Even then, GPT-4 is already dated. There is no current system of feeding generative language AIs with new and dynamic information on the internet, such as stock price or interest rate fluctuations. So, if you’re thinking about taking a plunge into day-trading, this would not work well for you.
Who is turning to AI for investing advice?
However, for those looking at slightly broader movements, ChatGPT seems to serve admirably well, and younger Americans, many of them digital natives, have wholeheartedly embraced AI for investing advice.
According to The Motley Fool survey, 50% of Millennials and 53% of Gen Zers used the AI LLM to unearth stock picks. Meanwhile, only 25% of Baby Boomers — a cohort that still remembers how fax machines and floppy discs work — felt comfortable doing so.
Unsurprisingly, the survey also found that income levels can be good predictors of who tends to use the service for stock research. As many as 77% of high-income Americans say they have used ChatGPT for investment recommendations, compared to 43% of middle-income Americans and just 23% of low-income Americans.
Gender differences also turned out to be significant: women — who have outperformed men as investors recently — tend to be more conservative in money matters, according to The Motley Fool analyst Asit Sharma, being less impulsive and calmer during market volatility. So, it’s no surprise that only 41% of women used ChatGPT versus 55% of men.
In total, just over two-thirds (69%) of American adults said that they would consider using ChatGPT for investment advice in the future. This move to AI could be nothing short of a seismic upheaval in the economics of money management, thanks to the democratization of a tool that even someone like a hedge fund trader is simultaneously salivating over.
One recent survey of the top 50 hedge fund managers by London-based Market Makers found nine out of 10 hedge fund traders are planning to use AI to manage their portfolios for the rest of 2023.
What ChatGPT can do
Already, the news doesn’t look too rosy for the money men and women — such as institutional fund managers — who control and attempt to grow the vast assets of American savers.
For instance, a hypothetical fund of 38 stocks, chosen by ChatGPT and based on criteria (such as low debt, high growth) culled from the portfolios it was competing against, rose by 4.93% in the first eight weeks since its creation on March 6, 2023, versus an average of -0.78% posted by the 10 most popular funds in the UK. In fact, the hypothetical fund outperformed the top 10 on 34 of the 39 days the market was open.
Another potential nail in the coffin is a recent ChatGPT-based study conducted at the University of Florida, which suggests even more dire implications for fund managers worldwide.
In a paper published this week in the Social Science Research Network, professors Alejandro Lopez-Lira and Yuehua Tang described how they decided to test ChatGPT in how well it could conduct ‘Sentimental Analysis’ — essentially looking at headlines in articles to determine stock-picking strategy.
Again, ChatGPT is not trained beyond September 2021, so the researchers fed the AI model 67,586 headlines pertaining to 4,138 unique companies between then and now.
This kind of analysis has already been taking place in the trading rooms of hedge funds for some time now, but it was the first time that ChatGPT was tested to perform tasks almost identical to expensive proprietary trading platforms and with customized sentiment analysis built-in.
The ChatGPT trading model, using sentiment analysis, posted returns in excess of 500% during this period against the -12% from buying and holding an S&P 500 ETF during the same period.
If that isn’t bad news for the finance industry — and lower-rung research analysts, in particular, almost every day marks the emergence of new APIs and plug-ins that can integrate with ChatGPT.
For example, PortfolioPilot is a freshly released and verified ChatGPT plugin that allows portfolios to be dumped into it for analysis and recommendations — all for free.
Considering AI’s existing ability to best the most blue-chip of money managers out there, the days of paying mutual funds management fees for middling returns, at least in the current structure, may be winding to a close.
What ChatGPT can’t do
All of this sounds like investing nirvana, but before you plunge into the fray, buying and selling with your favorite investing bot, there are a few things you should keep in mind.
ChatGPT’s training ended in September 2021, so anything you ask it will not reflect the time period since. And that gap brings us to the tendency for generative AI to make up things when it doesn’t have answers to your questions — referred to as AI hallucinations.
Generative AI detects patterns really well, which it does by scraping data from pre-existing texts. However, it does not do well in causal reasoning and you could be lured into believing what it says through its glib conversational abilities. It’s also bad at math. Therefore, information or insights have to be double-checked for accuracy.
It also doesn’t read facial expressions well, which many investigative journalists and stock pickers rely on when watching CEO or CFO interviews to gauge the actual health of a company.
