Connect with us

Economy

China is winning the global economic recovery – CNN

Published

 on


The world’s second largest economy was the only major world power to avoid a recession this year as Covid-19 forced lockdowns and crippled businesses. China’s GDP is expected to grow 1.6% this year, while the global economy as a whole will contract 5.2%, according to summer projections from the World Bank.
China built its relatively quick recovery through several measures, including stringent lockdown and population tracking policies intended to contain the virus. The government also set aside hundreds of billions of dollars for major infrastructure projects, and offered cash incentives to stimulate spending among its populace. The payoff has been evident, as tourism and spending rebounded during last week’s busy Golden Week holiday period.
By the end of the year, China’s share of global GDP is likely to rise by about 1.1 percentage points, according to a CNN Business calculation using World Bank data. That’s more than triple the share it gained in 2019. By contrast, the United States and Europe will see their shares dip slightly.
All told, China’s economy is expected to be worth about $14.6 trillion by the end of 2020, roughly equivalent to 17.5% of global GDP.
Even without the disruption caused by the virus, China’s share would have ticked up this year, according to Larry Hu, chief China economist for Macquarie Group. But China’s ability to buck the worldwide trend is accelerating the growth in its importance to the global economy.
“The recovery in China has been much stronger than the rest of the world,” Hu added.
A worker in the workshop of a textile company presses out orders for products for the domestic and foreign markets in Haian city, Jiangsu Province, China, on October 3.

A Golden Week boom

The economic improvement has been no more apparent than during this past week, when the country celebrated one of its annual Golden Week holidays. This season’s festivities marked the founding of the People’s Republic of China and the Moon Festival, and was one of the country’s busiest travel seasons of the year.
More than 630 million people traveled around the country during Golden Week, which ended Thursday, according to the Ministry of Culture and Tourism. That’s nearly 80% of the numbers who traveled during the same period last year.
Tourist spending, meanwhile, recovered to nearly 70% of last year’s level, reaching $70 billion. And movie ticket sales surpassed $580 million during the Golden Week holiday — just 12% shy of last year’s record high.
The holiday week’s numbers are “encouraging,” said Macquarie’s Hu.
“As life is returning to normal in mainland China, consumption, especially the service consumption, is under recovery,” he said, added that pent-up demand has finally been unleashed.

A more balanced recovery

Even before the holiday, China’s economy had been picking up momentum.
An official gauge of manufacturing activity rose to a six-month high in September. A private survey from the media group Caixin, which measures smaller businesses, also showed the sector continued to expand last month.
The services sector is also doing well. An official survey released last week put activity at its highest level in nearly seven years. And on Friday, a Caixin survey revealed that services experienced one of the quickest paces of expansion in the past decade in September.
“Overall, the economy remained in a post-epidemic recovery phase and improved at a faster pace,” Wang Zhe, senior economist at Caixin Insight Group, said in a report accompanying Friday’s data.
Consumer spending is rebounding, too, in yet another encouraging sign. Economists were concerned earlier this year that China’s recovery was too unbalanced, having been driven by lots of state-led infrastructure projects and not enough consumer spending.
And despite trade tensions, China’s economy has also benefited from its vital role in global supply chains, according to Louis Kuijs, chief Asia economist at Oxford Economics. The research and advisory group’s own calculations also indicate that China will increase its share of global GDP by about a percentage point this year.
“In contrast to expectations of … changes in global supply chains away from China, it looks as if, at least for now, China’s success in shaking off the Covid-19 outbreak and keeping factories operating has strengthened its role in global value chains,” Kujis said. He pointed out that US foreign direct investment into China actually rose 6% in the first half of this year, according to China’s Ministry of Commerce.
“Even as US-China tensions have worsened dramatically recently, many US multinationals remain keen to engage with China,” Kujis said, adding that American firms were likely encouraged by Beijing’s decision to remove some barriers to investing in the country’s financial sector.

