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Chile’s Economy Unexpectedly Expands for First Time Since January

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(Bloomberg) — Chile’s economic activity expanded for the first time since January as a surge in mining softened the blow from declines across other sectors, corroborating the central bank’s plans to continue interest rate cuts.

The Imacec index, a proxy for gross domestic product, rose 0.5% in June from the previous month, compared to the -0.1% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. From a year prior, it fell 1%, the central bank reported on Tuesday.

Chile’s central bank cut rates by a full percentage point last Friday — surprising most analysts who had expected a smaller reduction — as demand slumps and inflation heads back toward target. Double-digit borrowing costs have dragged on the purchases of goods from vehicles to supermarket items. Meanwhile, measures of business and consumer confidence remain below historic levels.

Read more: Chile Delivers Jumbo Rate Cut as Latin America Pivots to Easing

Mining surged 4.5% on the month in June, bouncing back from a 3.6% decline in May, according to the central bank.

On the other hand, commerce fell 0.5% during the period, dragged down by the automobile sector. Services also dropped 0.5% on weak demand from businesses, and industry decreased 1%.

“All in all, this was a poor report, despite the decent headlines,” Andres Abadia, chief Latin America economist at Pantheon Macroeconomics, wrote in a note. “Activity retreated by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter in Q2, reversing a similar gain in Q1.”

Swaps are now pricing a rate cut of as much as 150 basis points in September, while setting the year-end policy rate at 5.5%, compared with 7% before the bank’s decision on Friday. Borrowing costs are seen near 3.5% in 12 months.

Gross domestic product will tick up just 0.2% this year, according to Finance Ministry estimates published in July. That’s a sharp contrast from the record growth of 11.7% recorded in 2021 when government cash transfers and billions of dollars in early pension withdrawals propelled consumption.

“The level of activity continues to be below potential,” economists at Bice Inversiones wrote in a note. “We expect the central bank will continue with its cycle of interest rate cuts, lowering borrowing costs to 7.5% at the end of the year.”

–With assistance from Giovanna Serafim.

(Updates with more details from report and economist comments starting in fourth paragraph)

 

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

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