By Kevin Yao
BEIJING (Reuters) – China’s economy likely returned to modest growth in the second quarter after a record contraction, as lockdown measures ended and policymakers announced more stimulus to combat the shock from the coronavirus crisis, according to a Reuters poll.
The world’s second-largest economy likely grew 2.5% in April-June from a year earlier, reversing a 6.8% decline in the first quarter – the first contraction since at least 1992 when official quarterly gross domestic product (GDP) records started, the poll showed.
But the expected growth rate would still be the weakest expansion on record.
Forecasts by 55 analysts polled by Reuters ranged from a
3.1% contraction in gross domestic product (GDP) to a 4.0% expansion in the second quarter, reflecting uncertainty over the pace of recovery.
China’s services sector, which is dominated by smaller companies, has not rebounded as quickly as industrial production, though there are some signs that consumer confidence is gradually improving.
On a quarterly basis, GDP is expected to have grown 9.6% in April-June, compared with a decline of 9.8% in the previous
quarter.
The government has rolled out a raft of measures, including more fiscal spending, tax relief and cuts in lending rates and banks’ reserve requirements to revive the virus-hit economy and support employment.
Still, analysts say the recovery remains fragile, as rising coronavirus inflections in some countries overshadow improved demand for Chinese exports while heavy domestic job losses and lingering health concerns have kept consumers cautious.
Data on Tuesday showed the country’s imports in June rose for the first time this year as stimulus boosted demand for building materials, while exports also edged up as overseas economies reopened after lockdowns.
While China’s economy is showing a steady recovery, a hard battle still lies ahead as the situation remains severe both at home and abroad, state radio quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying on Monday.
China releases second-quarter GDP data on Thursday (0200 GMT), along with June factory output, retail sales and fixed-asset investment.
Analysts polled by Reuters expect industrial output to grow 4.7% in June from a year earlier, quickening from a 4.4% rise in May, while retail sales were seen rising 0.3%, versus a 2.8% fall in May. Retail sales have slumped for five months in a row.
Fixed-asset investment is forecast to fall 3.3% in the
first six months from a year earlier, easing from a 6.3%
slide in the first five months, according to the poll.
POLICY SUPPORT STILL NEEDED
Central bank governor Yi Gang has said China would keep financial system liquidity ample in the second half but would need to consider withdrawing support at some point, raising questions among investors over when it may start dialing down stimulus.
Still, analysts expect policymakers to maintain support for the economy for a while longer to ensure the recovery remains on track, despite a rise in overall debt levels.
Tang Jianwei, senior economist at Bank of Communications, expected the central bank to dole out 1-2 more targeted reserve requirement cuts and another 20 basis points of cuts in the interest rate on the medium-term lending facility in the second half.
Credit growth is also expected to remain strong. New bank lending hit a record 12.09 trillion yuan ($1.72 trillion) in the first half of the year.
Moreover, China has allowed local governments to issue 3.75 trillion yuan in special bonds to fund infrastructure projects, up from 2.15 trillion yuan last year, and issue 1 trillion yuan in special treasury bonds to spur activity.
Tang expected the economy to grow around 2.5% this year.
The International Monetary Fund has forecast an expansion of 1.0% for China for the full year, the only major economy expected to report growth in 2020.
($1 = 7.0092 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Polling by Shaloo Shrivastava in Bengaluru and Jing Wang in Shanghai; Reporting by Kevin Yao; Editing by Kim Coghill)
(Bloomberg) — The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency.
“All eyes are on the US,” Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview on Bloomberg’s Surveillance on Thursday.
The two biggest issues, she said, are “what is going to happen with inflation and interest rates” and “how is the US going to navigate this world of more intrusive government policies.”
The sustained strength of the US dollar is “concerning” for other currencies, particularly the lack of clarity on how long that may last.
“That’s what I hear from countries,” said the leader of the fund, which has about 190 members. “How long will the Fed be stuck with higher interest rates?”
Georgieva was speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers have been debating the impacts of Washington and Beijing’s policies and their geopolitical rivalry.
Read More: A Resilient Global Economy Masks Growing Debt and Inequality
Georgieva said the IMF is optimistic that the conditions will be right for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year.
“The Fed is not yet prepared, and rightly so, to cut,” she said. “How fast? I don’t think we should gear up for a rapid decline in interest rates.”
The IMF chief also repeated her concerns about China devoting too much capital and labor toward export-oriented manufacturing, causing other countries, including the US, to retaliate with protectionist policies.
China Overcapacity
“If China builds overcapacity and pushes exports that create reciprocity of action, then we are in a world of more fragmentation not less, and that ultimately is not good for China,” Georgieva said.
“What I want to see China doing is get serious about reforms, get serious about demand and consumption,” she added.
A number of countries have recently criticized China for what they see as excessive state subsidies for manufacturers, particularly in clean energy sectors, that might flood global markets with cheap goods and threaten competing firms.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hammered at the theme during a recent trip to China, repeatedly calling on Beijing to shift its economic policy toward stimulating domestic demand.
Chinese officials have acknowledged the risk of overcapacity in some areas, but have largely portrayed the criticism as overblown and hypocritical, coming from countries that are also ramping up clean energy subsidies.
(Updates with additional Georgieva comments from eighth paragraph.)
©2024 Bloomberg L.P.
The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency.
Author of the article:
Published Apr 18, 2024 • 2 minute read
(Bloomberg) — The head of the International Monetary Fund warned the US that the global economy is closely watching interest rates and industrial policies given the potential spillovers from the world’s biggest economy and reserve currency.
“All eyes are on the US,” Kristalina Georgieva said in an interview on Bloomberg’s Surveillance on Thursday.
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The two biggest issues, she said, are “what is going to happen with inflation and interest rates” and “how is the US going to navigate this world of more intrusive government policies.”
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Article content
The sustained strength of the US dollar is “concerning” for other currencies, particularly the lack of clarity on how long that may last.
“That’s what I hear from countries,” said the leader of the fund, which has about 190 members. “How long will the Fed be stuck with higher interest rates?”
Georgieva was speaking on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank’s spring meetings in Washington, where policymakers have been debating the impacts of Washington and Beijing’s policies and their geopolitical rivalry.
Read More: A Resilient Global Economy Masks Growing Debt and Inequality
Georgieva said the IMF is optimistic that the conditions will be right for the Federal Reserve to start cutting rates this year.
“The Fed is not yet prepared, and rightly so, to cut,” she said. “How fast? I don’t think we should gear up for a rapid decline in interest rates.”
The IMF chief also repeated her concerns about China devoting too much capital and labor toward export-oriented manufacturing, causing other countries, including the US, to retaliate with protectionist policies.
China Overcapacity
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Article content
“If China builds overcapacity and pushes exports that create reciprocity of action, then we are in a world of more fragmentation not less, and that ultimately is not good for China,” Georgieva said.
“What I want to see China doing is get serious about reforms, get serious about demand and consumption,” she added.
A number of countries have recently criticized China for what they see as excessive state subsidies for manufacturers, particularly in clean energy sectors, that might flood global markets with cheap goods and threaten competing firms.
US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen hammered at the theme during a recent trip to China, repeatedly calling on Beijing to shift its economic policy toward stimulating domestic demand.
Chinese officials have acknowledged the risk of overcapacity in some areas, but have largely portrayed the criticism as overblown and hypocritical, coming from countries that are also ramping up clean energy subsidies.
(Updates with additional Georgieva comments from eighth paragraph.)
Article content
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