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Economy

China Giving Off Lehman Brothers Energy Across The Economy

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The extreme heat engulfing parts of China is a painfully apt metaphor for the economic temperature in Beijing.

The headlines of recent days can smack of cooling. Case in point: Asia’s biggest economy grew just 0.4% in the April-June quarter from a year ago. It was below forecasts of 1% and a world away from the 5.5% 2022 target.

But it’s the overheating risks emanating from China’s debt markets that are dominating investors’ attention. Some of the most extreme heat is being felt by China Evergrande Group and other property developers facing a mutiny among homeowners.

The problem: many Chinese took out huge mortgages for properties that remain unfinished. Homebuyers are either refusing to make payments or threatening to. This bubble has a number of economists worried China is giving off strong Lehman Brothers vibes as growth grinds to a halt.

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Minxin Pei, China expert at Claremont McKenna College notes that confidence in the stability of mainland banks has been “badly shaken” by the failure of several small banks in Henan Province in April.

Since 2008-2009, when the Lehman crisis rocked the global financial system, China has been on a debt binge to support growth. Lots of it was issued by local governments far away from the real seat of power in Beijing. “Many have wondered how long the party could go on,” Pei explains.

Diana Choyleva at Enodo Economics points to another warning sign that things are amiss the globe’s biggest trading nation: mass bank protests in the city of Zhengzhou, the provincial capital of Henan, in recent months in response to accounts being frozen.

This pushback by “bank depositors demanding their life savings back and condemning government corruption is another manifestation of the huge challenges Beijing faces at present,” Choyleva says. “In China, whose citizens have no chance to express views through the ballot box, domestic bank runs can signal falling confidence in the system Xi tops.”

Clearly, investors betting on Japan-like reckoning in China haven’t made money these last 13-14 years. Time and time again, Communist Party leaders managed to steer China away from the rocks. Beijing did so by pushing China’s debt-to-GDP ratio to the verge of 265%.

Short-sellers who stepped forward to bet against Chinese government debt or the yuan over the last dozen years ended up closing those trades. Here, think hedge fund manager Kyle Bass, founder of Dallas-based Hayman Capital.

But China’s debt challenge is now colliding with two big threats, one from abroad and one homemade.

The first is a global inflation surge forcing the Federal Reserve to make its biggest tightening moves since the early 1990s. The second is President Xi Jinping’s “zero-Covid” lockdowns, which are backfiring—and fast.

For China, any gross domestic product reading under 4% arguably puts the economy in recession territory. Not only is a new Covid-19 wave weighing on China’s outlook, but so is a diminishing returns dynamic that could reduce the power of fresh Chinese stimulus.

More than a decade of generating growth with massive infrastructure projects, many funded at the local government level, has left China with fewer productive projects to order up. Over time, the economic payoff weakens, increasing the costs to broader society.

As Xinquan Chen, economist at Goldman Sachs puts it: “Funds are less of a constraint for infrastructure investment this year, while the bottlenecks lie mainly with project pipelines and government incentives.”

And then there’s Charlene Chu, an economist well known for spotlighting China’s bubble troubles when she was with Fitch Ratings. Now with Autonomous Research, Chu has two big worries about Xi’s economy.

The immediate one is another cycle of Evergrande-like defaults as growth flatlines. The People’s Bank of China could surely try to open the monetary floodgates to avoid contagion. At some point, questions about which companies are too big to fail will pivot to whether they’re too big to save.

The longer-term problem is how debt becomes an intensifying headwind for China’s $17 trillion economy. In a recent appearance on the One Decision Podcast, Chu said “we continue to be in a climate where the Chinese government is growing credit at very, very rapid rates. And longer term, this does have a cost.”

Even if China doesn’t crash anytime soon, Chu says, the debt burden “does start to squeeze overall economic growth. The more you saddle households and businesses with debt the more each dollar or RMB of revenue or income they get from wages is going to repay debt. And that’s not going to consume goods, it’s not going to new capital expenditure to drive growth and business.”

China, Chu notes, “is in a situation now where the debt bubble continues to grow and it is I think one of the structural issues that is weighing on Chinese growth.” She adds that it’s “one of the reasons why we think we are entering an area here where we are going to be looking at low to mid-single-digit growth in China at best as the country really starts to slow down from this.”

Many bearish short-sellers will attest that Xi’s government is skilled at confounding the naysayers. Yet his financial rescue team really has its work cut out as Lehman comparisons make the rounds in investment circles.

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Parallel economy: How Russia is defying the West’s boycott

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When Moscow resident Zoya, 62, was planning a trip to Italy to visit her daughter last August, she saw the perfect opportunity to buy the Apple Watch she had long dreamed of owning.

Officially, Apple does not sell its products in Russia.

The California-based tech giant was one of the first companies to announce it would exit the country in response to Russian President Vladimir Putin’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022.