Challenges ahead

While China’s recovery has been strong, there are challenges ahead.
Like in other countries, the pandemic has taken a heavy toll on China’s poor and rural populations, according to the Fitch Ratings analysts.
The average monthly income collected by rural migrant workers fell nearly 7% in the second quarter compared to a year earlier, according to World Bank estimates that used Chinese government data. The hundreds of millions of people who fit that description typically work in construction, manufacturing and other low paying but vital activities.
And low-income households in China — those who make less than $7,350 a year — experienced the most severe declines in family wealth out of any other income group, according to a survey jointly conducted by China’s Southwestern University of Finance and Economics and Ant Group’s research institute.
“This suggests the recent recovery in consumption is likely to have been somewhat skewed towards higher-income groups,” the Fitch Ratings analysts said.
And Kuijs of Oxford Economics said that US-China tensions remain a concern, even as foreign direct investment grows.
If the United States were to decouple “significantly from China,” the country’s growth would trend less than half a percentage point lower per year through 2040, he said, as long as other developed countries maintained most ties.
But if other developed countries join the United States, he suspected that impact could be much larger, causing China’s GDP growth to fall twice as fast through the same period.
That kind of “substantial” decoupling “would sharply reduce the country’s productivity and GDP growth,” Kuijs said.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

You're Not Welcome Here: How Social Distancing Can Destroy The Global Economy – NPR

Published

 on


Paris is under nightly curfew, starting at 9, to curb the spread of rising coronavirus cases.

Kiran Ridley/Getty Images

Kiran Ridley/Getty Images

Stay out.

It’s what people are being asked to tell each other. Less than 10 days ago, London banned people who live in different households from meeting each other indoors, to stop the spread of the coronavirus.

“Nobody wants to see more restrictions, but this is deemed to be necessary in order to protect Londoners’ lives,” London Mayor Sadiq Khan told the London Assembly.

Taking away the welcome mat is key to cutting off the path of the coronavirus. From the beginning of the pandemic, cities, states and countries have banned each other. And now, eight months into lockdowns that have led to immense stress and fatigue among people, some places around the world are introducing even more draconian measures.

The path toward recovery continues to be inherently antisocial and runs counter to how humans interact, live lives and conduct their business. This unwelcome policy — which has already harmed families, societies and economies — has the potential to lead to a tectonic shift in how the world functions in the foreseeable future.

End of globalization?

Some people worry that this moment is strengthening the hand of nationalism that was rising before the pandemic and that it is accelerating the changing relationships between countries.

President Trump’s “America First” strategy of the last four years had increased tensions between the United States and the rest of the world, specifically China. It was already leading to friction in the smooth supply-and-demand economic chain that has been the hallmark of an interdependent global world. But the self-isolation during the pandemic could mean the end of globalization as we know it.

“The coronavirus pandemic could be the straw that breaks the camel’s back of economic globalization,” according to Robin Niblett, director of the think tank Chatham House, in a Foreign Policy article.

Specifically, the global supply chain is very much at risk. Tax deductions in the U.S. designed to bring back jobs in pharmaceuticals, medical supplies, electronics and auto manufacturing have led companies to invest heavily in production in this country in the last few years.

“The needs that surfaced during the pandemic to bolster supply chain resilience may further accelerate such moves,” according to Moody’s Investors Service Senior Vice President Robard Williams.

Social distancing brought mighty economies to their knees

The entire world’s economy has shrunk dramatically. The pandemic delivered the most severe blow to the U.S. economy since the Great Depression as gross domestic product collapsed and millions of jobs were lost.

“This recession was by far the deepest one in postwar history,” Richard Clarida, vice chair of the Federal Reserve, noted in a speech.

A robust economy is dependent upon the movement of goods and people. For instance, restaurants need people to meet, socialize and break bread together. Airlines and hotels need people to travel to conduct business or to see family and friends or new places.

But all that has been vastly reduced. And the effect of that social distancing has been deadly on many businesses. Restaurants have been among the hardest hit. According to Yelp data, more than 60% of restaurants in the U.S. have permanently closed, closely followed by retail stores that sell clothing and home decor (58%) and beauty stores and spas (42%). Airline travel is down around 70%, and hotel occupancy is at record lows.

“Social distancing has stilled our strong economy,” said Eric Rosengren, president and CEO of the Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.

Social distancing is exhausting but works in some places

What’s worse is that despite long and extensive social distancing, there are signs that it has not worked everywhere — especially in freer societies. In fact, more than lockdown orders, it is people’s fears that have a larger impact on their economic behavior, some researchers have found.

The latest signs of increased cases in the U.S. and Europe are even more disheartening for people who feel they have endured a lot.

So, why are governments continuing to rely on lockdowns? That’s because it’s proven that aggressive social distancing does work in countries where the state can enforce strict shutdowns.

In China, where severe lockdowns were enforced in many parts of the country, the coronavirus has been wrestled to the ground. In Wuhan, ground zero of the virus, recent reports cite crowded water parks and night markets. Domino’s Pizza recorded such a huge improvement in sales in the country in recent months that it prompted CEO Richard Allison to call China “a terrific success story in 2020.”

