China’s Economy Has Picked Up Traits Reminiscent Of The Great Depression. | Canada News Media
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China’s Economy Has Picked Up Traits Reminiscent Of The Great Depression.

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China’s economy suffers many problems, and some are beginning to look like those that made it so hard for America to break out of its Great Depression in the 1930s. True, China has not experienced a stock market crash. That is different. What China does have in common with that historic America is the loss of confidence in the economy’s structures and in its future. For America, the crash destroyed confidence. For China the problem lies in the policies of now President-for-life Xi Jinping. Prospects are far from promising.

One key sign of this undesirable condition is the drop in bank lending. Always an indicator of business and consumer spending plans, Chinese demands for bank credit in December were, according to the People’s Bank for China (PBOC), 16% below year-ago levels and almost 20% below consensus expectations. This picture is all the more remarkable because Beijing has engaged in considerable stimulus spending on infrastructure, and the PBOC has reduced interest rates during the past year and lavishly provided markets and financial institutions with liquidity, increasing the broad money supply some 9.7%.

The most likely explanation why Chinese people and businesses have failed to take advantage of the infrastructure spending and this easy credit is that they see little prospect for gain. They have lost any sense that things will improve, at least that they will improve enough make the risk of going into debt worthwhile. According to Beijing’s National Bureau of Statistics, the nation’s consumer confidence index has fallen almost 10 percent from its high of last March and stands at a lower level than ever, even during the pandemic and the needless lockdowns and quarantines that followed it under Beijing’s zero-Covid policies. Business confidence has picked up slightly from late 2023 but remains depressed by just about any historic standard even going back to the early part of this century when data collection began.

This lack of confidence — this wariness of borrowing and spending – is what so resembles the problems the United States faced in the Great Depression. The great economist John Maynard Keynes explained the nature of the problem at the time. He noted how stimulus from Washington or a flood of money from the Federal Reserve can only get the economy moving if consumers and businesses have enough faith in the future to follow it. If their lack of confidence impels them to refuse, the stimulus will quickly run its course and the economy, after perhaps a brief improvement, will fall back into slow growth or decline. The same is true of monetary stimulus. No matter how much liquidity the central bank provides, a lack of confidence will prevent businesses and consumers from using it. He called it the “liquidity trap.”

Most of the blame for China’s problem comes not from a stock crash but rather from the policies of President Xi Jinping. He has made four crucial contributions to this mess. His first was his decision in 2019-20 to suddenly withdraw Beijing’s long-provided support for residential property development. That decision caused a collapse in this once-important sector in China’s economy and also a drop in property values with devastating effects on household wealth. His second mistake was to offer an at best tepid response to the unfolding economic troubles. From the first failures in 2021 until only a few months ago, Beijing pretended that matters, contrary to reality, required nothing of the authorities, which should instead have provided support for financial markets. Because of this lack of support, the problems of the property sector and household wealth metastasized throughout China’s financial system, further hurting the economy and eroding confidence.

Zero-Covid counts as Xi’s third contribution to China’s woes. That policy kept the Chinese economy under lockdowns and quarantines for at least 18 months longer than the rest of the world. His goal was the impossible one of eradicating the virus. And in pursuit of that dream, he held back China’s economy and created the sense among people that they could no longer count on a regular income and among businesses that there was little sense in expansion. If that were not enough, Xi also engaged during this time in rhetoric castigating private Chinese business, insisting that managers and owners give up the pursuit of profits to follow the Communist Party’s agenda. More than all else, this sort of talk made Chinese business owners wary of the future and unwilling to invest in hiring or expansion.

Despite these similarities to the root cause of the Depression in 1930s America, it would be too bold to forecast a Great Depression for China. It is not however too bold to forecast that circumstances will hold back China’s economic prospects for some time to come, especially if Xi and his colleagues in the Forbidden City fail to wake up to the need to change policy so that individual Chinese and business can recover confidence. Such a change may be a forlorn hope, but it is needed anyway.

 

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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