(Bloomberg) — Chinese markets are set to reopen after the Golden Week holidays against an uncertain global market backdrop, which may temper optimism from the spending boom at home.
A lot has happened overseas while mainland markets were shut. Risk assets were hammered as renewed concern about higher-for-longer US interest rates spurred a Treasuries selloff that rippled through world markets, while the surprise attack on Israel by the Palestinian group Hamas added a fresh layer of uncertainty. On the domestic front, however, tourism revenue from the holidays surged year-on-year, adding to bets that China’s economy has likely bottomed.
The conflicting signals set the stage for a choppy start for mainland equities on Monday. A gauge of Chinese shares listed in Hong Kong rose on Friday, helping trim its losses since Sept. 28 — when onshore markets last traded — to 0.3%. Meanwhile, an index of the nation’s US-listed stocks has gained 0.3% in the period. The offshore yuan has weakened about 0.2% against the dollar.
Oil soared more than 4% and Treasury futures jumped in early Asian trading Monday as traders reacted to the Israel attacks. Australian stocks edged higher while equity futures for Hong Kong rose after the S&P 500 advanced 1.2% Friday.
“The Golden Week consumption data should give more confidence to markets that demand is stabilizing, which may help boost sentiment for consumer and service sectors,” said Marvin Chen, a strategist with Bloomberg Intelligence. “But easing domestic worries come with rising external headwinds from markets adjusting to higher-for-longer Fed rates.”
Traders had been pinning their hopes on a holiday consumption boost to provide a new catalyst for the sluggish market. Travel and spending surged compared with lockdown-hit 2022, with 826 million travelers representing a 71% increase from last year. Spending jumping nearly 130%. Other key sets of data released during the break also showed the broader economy is on the mend, though far from roaring back.
READ: China Holiday Spending +153% vs 2019 in Meituan Data: News
Investors will weigh these modest improvements against concerns about tighter Federal Reserve policy following a hotter-than-expected US jobs report. China is seen at particular risk as a wider interest-rate gap with the US can increase pressure on the yuan and accelerate a capital flight.
The CSI 300 Index, a benchmark of onshore Chinese stocks, was down 4.7% for the year before heading into the break. A further 4.9% decline will see it erase all its gains from the reopening rally that took off in October 2022. Reaching that grim milestone may embolden China skeptics, who continue to shun the market due to deepening property-sector woes and geopolitical concerns.
The housing market slump remains a major overhang, with the crisis embroiling debt-ridden developer China Evergrande Group and other key builders showing little signs of abating. Home sales continued to post double-digit declines from a year earlier in September, a traditionally busy season for builders, underscoring weak buyer confidence despite a recent slew of property easing measures.
Some investors, however, say this year’s relentless selloff has created some buying opportunities. There are also hopes that the upcoming third plenum of the 20th Party Congress, a gathering of top leaders to discuss major economic and reform issues, will offer hints of further stimulus. The meeting, to be held toward the end of October and early November, could act as a positive catalyst, said Chen of Bloomberg Intelligence.
“We can expect a recovery toward the end of the year or early next year with the economy coming toward the end of the de-stocking cycle, and as we see more coordinated policy efforts to tackle the weak economy,” said Elizabeth Kwik, investment director of Asian equities at abrdn Plc.
For now, winning back foreign investors is proving to be hard. Global funds sold Chinese shares on a net basis for a second consecutive month in September, trimming their exposure to the lowest level since 2020. Pessimism is such that “short China equities” emerged as one of the biggest convictions among money managers in the latest Bank of America Corp. monthly survey.
“We have economic data showing improvement so that’s a good start, but markets are skeptical given how confidence was badly damaged,” said Christopher Wong, FX strategist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp. in Singapore. It will take time for Chinese markets to recover, he added, as “sentiment needs to recover and confidence needs to be repaired.”
–With assistance from Iris Ouyang.
(Updates with markets details in fourth paragraph)
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
