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China's Bonds Rally on Signs of Policy Easing to Aid Economy – Bloomberg

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China’s government bonds rallied, sending the benchmark 10-year yield to the lowest level since August, after the government indicated that the central bank could loosen its policy to support the economy.

The yield on the most actively traded 10-year sovereign notes tumbled seven basis points to 2.99%, while futures contracts of the same tenor jumped by the most in over a year. A gauge of trader expectations for borrowing costs in the future slid to the lowest level since January.

The move came after the State Council hinted that the People’s Bank of China could make more cash available to banks in order to boost lending to businesses, including by cutting the amount of money they have to hold in reserve. A potential easing could provide the bond market with much-needed liquidity to absorb the flood of local government debt sales as a swathe of policy loans mature in the second half of the year.

“This is an important dovish shift and is likely to drive unwind of residual policy normalization fear and expectations, and render some support to broad risk assets,” Citigroup Inc. strategists led by Gaurav Garg wrote in a note. The yield on China’s 10-year government bonds could fall to 2.90% to 2.95% as a result, they added.

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After leading the way in weaning its economy off stimulus, China is showing its willingness to support businesses as the recovery begins to slow. The potential move would be in stark contrast to other major central banks that are looking to unwind some easing measures as their economies recover from the pandemic-driven slump.

A broad step toward policy easing would also be a shift from China’s recent focus on doing just the minimum to cater for short-term and one-year cash needs. The PBOC has added just 10 billion yuan ($1.5 billion) into the banking system via open market operations each day since March, apart from five sessions in June when interbank funding costs surged ahead of the quarter end.

Strategists from UBS Group AG and Australia & New Zealand Banking Group Ltd. are forecasting a reserve ratio cut for China’s banks in the coming weeks to offset some of the 4.15 trillion yuan of the medium-term lending facilities coming due by the end of the year.

China’s bond rally kicked off on Wednesday after a former central bank official called for a rate cut in the second half. The 10-year bond futures posted what was this year’s biggest intraday jump. Open interest in the derivatives — a measure of outstanding positions — rose to a record 167,000 contracts, signaling that traders are making net long bets on lower yields.

Yuan Sheltered

The impact of a likely easing on the yuan is expected to be limited.

“Policy divergence of the Fed and the PBoC could narrow yield differentials and chip away the carry advantage of the renminbi,” said Fiona Lim, senior currency strategist at Malayan Banking Berhad. “However, the potential support of such a monetary policy action for the real economy and domestic assets may mitigate the impact on the renminbi.”

The yuan and Chinese stocks fell alongside emerging Asia peers amid risk-off sentiment on Thursday. The yuan declined 0.2% to 6.4826 per dollar while the CSI 300 Index dropped as much as 1.2%.

Click Here for more analyst comments.

— With assistance by Tania Chen

(Updates second and last paragraphs with latest prices)

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    Economy

    Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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    OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

    Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

    Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

    Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

    Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

    Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

    Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

    According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

    That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

    People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

    That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

    Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

    That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Economy

    Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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    The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

    The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

    CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

    This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

    While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

    Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

    The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

    Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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    Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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    As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

    Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

    A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

    More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

    Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

    “It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

    “It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

    American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

    It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

    “A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

    “It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

    A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

    Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

    “Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

    Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

    With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

    “With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

    “By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

    This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

    The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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