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Charting the Global Economy: US Jobs Signal Another Big Fed Hike – BNN

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Sustained US job growth and an unemployment rate near a 50-year low bolstered bets that the Federal Reserve will proceed with another big interest-rate hike this month to rein in demand and tamp down inflation.

Jumbo hikes were the theme of the week in other countries as well, like Hungary and Pakistan, as policy makers work to extinguish price pressures.

Meantime, Germany is considering setting aside strict borrowing limits next year if Russia halts natural gas deliveries for an extended time. In Japan, household spending weakened, calling into question the strength of the recovery.

Here are some of the charts that appeared on Bloomberg this week on the latest developments in the global economy:

World

A very busy week for central banks saw more than a dozen across the world hiking rates. Jumbo increases were in the majority, with Hungary going for 200 basis points, Pakistan for 125 basis points and another eight for 50 or 100.

The recession calls are getting louder on Wall Street, but for many of the households and businesses who make up the world economy the downturn is already here. The worries among small business owners, consumers and others are illustrated by so-called Misery Indexes, which blend unemployment and inflation rates.

Each wave of supply shock to hit the global economy during the pandemic seems to produce a different scapegoat. With the second half of 2022 just underway, there may yet be another culprit for supply stress — labor unrest.

US

Nearly 400,000 jobs added in a month and an unemployment rate near a 50-year low is probably enough evidence of the extreme tightness in the US labor market. But a look beneath the surface of the June employment report, and other recent data, shows just how hot it really is.

Europe

Germany is set to ditch its plan to return to strict borrowing limits next year if Russia stops natural gas deliveries to Europe’s largest economy for good, according to people familiar with the matter. There’s a silent agreement among cabinet members of Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s coalition that Berlin can’t stick to its fiscal plans in an emergency where Russian President Vladimir Putin uses scheduled maintenance on the Nord Stream pipeline as an excuse to end gas flows for a longer period, said the people.

Expectations for inflation, output prices and wage increases among UK businesses are all building, according to a Bank of England survey that may convince policy makers to push for bigger interest-rate hikes in the coming months.

French President Emmanuel Macron’s standout success in using public spending to tame rampant inflation is reaching its limits as a swelling debt burden and the loss of a governing majority curtails his ability to act. An intensifying cost-of-living squeeze would also further cloud France’s economic outlook, and threaten to revive grievances that sparked unrest during Macron’s first term with the so-called yellow-vest protests. 

Asia

Japan’s households cut spending in May for the first time in three months in a sign that the economic recovery is proving weaker than previously thought.

Signs are mounting that China’s economy shrank in the second quarter for the first time since 2020, placing the nation’s official statistics under fresh scrutiny as analysts bet the government will avoid acknowledging that slump.

China’s Ministry of Finance is considering allowing local governments to sell 1.5 trillion yuan ($220 billion) of special bonds in the second half of this year, an unprecedented acceleration of infrastructure funding aimed at shoring up the country’s beleaguered economy.

Emerging Markets

Thailand’s retail inflation accelerated in June to a new 14-year high, boosting the case for central bank to raise borrowing costs sooner than later. Faster inflation adds to the case for Southeast Asia’s second-largest economy to join central banks the world over in tightening policy settings to rein in price gains.

©2022 Bloomberg L.P.

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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