But the Chinese form of enforcement is hard to achieve in democratic societies, most of which are pinning their hopes on a vaccine.

Some of the largest cities in the West are putting in place even more draconian social distancing measures to combat the virus. Paris is under curfew starting at 9 each night. And in London, you can’t even visit or invite a neighbor over for dinner.

But it’s unclear if people in these societies will strictly follow these guidelines or how enforcement will work. It’s already taken a huge toll on the psyche of the populace of many countries. No wonder most people worry that the longer social distancing goes on, a higher price will be paid by households, society and the economy.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

ADRIAN WHITE: Underground economy is thriving – TheChronicleHerald.ca

Published

 on


There is no doubt that COVID-19 has changed the way businesses function in Cape Breton. The pandemic has forced many entrepreneurs to reshape operating strategies for financial survival.  

Think of the new safety protocols for restaurants to protect staff and customers from virus transmission. Think sporting events playing out before near-empty stadiums and instead focused heavily on revenues generated from media broadcast of the event.  

There are just too many changes to business practices to list here in this column including the growth of digitization in our economy but I wanted to single out a few examples to illustrate some telling impacts. 

One major impact comes from folks not feeling safe to travel outside the province or eat out in restaurants due to the pandemic. Instead, they are using some of those cash savings to fund home improvement projects right here in the Cape Breton economy. That is a good thing for our community and our workers and it supports the “Shop Local-Buy Local” mantra being promoted by the local business community. 

Demand in the home improvement sector has soared and is so strong that it has led to a shortage of building materials, a rapid rise in material costs and a shortage of skilled labour to take on those home improvement projects.  

Many new contractors have entered the home improvement business in 2020 and many anxious homeowners are in hot pursuit of their services. Sometimes these contractors show up when expected to do a job and sometimes not. This has been a long-standing problem with small contractors in Cape Breton.  

Some contractors present an official written quote including HST for the project leaving a paper trail to follow while other contractors are quite prepared to take cash from the customer thereby avoiding HST. Cash leaves little trail for CRA to follow when it comes to reporting taxable income. 

This practice leads me to shed some light on the underground economy and its impact on our well-being as a province. Statistics Canada defines the underground economy as “consisting of market-based activities, whether legal or illegal, that escape measurement because of their hidden, illegal or informal nature.”  

I use the construction industry as an easy-to-understand example but you can imagine other opportunities for tax avoidance including buying illegal cigarettes, street sold cannabis, cash tips, paying cash for services, Airbnb cash rentals, or offshore bank accounts not being reported to CRA. 

In Nova Scotia, according to Statistics Canada, the underground economy was estimated to be $1.28 billion in 2018. That is near 3 per cent of provincial GDP. This is revenue that escapes government taxation. Nova Scotia’s underground economy as a share of GDP is higher than the national average which is troubling. Taxes on $1.28 billion would go a long way to offset the forecasted 2020 Nova Scotia budget deficit of $853 million due to the pandemic. 

Some of the underground economy is driven by the fact Nova Scotia has the second-highest personal income tax rates in the country. It remains one of three remaining provinces in the country that still practices “bracket creep” on your personal income tax deduction by not adjusting it to CPI on your annual income tax return.  

The higher the taxes the more incentive it provides for individuals and companies to embrace tax avoidance. Alberta has one of the lowest personal income tax rates in Canada and no provincial sales tax. It abandoned “bracket creep” on its residents decades ago. It also has one of the lowest underground economy as a share of GDP rates in the country running at 1.8 percent of provincial GDP.  

British Columbia has the highest ratio at 3.7 percent of GDP. In Canada, the underground economy was valued at a whopping $61 billion in 2018 amounting to 2.7 per cent of national GDP.  

I can only imagine with the increased demand for home improvement projects in Canada due to the pandemic that underground economic activity will likely increase 50 per cent rising close to $90 billion for 2020. 

In Nova Scotia, residential construction accounts for over 25 percent of the estimated underground economy GDP.  The next six largest contributors to the underground economy amount to about 50 per cent of Nova Scotia’s underground economy. They are retail trade, accommodation/food services, finance/insurance/real estate, manufacturing, professional/technical services and health care/social assistance.   

If we want to grow the Nova Scotia economy and thereby increase tax revenues to pay for the services we all expect, we are going to have to rethink the tax burden on individuals and businesses to bring balance and fairness to the tax environment. It is one of the reasons we struggle to recruit doctors to Cape Breton. Above-average taxes in Nova Scotia hinder economic expansion. High taxes will continue to drive the underground economy and tax avoidance until we address them. 

