China's economy is still growing. But the recovery is slowing down - CNN | Canada News Media
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China's economy is still growing. But the recovery is slowing down – CNN

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GDP grew 7.9% in the April-to-June quarter compared with the same period a year ago, China’s National Bureau of Statistics said Thursday.
That rate of growth was significantly slower than the 18.3% year-on-year increase China registered in the first quarter — though that record-breaking figure largely reflected how much the economy slumped in early 2020, as the coronavirus pandemic was taking hold.
The latest figure was also a bit weaker than expected. Analysts polled by Reuters predicted that China’s economy would expand 8.1% in the second quarter.
Because China’s initial recovery last year was so rapid, the country has “basically fully recovered,” said Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist for Capital Economics.
“In fact, it’s above its pre-virus trend,” he told CNN Business. “There’s just a lot less room for it to continue to grow rapidly, so it’s hitting against those constraints, and that’s why we’re starting to see those growth rates weakened quite considerably.”

Recent warning signs

The Chinese economy has been flashing some troubling signs in recent months. Record commodity prices drove factory inflation to the highest levels in more than a decade, while supply chain disruptions caused by shipping backlogs and an energy shortage held back factory production.
Growth in the services sector has also slowed recently, as a Covid-19 outbreak in southern China and subsequent containment measures curbed consumer and business activity.
“We are facing a complicated domestic and international environment, especially a rise in commodity prices, which has put significant cost pressure on business,” said Liu Aihua, an NBS spokeswoman, at a press conference in Beijing on Thursday. She cited a need to “properly handle” risks and help small and medium-sized businesses grow.
The government also released data showing that some production has slowed in recent month. Industrial output increased 8.3% in June from a year prior, slightly easing from May’s 8.8% growth. Output in auto manufacturing dropped more than 4% last month, compared to a year earlier, which Liu attributed mainly to the ongoing chip shortage.

Uneven recovery

Domestic demand, though, remains the weak link, according to Yue Su, principal economist for The Economist Intelligence Unit.
Retail sales growth slowed to 12.1% in June, down from 12.4% in May, according to the data released Thursday. That’s the slowest rate of growth this year.
“China’s Q2 GDP data continues to indicate uneven recovery,” Yue said, adding that retail sales haven’t yet recovered to trends seen before the pandemic.
She said reviving domestic demand is going to be “challenging,” as households are still stuck with budgeting their limited time and money.
Unemployment is also cause for concern.
The urban unemployment rate held steady at 5% in June, unchanged from May. But the jobless rate among young people increased, jumping to 15.4% for those between the ages of 16 and 24 by the end of June, compared with 13.6% three months earlier.
“We are indeed facing big employment pressure,” said Liu from NBS, noting that the number of university graduates hit a new record of nearly 9.1 million people this year. “We must continue to give priority to stabilizing employment and create more jobs.”

Still on target

Even though the recovery of the world’s second largest economy is pulling back, China is still on track to exceed its annual growth target this year.
“Overall, China’s economy looks to be on track for recovery, with the 6% annual growth goal in reach,” Chaoping Zhu, global market strategist for JP Morgan Asset Management, wrote in a Thursday research note. Beijing set that growth target in early March as it signaled a need to get back on track with President Xi Jinping’s longterm goals for the economy.
The country has also enjoyed some other good news recently. On Wednesday, the National Health Commission said that China has administered more than 1.4 billion doses of Covid-19 vaccines, meaning the country has vaccinated half of its population with at least one dose.
And earlier this week, Beijing said that exports surged more than 30% in June compared with the same period in 2019, a sign that global demand for Chinese-made goods is strong.
“Resilient external demand could help offset some domestic pressure and support aggregate growth, even if strong export growth looks unsustainable,” Zhu said.
— Kristie Lu Stout and CNN’s Beijing bureau contributed to this report.

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

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