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China's economy loses momentum as COVID-19 curbs hit factories, consumers – The Globe and Mail

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People carry bags as they visit the Wangfujing shopping street in Beijing, on Nov. 14.Ng Han Guan/The Associated Press

China’s economy suffered a broad slowdown in October as factory output grew more slowly than expected and retail sales fell for the first time in five months, underscoring faltering demand at home and abroad.

The world’s second-largest economy is facing a series of headwinds including protracted COVID-19 curbs, global recession risks and a property downturn. In a sign of persistent weakness in sector, data on Tuesday also showed property investment falling at its fastest pace since early 2020 in October.

The downbeat data poses a challenge for Chinese policy-makers as they steer the $17-trillion dollar economy through choppy waters, following recent moves to ease some COVID curbs and give financial support to the struggling property sector.

“October activity growth broadly slowed and missed market expectations, pointing to a weak start to Q4 as a worsening COVID situation, prolonged property downturn and slower export growth more than offset continued policy stimulus,” analysts at Goldman Sachs said in a note.

Industrial output rose 5.0 per cent in October from a year earlier, missing expectations for a 5.2 per cent gain in a Reuters poll and slowing from the 6.3 per cent growth seen in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed on Tuesday.

Retail sales, a gauge of consumption, fell for the first time since May, when Shanghai was under a city-wide lockdown. Sales dropped 0.5 per cent, against expectations for a 1.0 per cent rise and compared with a 2.5 per cent gain in September.

A week-long National Day holiday did little to boost consumption in October, traditionally a popular month for domestic travels.

COVID outbreaks widened across the country in October, disrupting the pandemic-sensitive services sector, including the restaurant industry. China’s catering revenue slumped 8.1 per cent, down sharply from a 1.7 per cent drop in September, NBS data showed.

In response to the weak data, investment bank JPMorgan revised down its year-on-year GDP forecast for China in the fourth quarter to 2.7 per cent from a prior 3.4 per cent, while Citi also trimmed to 3.7 per cent from 4.6 per cent previously.

Domestic COVID containment measures were placing a “huge” pressure on the economy, said NBS spokesperson Fu Linghui, adding that downside risks from the global economy were rising.

“The impact from the triple pressures on economic operations – shrinking demand, supply shocks and weakening expectations – is growing,” said Fu at a news conference in Beijing.

The economic outlook remains gloomy despite Beijing’s move to ease some COVID curbs, said Zichun Huang, economist at Capital Economics.

“With exports cooling, the property sector still in the doldrums and the zero-COVID policy likely to remain in place longer than many hope, the near-term outlook is gloomy.”

Despite the disappointing figures, Chinese stocks rose on Tuesday on signs of easing Sino-U.S. tensions after a meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and Chinese leader Xi Jinping, while Beijing’s latest supportive steps also lifted sentiment.

Property investment fell 16.0 per cent year-on-year in October – its biggest drop since January-February 2020, according to Reuters calculations based on NBS data. It slumped 12.1 per cent in September.

Property sales measured by floor area dropped 23.2 per cent year-year in October, falling for a 15th straight month, with buyers reluctant to take on more debt as the economy slows amid protracted COVID restrictions.

China’s property sector has slowed sharply as the government has sought to restrict excessive borrowing. A plan to shore up liquidity outlined by Chinese regulators on Sunday sent Chinese property stocks and bonds soaring on Monday.

Chinese financial regulator said in a notice published on Monday it will allow property developers to access some presale housing funds, in the latest move to relieve the liquidity crunch.

“It is clear that new policies to boost domestic demand are needed to refuel China’s fragile recovery. Sluggish consumption and faltering property investment remain dawdlers, due to still-weak expectations on household income and macro growth,” said Bruce Pang, chief economist at Jones Lang Lasalle.

Fixed asset investment expanded 5.8 per cent in the first 10 month of the year, versus expectations for a 5.9 per cent rise and growth of 5.9 per cent in January-September.

Hiring remained low among companies growing increasingly wary about their finances.

The nationwide survey-based jobless rate stayed at 5.5 per cent in October, unchanged from September. The survey-based jobless rate in 31 major cities picked up to 6.0 per cent from 5.8 per cent in September.

The country is on track to miss its annual growth target of around 5.5 per cent, analysts say. Economists in a Reuters poll expect the economy to grow 3.2 per cent in 2022.

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Economy

B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Nova Scotia bill would kick-start offshore wind industry without approval from Ottawa

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HALIFAX – The Nova Scotia government has introduced a bill that would kick-start the province’s offshore wind industry without federal approval.

Natural Resources Minister Tory Rushton says amendments within a new omnibus bill introduced today will help ensure Nova Scotia meets its goal of launching a first call for offshore wind bids next year.

The province wants to offer project licences by 2030 to develop a total of five gigawatts of power from offshore wind.

Rushton says normally the province would wait for the federal government to adopt legislation establishing a wind industry off Canada’s East Coast, but that process has been “progressing slowly.”

Federal legislation that would enable the development of offshore wind farms in Nova Scotia and Newfoundland and Labrador has passed through the first and second reading in the Senate, and is currently under consideration in committee.

Rushton says the Nova Scotia bill mirrors the federal legislation and would prevent the province’s offshore wind industry from being held up in Ottawa.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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