SHANGHAI (Reuters) -China recorded its first-ever quarterly deficit in foreign direct investment (FDI), according to balance of payments data, underscoring capital outflow pressure and Beijing’s challenge in wooing overseas companies in the wake of a “de-risking” move by Western governments.
Direct investment liabilities – a broad measure of FDI that includes foreign companies’ retained earnings in China – were a deficit of $11.8 billion during the July-September period, according to preliminary balance of payments data.
That’s the first quarterly shortfall since China’s foreign exchange regulator began compiling the data in 1998, which could be linked to the impact of “de-risking” by Western countries from China, as well as China’s interest rate disadvantage.
“Some of the weakness in China’s inward FDI may be due to multinational companies repatriating earnings,” Goldman Sachs wrote.
“With interest rates in China ‘lower for longer’ while interest rates outside of China ‘higher for longer’, capital outflow pressures are likely to persist.”
Julian Evans-Pritchard, head of China economics at Capital Economics, said the unusually-large interest rate gap “has led firms to remit their retained earnings out of the country”.
Although he sees little evidence that foreign companies are, on aggregate, reducing their presence in China, “we do think that, over the medium-term at least, increasing geopolitical tensions will hamper China’s ability to attract FDI and instead favour emerging markets that are more friendly to the West.”
Driven by the FDI outflows, China’s basic balance – which encompasses current account and direct investment balances and are more stable than volatile portfolio investments – recorded a deficit of $3.2 billion, the second quarterly shortfall on record.
“Given these unfolding dynamics, which are poised to exert pressure on the RMB, we anticipate a sustained strategic response from China’s authorities,” Tommy Xie, head of Greater China Research at OCBC wrote.
Onshore yuan trading against the dollar also hit record-low volume in October, official data showed, highlighting authorities’ stepped-up efforts to curb yuan selling.
Xie expects China’s central bank to continue counter-cyclical interventions – including a strong bias in daily yuan fixings and managing yuan liquidity in the offshore market- to support the currency in the face of these headwinds.
Latest data shows that onshore volume of yuan trading against the dollar slumped to a record low of 1.85 trillion yuan ($254.05 billion) in October, a 73% drop from the August level.
The People’s Bank of China has urged major banks to limit trading and dissuade clients to exchange the yuan for the dollar, sources have told Reuters.
In September, foreign exchange outflows from China rose sharply to $75 billion, the biggest monthly figure since 2016, Goldman Sachs data showed.
($1 = 7.2819 Chinese yuan renminbi)
(Reporting by Shanghai newsroom;Editing by Shri Navaratnam and Emelia Sithole-Matarise)
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 100 points in late-morning trading, helped by strength in base metal and utility stocks, while U.S. stock markets were mixed.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 103.40 points at 24,542.48.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 192.31 points at 42,932.73. The S&P 500 index was up 7.14 points at 5,822.40, while the Nasdaq composite was down 9.03 points at 18,306.56.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.44 cents US on Tuesday.
The November crude oil contract was down 71 cents at US$69.87 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down eight cents at US$2.42 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$7.20 at US$2,686.10 an ounce and the December copper contract was up a penny at US$4.35 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 16, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 200 points in late-morning trading, while U.S. stock markets were also headed higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 205.86 points at 24,508.12.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 336.62 points at 42,790.74. The S&P 500 index was up 34.19 points at 5,814.24, while the Nasdaq composite was up 60.27 points at 18.342.32.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.61 cents US compared with 72.71 cents US on Thursday.
The November crude oil contract was down 15 cents at US$75.70 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was down two cents at US$2.65 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was down US$29.60 at US$2,668.90 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.47 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 11, 2024.
TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was little changed in late-morning trading as the financial sector fell, but energy and base metal stocks moved higher.
The S&P/TSX composite index was up 0.05 of a point at 24,224.95.
In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 94.31 points at 42,417.69. The S&P 500 index was down 10.91 points at 5,781.13, while the Nasdaq composite was down 29.59 points at 18,262.03.
The Canadian dollar traded for 72.71 cents US compared with 73.05 cents US on Wednesday.
The November crude oil contract was up US$1.69 at US$74.93 per barrel and the November natural gas contract was up a penny at US$2.67 per mmBTU.
The December gold contract was up US$14.70 at US$2,640.70 an ounce and the December copper contract was up two cents at US$4.42 a pound.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 10, 2024.
