault’s recent comments that there was “no question” of Quebec accepting any rise in the number of newcomers and publicly rejecting the federal Immigration Levels Plan, which has a target of 500,000 permanent residents admitted to Canada each year by the end of 2025.

These changes also follow Quebec’s Immigration Levels Plan for 2023, where it was announced that the province would move away from plans that forecast only the coming year and begin introducing multi-year plans for immigration by 2024.

Why the changes?

Quebec is unique in Canada as it is the only province where French is the official language. The province is fiercely protective of its language, saying it is vital to protecting Quebec’s unique culture and status.

Legault is the leader of the Coalition Avenir Québec (CAQ) and is currently in his second term as Quebec’s premier, having been reelected last October. One of the main pillars of the CAQ party is to protect the French language in Quebec.

Immigration was one of the key issues in the recent election. Throughout his campaign, Legault said that Quebec would allow only 50,000 immigrants per year into the province as it would be difficult to accommodate and integrate more than that into Quebec society. He said that accepting more than that would be “a bit suicidal.”

Regardless, Quebec, like the rest of Canada, is experiencing a labour shortage as the population ages and the birth rate remains low. A report released last March by the Canadian Federation of Independent Business shows that the province could face an annual shortfall of up to nearly 18,000 immigrants, who would be able to fill Quebec’s labour needs.

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Lira hits record low, but stocks rise after Erdogan win in Turkey



The Turkish leader won the presidency for a third time after a run-off vote on Sunday.

The Turkish lira has plunged to record lows after the re-election of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, a sign that currency markets are not confident in the country’s economic future after the longtime leader’s re-election.

The Turkish currency weakened to 20.01 to the dollar on Monday after the high-stakes run-off a day earlier.

But Turkish stocks, on the other hand, rose as Erdogan entered a third decade in power with the benchmark BIST-100 index up 3.5 percent and the banking index rising more than 1 percent.


The lira fell to a record low as the country battles a cost of living crisis and depleted foreign reserves.

On the campaign trail, Erdogan pledged to slash inflation to single digits and boost economic growth, a message he reiterated in his victory speech late on Sunday. But analysts said his economic policies are unorthodox and predicted they will lead to more pain for Turks.

“In our view, Erdogan’s biggest challenge is Turkey’s economy,” Roger Mark, an analyst at the Ninety One investment management firm told the Reuters news agency. “His victory comes against a backdrop of perilous economic imbalances with his heterodox economic model proving increasingly unsustainable”.

Hasnain Malik, head of equity research at Tellimer, an emerging markets research firm, told the agency: “An Erdogan win offers no comfort for any foreign investor.”

“Only the most optimistic would hope that Erdogan now feels sufficiently secure politically to revert to orthodox economic policy,” he said.

Interest rate cuts sought by Erdogan sparked a devaluation of the Turkish lira in late 2021 and sent inflation to a 24-year peak of 85.5 percent last year. The president had argued that higher interest rates cause inflation while central banks around the world were raising rates to reduce price rises.

Turkey’s struggling economy, also reeling after the country’s devastating double earthquakes in February, was a major thorn in Erdogan’s prospect for re-election.

The leader has defended his economic policies, reassuring Turks that investment, production, exports and an eventual current account surplus will drive up Turkey’s gross domestic product.



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