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China's economy may face greater downward pressure in 2020, Premier Li Keqiang says – The Globe and Mail

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Chinese Premier Li Keqiang said the government is on track to achieve its key economic targets this year despite difficulties.

CHALINEE THIRASUPA/Reuters

China’s economy could face more downward pressure in 2020 than it did this year, but the government will take steps to keep growth within a reasonable range, state television on Thursday quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying.

The government will strive to stabilize economic growth while promoting reforms and preventing risks, Li was quoted as saying.

“Next year, China’s economic development is likely to encounter greater downward pressure and face a more complex situation,” Li said.

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The government is on track to achieve its key economic targets this year despite difficulties, Li said.

China’s economic growth slowed to 6.0% in the third quarter, a near 30-year low, but full-year growth is expected to be within the government’s target of 6% to 6.5%.

Growth in China’s industrial and retail sectors beat expectations in November, as government support propped up demand in the world’s second-largest economy and amid easing trade hostilities with Washington.

China plans to set a lower economic growth target of around 6% in 2020, relying on increased state infrastructure spending to ward off a sharper slowdown, policy sources said.

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Economy

Annual inflation falls to 1.6% in September, raises odds of 50-basis-point rate cut

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OTTAWA – The chances of a half-percentage point interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada became more likely Tuesday after Statistics Canada reported the annual inflation rate fell to 1.6 per cent in September.

Economist Tu Nguyen of accounting and consultancy firm RSM Canada said she had expected the inflation rate to remain close to the central bank’s two per cent target, where it was in August, for a few more months.

“This is one of the instances where I’m happy to be wrong,” she said.

Nguyen said while the Bank of Canada has favoured a slow and gradual pace of 25-basis-point cuts each time, the inflation report raises the odds of a 50-basis-point cut.

“It’s clear that we are well behind the curve when it comes to rate cuts,” she said.

The inflation report is the last major piece of economic data before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate decision on Oct. 23 when it will also update its economic forecasts in its monetary policy report.

Statistics Canada said Tuesday lower gasoline prices were the main driver of the drop in the overall inflation rate for September as drivers paid less to fill up than they did last year.

Gasoline prices in September fell 10.7 per cent compared with a year earlier. Excluding gasoline, the annual pace of inflation was 2.2 per cent in September.

Meanwhile, rent prices increased at a slower pace in the month but remained elevated as they rose 8.2 per cent compared with a year ago following a year-over-year gain of 8.9 per cent in August.

Statistics Canada said prices for food purchased from stores rose faster than headline inflation as they increased 2.4 per cent in September, the same rate as in August. Prices for fresh or frozen beef gained 9.2 per cent, while edible fats and oils rose 7.8 per cent and eggs increased five per cent.

Prices for food purchased from restaurants rose 3.5 per cent compared with 3.4 per cent in August.

The Bank of Canada, which has a target of two per cent for overall inflation, has cut its key interest rate three times so far this year to bring it to 4.25 per cent.

Governor Tiff Macklem has said it is reasonable to expect more interest rate cuts are coming, given the progress made on inflation, but the pace and timing of cuts will depend on the central bank’s evaluation of the economic data.

In September, Macklem signalled a willingness to change the pace of cuts, if circumstances warrant.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 15, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Economy

S&P/TSX up more than 200 points, U.S. markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.

The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Economy adds 47,000 jobs in September, unemployment rate falls to 6.5 per cent

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OTTAWA – The economy added 47,000 jobs in September, while the unemployment rate declined for the first time since January to 6.5 per cent, Statistics Canada reported on Friday.

The agency says youth and women aged 25 to 54 drove employment gains last month, while full-time employment saw its largest gain since May 2022.

The overall job gains followed four consecutive months of little change, the agency said.

The unemployment rate has been steadily climbing over the past year and a half, hitting 6.6 per cent in August.

Inflation that month was two per cent, the lowest level in more than three years as lower gas prices helped it hit the Bank of Canada’s inflation target.

The central bank has cut its key interest rate three times this year, and is widely expected to keep cutting as inflation has subsided and the broader trend points to a weakening in the labour market.

Despite the job gains in September, the employment rate was lower in the month, reflecting continued growth in Canada’s population.

Statistics Canada said since the employment rate saw its most recent peak at 62.4 per cent in January and February 2023, it’s been following a downward trend as population growth has outpaced employment growth.

On a year-over-year basis, employment was up by 1.5 per cent in September, while the population aged 15 and older in the Labour Force Survey grew 3.6 per cent.

The information, culture and recreation industry saw employment rise 2.6 per cent between August and September, after seven months of little change, Statistics Canada said, with the increase concentrated in Quebec.

The wholesale and retail trade industry saw its first increase since January at 0.8 per cent, while employment in professional, scientific and technical services was up 1.1 per cent.

Average hourly wages among employees rose 4.6 per cent year-over-year to $35.59, a slowdown from the five-per-cent increase in August.

The unemployment rate among Black and South Asian Canadians between 25 and 54 rose year-over-year in September and was significantly higher than the unemployment rate for people who were not racialized and not Indigenous.

Black Canadians in that age group saw their unemployment rate rise to 11 per cent last month while for South Asian Canadians it was 7.3 per cent. For non-racialized, non-Indigenous people, it rose to 4.4 per cent.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.

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