China looks to bounce back from virus, but its recovery will likely be hurt by surging global cases - CNBC | Canada News Media
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China looks to bounce back from virus, but its recovery will likely be hurt by surging global cases – CNBC

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Coronavirus infections in China have markedly declined in recent weeks, but the Asian giant’s economic recovery may be held back by the global outbreak, as countries around the world struggle to contain the rapidly spreading disease.

China has seen a drastic drop in infections — from hundreds of cases per day in February, to less than 50 each day this week.

The rate of resumption of work at its factories and provinces has also inched up, according to analysts tracking the progress of activities in the country. China had shut down most provinces in a bid to contain the outbreak, and roads, transportation networks as well as factories had been closed.

However, Steve Cochrane, chief Asia Pacific economist at Moody’s Analytics, told CNBC that the pace of recovery in China might not be as fast as hoped for — even if infections are slowing.

“It seems that we’re beginning to be on the back side of this now here in Asia, given that the number of infections is down. In China, the infections still remain fairly isolated in Hubei province, that’s a very good thing,” he said, referring to the epicenter of the outbreak in the country. “But I don’t see the recovery in China really coming on any more faster than we might have expected.”

The virus outbreak has now spread to China’s key trading partners, including South Korea, Japan, Europe, and increasingly the U.S.

ANZ Research

He explained that’s due to softening demand from the rest of the world, where cases are surging. Italy, Iran and South Korea have reported more than 7,000 cases each, while France, Spain and Germany each reported more than 1,200 cases, according toe the World Health Organization’s latest figures. 

In Europe, Italy — which has the highest number of cases outside China — has shut down the entire country. In the U.S., cases crossed 1,000 this week, and the virus is present in at least 35 states.

“Just as China may be able to get production up close to where it was last year, global demand is going to weaken, clearly from the U.S. and Europe. Europe is on the cusp of recession. The U.S. economy is strong but very vulnerable to the coronavirus,” Cochrane said.

Cochrane said weakening consumer sentiment worldwide would eliminate or reduce demand for goods from Asia, setting back the recovery for China and the rest of Asia.

He also pointed to highly complex supply chains, which have been hit by the lockdown in China, where many global firms have manufacturing facilities. “It’s no small feat to get them back working in a very, very efficient way.”

In addition, he said there are still difficulties in getting workers to return from their home provinces to work places, due to “regulatory issues such as health checks” that are holding them back. Most workers have been stuck in their home towns since the Lunar New Year holiday, which was extended due to the outbreak. Even if they return to their work places, which may be in a different province or city, they could be subject to a quarantine period.

In a note on Wednesday, ANZ Research estimated that most economic activities in China will likely return to normal by the second week of April.

But it said a resumption of economic activities “does not guarantee a sharp V-shaped economic rebound,” referring to economic cycles that see a steep fall before recovering sharply. Given that the pandemic started earlier in China than in other countries, the world’s second-largest economy has seen a “severe impact” in the past two months.

“In addition, the virus outbreak has now spread to China’s key trading partners, including South Korea, Japan, Europe, and increasingly the US,” wrote ANZ Research economists Raymond Yeung and Zhaopeng Xing.

“Global demand will become increasingly uncertain. China will need to brace itself for the challenging growth outlook,” they wrote.

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Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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