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Charting the Global Economy: UK Incomes Set for Record Drop

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(Bloomberg) — Britons are about to experience a record drop in disposable incomes as Chancellor of the Exchequer Jeremy Hunt raises taxes and cuts spending to clean up an economy already in recession.

The UK program represents the sharpest retrenchment in government spending since the austerity budgets set out after the global financial crisis. The measures come as the nation’s inflation rate hit a 41-year high of 11.1% in October, more than five times the central bank’s target.

In the US, retail sales advanced by the most in eight months, suggesting the economy got off to a good start in the fourth quarter. Meantime, activity in China weakened last month, and Chile’s economy contracted the most on a quarterly basis since the start of the pandemic.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

UK

Hunt targeted wealthy people and energy companies in a £55 billion ($65 billion) package of tax rises and spending cuts aimed at cleaning up the mess left by unprecedented shocks to the economy. The measures set out by the chancellor will contribute to a 7% drop in the disposable incomes of consumers over the next two years, the biggest squeeze on record, and will wipe out eight years of gains.

Energy bills drove UK inflation to a stronger-than-forecast 41-year high in October, adding to pressure on the government and Bank of England to act. The Consumer Prices Index increased 11.1% from a year ago, more than five times the central bank’s target.

US

US producer price growth stepped down in October by more than expected in the latest sign that inflationary pressures are beginning to ease. The data come on the heels of a smaller-than-expected monthly increase in the October consumer price index, which was welcomed as a sign that the fastest price increases in decades are finally be starting to ebb.

US retail sales posted the biggest increase in eight months in October, indicating demand for goods is broadly holding up despite decades-high inflation and a worsening economic outlook. The data suggest the economy got off to a good start in the fourth quarter, and may complicate the argument posed by several Federal Reserve officials pushing for a slower pace of interest-rate hikes in the coming months.

Port of New York and New Jersey kept its crown as the busiest in the US despite a slight drop in cargo movement as California’s top marine hubs continue to clear up backlogs and deal with uncertainty around dockworker labor talks.

Europe

Banks will return €296.3 billion ($308 billion) of cheap loans to the European Central Bank after their terms were toughened to help the battle against record inflation. The repayment represents just under 15% of the total outstanding amount of so-called TLTRO loans, which were used during the pandemic to keep credit flowing to households and businesses.

Economies in the European Union’s east slowed in the third quarter as consumers were hit by spiking energy costs triggered by Russia’s war in neighboring Ukraine and soaring interest rates. As the euro area tips into recession, eastern Europe has been particularly plagued by double-digit inflation, forcing central banks to embark on a rapid series of rate increases since last year.

Emerging & Frontier Markets

Uzbekistan ended decades of economic isolation at a time when ultra-low interest rates made it an appealing destination for foreign capital — all the while remaining heavily reliant on remittances from its workers in Russia. To keep up the momentum of an economy that’s already projected to be among the fastest growing among post-Soviet states, Uzbekistan will look to the sale of land and aims to raise about $1 billion next year by divesting state assets, Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Kuchkarov, who also serves as minister of economic development, said in an interview.

Chile’s economy contracted the most on a quarterly basis since the start of the pandemic, pinning the nation on the brink of recession after both annual inflation and the interest rate hit multi-decade highs.

Asia

China’s economic activity weakened in October, putting pressure on Beijing to ramp up support after it took major steps in the past week to reduce the drag on consumers from Covid Zero policies and a property slump. Retail sales fell and industrial output growth weakened.

World

It’s been a miserable year for the global economy. But things can always get worse. An extreme downside scenario could wipe out some $5 trillion in global output, compared with more upbeat forecasts at the start of this year, according to Bloomberg Economics.

Rwanda’s central bank increased interest rates for the third time this year to the highest level since 2016 after roaring inflation led it to revise forecasts. Policymakers in Uruguay, Indonesia and the Philippines also raised rates.

–With assistance from Philip Aldrick, Andrew Atkinson, Saul Butera, Enda Curran, Nariman Gizitdinov, Marton Kasnyik, Maria Kolesnikova, Yujing Liu, Matthew Malinowski, James Mayger, Alex Morales, Tom Orlik (Economist), Reade Pickert, Augusta Saraiva, Piotr Skolimowski, Liza Tetley, Alexander Weber, Skylar Woodhouse and Lin Zhu.

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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