China is on course for its slowest economic expansion in 40 years, say economists, as a new report claims its share of global trade growth will be halved over the next five years.
Factory output was better than expected in August, with 4.6% year-on-year growth, but analysts say this was due to August 2021 being a low base for comparison, as it was during last year’s Delta infection wave.
Julian Evans-Pritchard, senior China economist at Capital Economics, said: “China’s economy held up slightly better than anticipated last month, but momentum still weakened relative to July, amid renewed virus disruptions and factory closures due to power shortages. September is shaping up to be even worse.
“And, while the current virus wave may have peaked, activity is set to remain weak over the coming months amid a deepening property downturn, softening exports and recurring Covid-19 disruptions.”
China’s economy is forecast to expand 3.5% this year, the second slowest rate in 40 years, according to a Bloomberg survey, and the weakening of the currency poses challenges, too; this month it fell to its lowest level against the US dollar since July 2020.
A survey of manufacturers in the Greater Bay Area by Standard Chartered revealed SMEs there were particularly concerned over the increased exchange rate volatility, given half of the respondents are using the yuan for settling international trade.
Meanwhile, DHL’s new Trade Growth Atlas report predicts China’s share of global trade growth will fall 50% between 2021 and 2026, to 13%, as trade spreads across a wider variety of countries.
Between 2016 and 2021, China ranked first, with the fastest growth in both exports and imports. However, between 2021 and 2026, Asean countries are forecast to overtake it, followed by South and Central Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa.
The report says: “New poles of trade growth are emerging in South-east and South Asia and trade growth is forecast to accelerate dramatically in Sub-Saharan Africa. After decades of shifts to the east, the centre of gravity of world trade is poised for a turn south.”
TORONTO – Strength in the base metal and technology sectors helped Canada’s main stock index gain almost 100 points on Friday, while U.S. stock markets also climbed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index closed up 93.51 points at 23,568.65.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 297.01 points at 41,393.78. The S&P 500 index was up 30.26 points at 5,626.02, while the Nasdaq composite was up 114.30 points at 17,683.98.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.61 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.
The October crude oil contract was down 32 cents at US$68.65 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down five cents at US$2.31 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$30.10 at US$2,610.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents US$4.24 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.
The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.
The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.
The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.
In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.
Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 150 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in the base metal and energy sectors, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 172.18 points at 23,383.35.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 34.99 points at 40,826.72. The S&P 500 index was up 10.56 points at 5,564.69, while the Nasdaq composite was up 74.84 points at 17,470.37.
The Canadian dollar traded for 73.55 cents US compared with 73.59 cents US on Wednesday.
The October crude oil contract was up $2.00 at US$69.31 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was up five cents at US$2.32 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$40.00 at US$2,582.40 an ounce and the December copper contract was up six cents at US$4.20 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.