Adrian White is CEO of NNF Inc, Business Consultants. He resides Sydney & Baddeck and can be contacted at awhite889@gmail.com.

RELATED:

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Economy

The Trump Economy – The New York Times

Published

 on


Want to get The Morning by email? Here’s the sign-up.

President Trump is not running a re-election campaign based mostly on policy. He has released no agenda for a second term, and the Republican Party did not publish a new platform at its convention.

But when Trump tells voters why he deserves to win re-election, he tends to focus on the economy. He created a prosperous economy, he says, and will do so again — better than Joe Biden would — once the coronavirus passes. I want to devote today’s newsletter to explaining the Trump economy, through four key points:

1. The economy was strong before the virus hit. Trump inherited a growing economy, and it kept growing on his watch. It accelerated a bit in his first two years in office, before slowing down again in 2019.

Credit…By The New York Times | Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2. Perhaps the best news: Wages were rising, even for lower-income workers. After more than a decade of economic growth, the labor market had become tight enough that employers were increasing pay more quickly than inflation was rising. The trend began under President Barack Obama and continued under Trump.

Credit…By The New York Times | Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

3. Trump deserves some credit. Josh Barro of New York magazine has argued that Trump’s overall economic record is problematic, partly because his tax cuts were so skewed to the rich — but also that Trump got some big decisions right. Most important, he appointed a Federal Reserve chairman, Jerome Powell, who focused on growth (rather than wrongly thinking inflation was a threat) and kept interest rates low.

4. But Trump also deserves some blame — including for the virus and the recession it caused. Trump’s economic policy geared almost completely toward lifting growth in the short term, while largely ignoring long-term dangers.

He increased the deficit, mostly to give wealthy households big tax cuts. He scrapped environment regulations, which increases the likelihood of costly climate destruction. And he hollowed out parts of the government, including its ability to respond to a pandemic.

(One year ago yesterday, Biden tweeted: “We are not prepared for a pandemic. Trump has rolled back progress President Obama and I made to strengthen global health security.”)

The bottom line: Much of the economy’s performance is beyond the control of a president. Trump had the good luck to take office with a far stronger economy than either of his predecessors — Obama and George W. Bush — enjoyed. Just look at the start of each president’s lines in this chart on job growth:

Credit…By The New York Times | Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Later, of course, Trump had the bad luck to have a global pandemic arrive during his re-election campaign.

He has tried to claim full credit for his good luck and deflect all blame for the bad news. But that’s not the fairest way to evaluate the Trump economy. Ultimately, he deserves solid marks for its performance during his first three years — and much worse marks for his long-term economic legacy.

For more: My colleague Patricia Cohen looked at Trump’s economic legacy in a story this weekend. The Wall Street Journal’s Jon Hilsenrath has also done so.

The 2020 Campaign

Credit…Erin Schaff/The New York Times
  • Biden will campaign in Georgia tomorrow, and Kamala Harris will visit Texas on Friday. Polls show a close race in both these states, which no Democratic presidential candidate has won in decades.

  • Trump plans to hold rallies in Pennsylvania today, and in Wisconsin and Michigan tomorrow. He won all three narrowly in 2016, but is now trailing in each.

  • The New Hampshire Union Leader endorsed Biden, the first time the newspaper has backed a Democrat for president in more than a century.

  • Fights broke out during a “Jews for Trump” rally in Manhattan. Seven people were arrested, and protesters screamed at Rudy Giuliani.

  • Among the revelations in a Times analysis of fund-raising data: In wealthier ZIP codes, Biden has raised nearly triple what Trump has; in less wealthy areas, they’re almost tied.

  • Daily polling diary: Research has suggested that local coronavirus deaths lead to a decline in voter support for Trump. And Wisconsin — a battleground state — is now in the midst of one of the nation’s worst outbreaks, The Times’s Nate Cohn notes.

THE VIRUS

Credit…Stefani Reynolds for The New York Times

other big stories

Credit…Hilary Swift for The New York Times
  • The Senate voted yesterday to limit debate on Amy Coney Barrett’s nomination and is expected to confirm her to the Supreme Court tonight. Every Democratic senator is set to vote against, as is Susan Collins of Maine, a Republican who is up for re-election.

  • Pope Francis named Wilton Gregory, the archbishop of Washington, a cardinal, making him the first Black American to achieve that rank.

