China’s economy slows sharply, fanning global recession fears - Al Jazeera English | Canada News Media
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China’s economy slows sharply, fanning global recession fears – Al Jazeera English

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Second quarter expansion of 0.4 percent is the weakest performance since the initial coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan.

China’s economy grew at the slowest pace since the start of the COVID-19 pandemic in the second quarter, highlighting the punishing economic toll of Beijing’s stringent “dynamic zero COVID” strategy.

The world’s second-largest economy expanded just 0.4 percent year on year between April and June, official data showed on Friday, as lockdowns across the country stifled industrial production and consumer spending.

The meagre expansion was the worst performance since the first quarter of 2020, when China’s economy shrank 6.9 percent after authorities imposed the first COVID-related lockdowns in the city of Wuhan.

The result, which was well below market expectations, comes amid rising fears that the world could slip into recession as the war in Ukraine, supply chain disruptions, and rising interest rates cloud the outlook for growth.

“The data was weaker than expected, with most analysts expecting around 1 percent,” Carlos Casanova, senior economist for Asia at UBP in Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera.

“We were below consensus, as we expected the decline in China’s housing sector to drag on aggregate demand, reducing the likelihood of a sharper rebound in consumption in June.”

Casanova said he expected growth in 2022 to remain below 4 percent.

Despite the weak overall performance, industrial output and retail sales both rebounded strongly from previous lulls.

Industrial output grew 3.9 percent in June compared with a year earlier, up from 0.7 percent in May, according to data released on Friday.

Retail sales rose 3.1 percent, beating economists’ forecasts and registering the quickest growth in four months.

Fixed-asset investment, which includes investments in property, land, machinery and equipment, grew 6.1 percent in the first half of the year, compared with a 6.2 percent jump in January-May.

Major cities, including the commercial capital Shanghai, were put into lockdown in March and April, as part of a “zero COVID” policy that seeks to eliminate the virus at almost any cost.

While officials have since lifted many of the harshest curbs, new restrictions affecting millions of people have been introduced in recent weeks in Xian, Lanzhou, Haikou, Macau, and Anhui province.

Despite the mounting economic and social toll, Chinese President Xi Jinping has promised to maintain the country’s zero-tolerance approach, stressing the need to “put people and life at the forefront”.

China has set an economic growth target of about 5.5 percent for 2022, which economists widely believe Beijing will struggle to reach.

“Given the second quarter figure, it is very likely the Chinese government needs to lower its annual target, because it needs more than 8 percent growth for the second half to achieve the 5.5 percent target,” Alicia García-Herrero, chief Asia Pacific economist at Natixis in Hong Kong, told Al Jazeera.

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Energy stocks help lift S&P/TSX composite, U.S. stock markets also up

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was higher in late-morning trading, helped by strength in energy stocks, while U.S. stock markets also moved up.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 34.91 points at 23,736.98.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 178.05 points at 41,800.13. The S&P 500 index was up 28.38 points at 5,661.47, while the Nasdaq composite was up 133.17 points at 17,725.30.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.56 cents US compared with 73.57 cents US on Monday.

The November crude oil contract was up 68 cents at US$69.70 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up three cents at US$2.40 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was down US$7.80 at US$2,601.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.28 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

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Canada’s inflation rate hits 2% target, reaches lowest level in more than three years

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OTTAWA – Canada’s inflation rate fell to two per cent last month, finally hitting the Bank of Canada’s target after a tumultuous battle with skyrocketing price growth.

The annual inflation rate fell from 2.5 per cent in July to reach the lowest level since February 2021.

Statistics Canada’s consumer price index report on Tuesday attributed the slowdown in part to lower gasoline prices.

Clothing and footwear prices also decreased on a month-over-month basis, marking the first decline in the month of August since 1971 as retailers offered larger discounts to entice shoppers amid slowing demand.

The Bank of Canada’s preferred core measures of inflation, which strip out volatility in prices, also edged down in August.

The marked slowdown in price growth last month was steeper than the 2.1 per cent annual increase forecasters were expecting ahead of Tuesday’s release and will likely spark speculation of a larger interest rate cut next month from the Bank of Canada.

“Inflation remains unthreatening and the Bank of Canada should now focus on trying to stimulate the economy and halting the upward climb in the unemployment rate,” wrote CIBC senior economist Andrew Grantham.

Benjamin Reitzes, managing director of Canadian rates and macro strategist at BMO, said Tuesday’s figures “tilt the scales” slightly in favour of more aggressive cuts, though he noted the Bank of Canada will have one more inflation reading before its October rate announcement.

“If we get another big downside surprise, calls for a 50 basis-point cut will only grow louder,” wrote Reitzes in a client note.

The central bank began rapidly hiking interest rates in March 2022 in response to runaway inflation, which peaked at a whopping 8.1 per cent that summer.

The central bank increased its key lending rate to five per cent and held it at that level until June 2024, when it delivered its first rate cut in four years.

A combination of recovered global supply chains and high interest rates have helped cool price growth in Canada and around the world.

Bank of Canada governor Tiff Macklem recently signalled that the central bank is ready to increase the size of its interest rate cuts, if inflation or the economy slow by more than expected.

Its key lending rate currently stands at 4.25 per cent.

CIBC is forecasting the central bank will cut its key rate by two percentage points between now and the middle of next year.

The U.S. Federal Reserve is also expected on Wednesday to deliver its first interest rate cut in four years.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Federal money and sales taxes help pump up New Brunswick budget surplus

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FREDERICTON – New Brunswick‘s finance minister says the province recorded a surplus of $500.8 million for the fiscal year that ended in March.

Ernie Steeves says the amount — more than 10 times higher than the province’s original $40.3-million budget projection for the 2023-24 fiscal year — was largely the result of a strong economy and population growth.

The report of a big surplus comes as the province prepares for an election campaign, which will officially start on Thursday and end with a vote on Oct. 21.

Steeves says growth of the surplus was fed by revenue from the Harmonized Sales Tax and federal money, especially for health-care funding.

Progressive Conservative Premier Blaine Higgs has promised to reduce the HST by two percentage points to 13 per cent if the party is elected to govern next month.

Meanwhile, the province’s net debt, according to the audited consolidated financial statements, has dropped from $12.3 billion in 2022-23 to $11.8 billion in the most recent fiscal year.

Liberal critic René Legacy says having a stronger balance sheet does not eliminate issues in health care, housing and education.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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