China should consider boosting consumption as real estate slump drags on, IMF says as it downgrades forecast | Canada News Media
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China should consider boosting consumption as real estate slump drags on, IMF says as it downgrades forecast

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China’s old economic model of relying on investments in real estate has “run its course” and the government needs to consider boosting consumption to drive recovery, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The slowdown in real estate is the main reason for China’s sluggishness, Krishna Srinivasan, director of the Asia and Pacific department at the IMF said. “There has not been a comprehensive response to the problem and that has weighed both on investment in the real estate sector and consumer confidence.”

Although China has been trying to rebalance its economy to focus more on consumption-led growth, demand remains weak and is not growing as quickly as before the pandemic.

“One would have hoped that after China reopened, consumption would come back very strongly, but that has been undermined by confidence not coming back in the real estate sector,” Srinivasan said. “A lot of the wealth is in the real estate sector, and that has not been resolved.”

The IMF trimmed its 2023 growth forecast for China’s economy from 5.2% to 5% in its October update of its World Economic Outlook. It also reduced its 2024 forecast from 4.5% to 4.2%.

Slower growth in China is an “important risk for the global economy,” the report said.

The IMF expects global growth will slow from 3.5% in 2022 to 3% this year, before falling further to 2.9% in 2024.

“Growth remains slow and uneven, with growing global divergences. The global economy is limping along, not sprinting,” the fund said.

Consumption remains weak

Some economists are more bearish than the IMF on China’s recovery and believe its economy will grow at an even slower pace this year.

“The IMF’s view isn’t so pessimistic,” said Erica Tay, director of macro research at Maybank.

She explained that the bank downgraded its China growth forecast to 4.8% this year as it does not see the same engines that drove China’s growth in the first half of the year to be as strong.

“We are worried about consumption in the next few quarters. Revenge spending is already starting to fade off and consumer spending is expected to settle down at a weaker level than pre-pandemic,” Tay told CNBC.

Passengers arrive at the Beijing railway station on the first day of peak travel ahead of the National Day holidays in China’s capital city on Sept. 29, 2023.
Jade Gao | Afp | Getty Images

Tay noted that signs of “revenge travel fatigue” were even visible during China’s big “Golden Week” holiday during the first week of October.

Maybank predicts that the country’s consumption sector will grow approximately 6% this year, and 4% in 2024.

“Consumption of durable goods is much lower than expected because people are worried about their future. So why buy a car if they don’t know what’s going to happen next month? Why buy a house if they don’t know what’s going to happen next year,” said Alicia Garcia-Herrero, chief economist for Asia-Pacific at Natixis.

It’s not just economic scarring from the pandemic, she said, “All this is structural. When your economy ages, you consume much less and you don’t have big expectations about the future.”

A different story for India

In contrast, the fund expects India’s economy will grow 6.3% in 2023, an increase from an earlier forecast of 6.1%.

“India is on the map. There is a lot of pent-up demand and sentiment is very positive. There is a sense that India is back on the frontline and the propaganda in the media helps consumption too,” Garcia-Herrero said.

While the IMF maintained it’s 2024 projection of 6.3% growth in India, economists said the country faces a slew of headwinds.

“Widening current account deficit, resurging inflation and heightened geopolitical tensions would be the major headwinds for India,” Garcia-Herrero warned.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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