  • Chileans overwhelmingly voted to scrap the country’s constitution — a dictatorship-era document — and create a new one.

  • The Los Angeles Dodgers beat the Tampa Bay Rays in Game 5 of the World Series, moving to within one win of a championship. One key play: a rare and unsuccessful attempted steal of home.

  • A Morning read: As protests raged in Minneapolis, Charles Adams, a police officer and high school football coach, called some of the players on his team. “Before I hit the streets, I have to tell you guys something,” he said. “Just know that I care.”

  • Lives Lived: Edith O’Hara founded the 13th Street Repertory Company, a mainstay of the Off Off Broadway scene, after leaving northwestern Pennsylvania for New York City in her 50s. She died at 103.


The Times can help you navigate the election — to separate fact from fiction, make sense of the polls and be sure your ballot counts. To support our efforts, please consider subscribing today.

Seven states have already passed laws that will eventually raise the minimum wage to $15. All seven are heavily Democratic: California, Connecticut, Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and New York.

This year, a more conservative state — Florida — will be voting on the policy. If the referendum passes, Florida’s minimum wage would gradually rise from its current level of $8.46 an hour to $15 an hour in 2026. After that, it would rise with inflation. Currently, no southeastern state has a minimum wage above $10, and most defer to the federal level of $7.25.

Credit…Wilfredo Lee/Associated Press

But progressive economic policies, like minimum-wage increases, tend to be popular even in red states. Ballot initiatives to expand Medicaid, for example, have passed in several red states, including Missouri, Oklahoma and Utah. And polling shows that a majority of Americans support expanding Medicare, spending more money on clean energy, increasing taxes on the wealthy — and raising the minimum wage.

If the Florida initiative passes, it will add to the momentum toward a higher minimum wage, through either ballot initiatives in other states or through federal policy. Biden favors a $15 federal minimum wage. Trump has said states should decide.

For more: The Times’s editorial board has made the case for a $15 minimum wage, and Michael Strain of Bloomberg Opinion has made the case against it.

Credit…Wesley White/Ocean Spray, via Associated Press

More than four decades after its release, Fleetwood Mac’s album “Rumours” returned to the Top 10 of the Billboard chart last week. Its resurgence was spurred by a viral TikTok video of a man named Nathan Apodaca, a potato worker in Idaho, longboarding along to the band’s song “Dreams” as he drank from a bottle of Cran-Raspberry juice.

It’s the latest example of TikTok’s influence on the music industry. “TikTok is an early indicator and trendsetter as far as seeding music, new and old,” the Times music reporter Joe Coscarelli said. “You might have a song like ‘Dreams’ that goes viral on TikTok, then the TikTok goes viral on Twitter and Instagram, then Spotify puts the song higher up on more playlists.”

From there, morning shows and local news may note the phenomenon, and it all leads to more people watching the music video or streaming the song. The effect can give old songs a second life, or jump-start new songs by relative unknowns, like Lil Nas X’s “Old Town Road” last year.

The dynamic is changing the music industry as well. Artists like Drake are teasing their music early on TikTok, and record labels pay TikTok stars to promote their songs.

On a recent episode of Popcast, the Times pop music critic Jon Caramanica went into more detail.


Credit…David Malosh for The New York Times

Roasted fish with sweet bell peppers comes together quickly for a healthy weeknight dinner. Mild, flaky fish like hake, cod or flounder are ideal to go with the garlicky parsley dressing.



The pangram from Friday’s Spelling Bee was toothpick. Today’s puzzle is above — or you can play online if you have a Games subscription.

Here’s today’s Mini Crossword, and a clue: Big drop of water? (five letters).


Thanks for spending part of your morning with The Times. See you tomorrow. — David

Correction: Friday’s newsletter switched the order of a couple of Trump’s sentences about the virus during the debate. The correct order is: “I take full responsibility. It’s not my fault that it came here. It’s China’s fault.”

P.S. The word “mouneh” appeared for the first time in The Times this weekend, as noted by the Twitter bot @NYT_first_said.

You can see today’s print front page here.

Today’s episode of “The Daily” is about suburban women voters. And I made a guest appearance on this week’s episode of “The Argument,” to talk about the 2020 campaign — and also about “Jeopardy!”

Lalena Fisher, Claire Moses, Ian Prasad Philbrick and Sanam Yar contributed to The Morning. You can reach the team at themorning@nytimes.com.

Sign up here to get this newsletter in your inbox.

Let’s block ads! (Why?)



Source link

Continue Reading

Trending