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China Premier Pledges to Shore Up Employment as Economy Sputters

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(Bloomberg) — China will take further measures to stabilize employment as the country grapples with a flagging economy battered by the Covid-19 pandemic and a crumbling real-estate market.

The government will support businesses by continuing to implement previously announced relief measures and removing bottlenecks, the official Xinhua news agency reported, citing a decision made at the State Council’s executive meeting on Wednesday, which was chaired by Premier Li Keqiang.

“The current employment situation has turned for the better, yet pressure remains significant and must not be underestimated,” Xinhua quoted Li as saying. “The government must continue to put employment front and center, and do everything possible to stabilize and increase jobs.”

China’s employment pressure started rising late last year, with widespread Covid outbreaks across the country this year forcing the authorities to lock down cities under the country’s stringent Covid Zero policy. Persistent weakness in the domestic property sector, which accounts for about a quarter of China’s economy, is also hurting jobs.

The country’s surveyed jobless rate in urban areas is near 6%, up sharply from just under 5% at the end of last year. That likely fell to 5.7% in June, according to the median forecast for data that will be released Friday.

Read: China’s Bumper Data Week Will Set Tone for Economic Stimulus

Beijing has adopted a series of measures, such as cutting borrowing costs, easing home purchase curbs and boosting fiscal spending in order to meet the country’s economic growth target of around 5.5% for this year. President Xi Jinping recently signaled he’s willing to sacrifice some short-term growth to keep Covid contained, and most economists forecast the country will not be able to reach the target.

Compared to April and May, the employment situation has turned for the better in June thanks to the measures taken to support the job market this year, Xinhua said. However, keeping employment stable remains “a daunting task” and requires further efforts, it said.

The State Council, China’s cabinet, vowed to implement the following policies to stabilize jobs:

  • Deferral of social insurance contributions by employers, refunding unemployment insurance premiums for some enterprises, and job creation subsidies
  • Up to 200,000 yuan ($30,000) of guaranteed loans will continue to be provided to eligible business start-ups and self-employed households. Local governments should earmark funds to help start-ups lower rent and other costs
  • Intensify efforts to boost employment of “key groups” such as college graduates and migrant workers
  • Efforts will be made to ensure at least one member of zero-employment families can get a job as quickly as possible
  • Employment discrimination against people who have recovered from Covid-19 infections will be strictly prohibited
  • Local governments will be held accountable for their employment targets

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Liberals announce expansion to mortgage eligibility, draft rights for renters, buyers

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OTTAWA – Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says the government is making some changes to mortgage rules to help more Canadians to purchase their first home.

She says the changes will come into force in December and better reflect the housing market.

The price cap for insured mortgages will be boosted for the first time since 2012, moving to $1.5 million from $1 million, to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

On Aug. 1 eligibility for the 30-year amortization was changed to include first-time buyers purchasing a newly-built home.

Justice Minister Arif Virani is also releasing drafts for a bill of rights for renters as well as one for homebuyers, both of which the government promised five months ago.

Virani says the government intends to work with provinces to prevent practices like renovictions, where landowners evict tenants and make minimal renovations and then seek higher rents.

The government touts today’s announced measures as the “boldest mortgage reforms in decades,” and it comes after a year of criticism over high housing costs.

The Liberals have been slumping in the polls for months, including among younger adults who say not being able to afford a house is one of their key concerns.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales up 1.4% in July at $71B

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says manufacturing sales rose 1.4 per cent to $71 billion in July, helped by higher sales in the petroleum and coal and chemical product subsectors.

The increase followed a 1.7 per cent decrease in June.

The agency says sales in the petroleum and coal product subsector gained 6.7 per cent to total $8.6 billion in July as most refineries sold more, helped by higher prices and demand.

Chemical product sales rose 5.3 per cent to $5.6 billion in July, boosted by increased sales of pharmaceutical and medicine products.

Sales of wood products fell 4.8 per cent for the month to $2.9 billion, the lowest level since May 2023.

In constant dollar terms, overall manufacturing sales rose 0.9 per cent in July.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX gains almost 100 points, U.S. markets also higher ahead of rate decision

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TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets climbed to their best week of the year.

“It’s been almost a complete opposite or retracement of what we saw last week,” said Philip Petursson, chief investment strategist at IG Wealth Management.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.

The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.

While last week saw a “healthy” pullback on weaker economic data, this week investors appeared to be buying the dip and hoping the central bank “comes to the rescue,” said Petursson.

Next week, the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to cut its key interest rate for the first time in several years after it significantly hiked it to fight inflation.

But the magnitude of that first cut has been the subject of debate, and the market appears split on whether the cut will be a quarter of a percentage point or a larger half-point reduction.

Petursson thinks it’s clear the smaller cut is coming. Economic data recently hasn’t been great, but it hasn’t been that bad either, he said — and inflation may have come down significantly, but it’s not defeated just yet.

“I think they’re going to be very steady,” he said, with one small cut at each of their three decisions scheduled for the rest of 2024, and more into 2025.

“I don’t think there’s a sense of urgency on the part of the Fed that they have to do something immediately.

A larger cut could also send the wrong message to the markets, added Petursson: that the Fed made a mistake in waiting this long to cut, or that it’s seeing concerning signs in the economy.

It would also be “counter to what they’ve signaled,” he said.

More important than the cut — other than the new tone it sets — will be what Fed chair Jerome Powell has to say, according to Petursson.

“That’s going to be more important than the size of the cut itself,” he said.

In Canada, where the central bank has already cut three times, Petursson expects two more before the year is through.

“Here, the labour situation is worse than what we see in the United States,” he said.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.

— With files from The Associated Press

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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