But the week before her trip, Zoya made a surprise discovery while browsing Yandex.Market, one of several Russian answers to Amazon, where she regularly shops.

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Not only was the Apple Watch available for sale on the website, it was cheaper than in Italy.

Zoya bought the watch without a moment’s delay.

The serial code on the watch that was delivered to her home confirmed that it was manufactured by Apple in 2022 and intended for sale in the United States.

“In the store, they explained to me that these are genuine Apple products entering Russia through parallel imports,” Zoya, who asked to be only referred to by her first name, told Al Jazeera.

“I thought it was much easier to buy online than searching for a store in an unfamiliar country.”

Nearly 1,400 companies, including many of the most internationally recognisable brands, have since February 2022 announced that they would cease or dial back their operations in Russia in protest of Moscow’s military aggression against Ukraine.

But two years after the invasion, many of these companies’ products are still widely sold in Russia, in many cases in violation of Western-led sanctions, a months-long investigation by Al Jazeera has found.

Aided by the Russian government’s legalisation of parallel imports, Russian businesses have established a network of alternative supply chains to import restricted goods through third countries.

The companies that make the products have been either unwilling or unable to clamp down on these unofficial distribution networks.

 

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Japanese government maintains view that economy is in moderate recovery – ForexLive

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Can falling interest rates improve fairness in the economy? – The Globe and Mail

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The ‘poor borrower’ narrative rules in media coverage of the Bank of Canada and high interest rates, and that’s appropriate.

A lot of people have been financially slammed by the rate hikes of the past couple of years, which have made it much more expensive to carry a mortgage, lines of credit and other borrowing. The latest from the Bank of Canada suggests rate cuts will come as soon as this summer, which on the whole would be a welcome development. It’s not just borrowers who need relief – the boarder economy has slowed to a crawl because of high borrowing costs.

But high rates are also a big win for some people. Specifically, those who have little or no debt and who have a significant amount of money sitting in savings products and guaranteed investment certificates. The country’s most well-off people, in other words.

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Lower rates will mean diminished returns for savers and less interest paid by borrowers. It’s a stretch to say lower rates will improve financial inequality, but they do add a little more fairness to our financial system.

Wealth inequality is often presented as the chasm between well-off people able to pay for houses, vehicles, trips and high-end restaurant meals and those who are driving record use of food banks and living in tent cities. High interest rates and inflation have given us more nuance in wealth inequality. People fortunate enough to have bought houses in recent years are staggering as they try to manage mortgage payments that have risen by hundreds of dollars a month. You can see their struggles in rising numbers of late payments and debt defaults.

Rates are expected to fall in a measured, gradual way, which means their impact on financial inequality won’t be an instant gamechanger. But if the Bank of Canada cuts 0.25 of a percentage point off the overnight rate in June and again in July, many borrowers will start noticing how much less interest they’re paying, and savers will find themselves earning less.


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Rob’s personal finance reading list

Snowballs and avalanches

A look at two strategies for paying off debt – the debt avalanche and the debt snowball. I’ll go with the avalanche.

How not to ruin your kitchen countertop

Anyone who has renovated a kitchen lately knows how expensive stone countertops can be. Look after yours by protecting it from a few common kitchen items.

What you need to know about stock market corrections

A helpful explanation of stock market corrections. It seems an opportune time to look at corrections, given how volatile stocks have been lately. Like scouts, investors should always be prepared.

Put that snack back

Food inflation requires more careful grocery shopping. Here’s a roundup of food products – cookies, snacks, ice cream – that don’t taste as good as they used to. Food companies have always adjusted their recipes from time to time. Is this happening more because of inflation’s impact on raw material prices? A U.S. list – most products are available are familiar to Canadians, too.


Ask Rob

Q: I have Tangerine children’s accounts for my kids. Can you suggest a better alternative?

A: The rate on the Tangerine children’s account is 0.8 per cent, which actually compares well to the big banks and their comparable accounts. For kids aged 13 and up, check out something new called the JA Money Card.

Do you have a question for me? Send it my way. Sorry I can’t answer every one personally. Questions and answers are edited for length and clarity.


Tools and guides

A comprehensive guide on how to build a good credit score.


In the social sphere

Social Media: An offbeat way of fighting high food costs

Watch: Is now the hardest time ever to buy a home?

Money-Free Zone: Singer-songwriter Maggie Rogers has a new album called Don’t Forget Me and it’s generating some buzz because it’s a great listen. Smooth vocals and a laid back countryish vibe that hits a faster pace on one of my favourite cuts, Drunk.


More PF from The Globe

– He keeps ‘a few thousand in crisp new bills’ at home – is that a good idea?

– The pension pivot: Employers recognizing that workers need help with debt as much as retirement

– Her bond ETF is ‘a dud and not promising at all’ – should she sell?

– Despite high fees, Canadians remain perplexingly loyal to mutual funds. Here’s why


More Rob Carrick and money coverage

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Even more coverage from Rob Carrick:

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