Finally, according to investment professionals, while it has amazed and delighted with its polished responses, many of these suggestions are still way too generalized to be helpful. It doesn’t ask the kind of sophisticated questions that any portfolio manager would.
Of course, AI can get better at all of these tasks in time, and each version that has come out has proven to be astonishingly better than its predecessor. But we’re not quite at investing nirvana yet.
And, when it gets there, we may have to negotiate a slightly larger headache — how do you make money in a market where information and analysis for any conceivable asset anywhere in the world is not at a premium, but just an AI prompt away?
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.
Losing a loved one is never easy, and the legal steps that follow can add even more stress to an already difficult time.
For years, families in Vancouver (and Canada in general) have struggled with a complex probate process—filled with paperwork and legal challenges.
Thankfully, recent changes to Canada’s probate laws aim to make this process simpler and easier to navigate.
Let’s unearth how these updates can simplify the process for you and your family.
What is probate?
Probate might sound complicated, but it’s simply the legal process of settling someone’s estate after death.
Here’s how it works.
Validating the will. The court checks if the will is legal and valid.
Appointing an executor. If named in the will, the executor manages the estate. If not, the court appoints someone.
Settling debts and taxes. The executor (and you) pays debts and taxes before anything can be given.
Distributing the estate. Once everything is settled, the executor distributes the remaining assets according to the will or legal rules.
Probate ensures everything is done by the book, giving you peace of mind during a difficult time.
Recent Changes in Canadian Probate Laws
Several updates to probate law in the country are making the process smoother for you and your family.
Here’s a closer look at the fundamental changes that are making a real difference.
1) Virtual witnessing of wills
Now permanent in many provinces, including British Columbia, wills can be signed and witnessed remotely through video calls.
Such a change makes estate planning more accessible, especially for those in remote areas or with limited mobility.
2) Simplified process for small estates
Smaller estates, like those under 25,000 CAD in BC, now have a faster, simplified probate process.
Fewer forms and legal steps mean less hassle for families handling modest estates.
3) Substantial compliance for wills
Courts can now approve wills with minor errors if they reflect the person’s true intentions.
This update prevents unnecessary legal challenges and ensures the deceased’s wishes are respected.
These changes help make probate less stressful and more efficient for you and other families across Canada.
The Probate Process and You: The Role of a Probate Lawyer
(Image: Freepik.com)
Working with a probate lawyer in Vancouver can significantly simplify the probate process, especially given the city’s complex legal landscape.
Here’s how they can help.
Navigating the legal process
Probate lawyers ensure all legal steps are followed, preventing costly mistakes and ensuring the estate is managed properly.
Handling paperwork and deadlines
They manage all the paperwork and court deadlines, taking the burden off of you during this difficult time.
Resolving disputes
If conflicts arise, probate lawyers resolve them, avoiding legal battles.
Providing you peace of mind
With a probate lawyer’s expertise, you can trust that the estate is being handled efficiently and according to the law.
With a skilled probate lawyer, you can ensure the entire process is smooth and stress-free.
Why These Changes Matter
The updates to probate law make a big difference for Canadian families. Here’s why.
Less stress for you. Simplified processes mean you can focus on grieving, not paperwork.
Faster estate settlements. Estates are settled more quickly, so beneficiaries don’t face long delays.
Fewer disputes. Courts can now honor will with minor errors, reducing family conflicts.
Accessible for everyone. Virtual witnessing and easier rules for small estates make probate more accessible for everyone, no matter where you live.
With these changes, probate becomes smoother and more manageable for you and your family.
How to Prepare for the Probate Process
Even with the recent changes, being prepared makes probate smoother. Here are a few steps to help you prepare.
Create a will. Ensure a valid will is in place to avoid complications.
Choose an executor. Pick someone responsible for managing the estate and discuss their role with them.
Organize documents. Keep key financial and legal documents in one place for easy access.
Talk to your family. Have open conversations with your family to prevent future misunderstandings.
Get legal advice. Consult with a probate lawyer to ensure everything is legally sound and up-to-date.
These simple steps make the probate process easier for everyone involved.
Wrapping Up: Making Probate Easier in Vancouver
Recent updates in probate law are simplifying the process for families, from virtual witnessing to easier estate rules. These reforms are designed to ease the burden, helping you focus on what matters—grieving and respecting your dead loved ones’ final wishes.
Despite these changes, it’s best to consult a probate lawyer to ensure you can manage everything properly. Remember, they’re here to help you during this difficult time.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.
The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.
