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China's Property Crisis Likely Dragged Economy Down in November – BNN

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(Bloomberg) — Economic activity in China likely slowed in November due to the worsening downturn in the property sector and still subdued consumption. 

Growth in fixed-asset investment probably weakened last month, dragged down by sluggish property investment, according to the median estimate in a survey of economists ahead of data due to be released Wednesday morning. 

The economy’s slowdown has prompted Beijing to shift policy direction this month, with the central bank easing monetary policy and the Communist Party ordering more fiscal spending in 2022. It’s unclear though whether that support will be enough to reverse the effects of the crackdown on real-estate, which triggered defaults at China Evergrande Group and other developers and led to a plunge in sales. 

“The worst of the policy tightening is behind us, but I am not sure we can say the worst of the financial or economic fallout is behind us,” Logan Wright, director of China markets research at Rhodium Group, said in an interview on Bloomberg TV. There’ll be more emphasis on easing of monetary rather than fiscal policy, given the financial pressures local governments are under, he said.   

While Beijing is expected to make more credit available and signaled some easing of controls on the property market to support “stability,” officials last week maintained the basic stance that “houses are for living in, not speculation.” 

Data on the price of new homes will show whether the prices falls of September and October continued. The end of the year is usually a busy season for home sales and a continued slump in sales will worsen the already precarious financial position of many developers. 

Read more: Abandoned Projects Shatter Confidence in China’s Home Market

Infrastructure investment growth may have accelerated from the 1% expansion in the first 10 months of this year, as local government stepped up their sale of special bonds in the final months of the year after a slow start. That boost may continue into 2022 with Beijing allowing local governments to start selling next year’s bonds from Jan. 1 to speed up spending, according to 21st Century Business Herald. 

Still, the Central Economic Work Conference called for local governments to avoid taking on more hidden debt, suggesting it will be difficult for them to maintain high levels of fiscal spending over the longer term and that will make it harder to fully offset the slowdown in property investment. 

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say…

China’s economy likely continued to stabilize in November but remained stuck in low gear. Stronger exports provided support. Slowing activity in the real estate sector may have applied a drag to investment, although any slowdown may be mainly due to a higher base last year. 

Chang Shu and David Qu, economists

See here for full note.

Retail sales may have increased at a slower pace of 4.7% in November, compared with a 4.9% rise in October, according to a survey of economists. Although there was still strong sales around the “Singles Day” shopping festival in November, the consumption of services, restaurant and catering sales, and purchases at physical shops may have moderated due to outbreaks of Covid-19 during the month. Passenger car sales also likely fell. 

Industrial output is expected to pick up on strong export demand and an easing of curbs on production introduced after power shortages earlier in the year. 

The surveyed jobless rate likely stayed stable at 4.9% in November, a reading around the pre-pandemic levels, the survey showed. But other indicators showed the job situation continuing to worsen in November. The average number of hours worked per week is worth watching — this surged to a record high in October, indicating that companies likely made existing employees work longer hours instead of hiring new workers. 

Pressures on the job market will continue into 2022, with a record number of nearly 11 million college graduates entering the labor market. Regulatory crackdowns on industries ranging from education, property and the internet mean reduced job opportunities, while the government’s Covid-zero approach will continue to curb employment in services industries. If exports slow from their record-breaking gains this year, that will further add to labor-market pressures.

©2021 Bloomberg L.P.

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Economy

Statistics Canada reports wholesale sales higher in July

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says wholesale sales, excluding petroleum, petroleum products, and other hydrocarbons and excluding oilseed and grain, rose 0.4 per cent to $82.7 billion in July.

The increase came as sales in the miscellaneous subsector gained three per cent to reach $10.5 billion in July, helped by strength in the agriculture supplies industry group, which rose 9.2 per cent.

The food, beverage and tobacco subsector added 1.7 per cent to total $15 billion in July.

The personal and household goods subsector fell 2.5 per cent to $12.1 billion.

In volume terms, overall wholesale sales rose 0.5 per cent in July.

Statistics Canada started including oilseed and grain as well as the petroleum and petroleum products subsector as part of wholesale trade last year, but is excluding the data from monthly analysis until there is enough historical data.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 13, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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B.C.’s debt and deficit forecast to rise as the provincial election nears

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VICTORIA – British Columbia is forecasting a record budget deficit and a rising debt of almost $129 billion less than two weeks before the start of a provincial election campaign where economic stability and future progress are expected to be major issues.

Finance Minister Katrine Conroy, who has announced her retirement and will not seek re-election in the Oct. 19 vote, said Tuesday her final budget update as minister predicts a deficit of $8.9 billion, up $1.1 billion from a forecast she made earlier this year.

Conroy said she acknowledges “challenges” facing B.C., including three consecutive deficit budgets, but expected improved economic growth where the province will start to “turn a corner.”

The $8.9 billion deficit forecast for 2024-2025 is followed by annual deficit projections of $6.7 billion and $6.1 billion in 2026-2027, Conroy said at a news conference outlining the government’s first quarterly financial update.

Conroy said lower corporate income tax and natural resource revenues and the increased cost of fighting wildfires have had some of the largest impacts on the budget.

“I want to acknowledge the economic uncertainties,” she said. “While global inflation is showing signs of easing and we’ve seen cuts to the Bank of Canada interest rates, we know that the challenges are not over.”

Conroy said wildfire response costs are expected to total $886 million this year, more than $650 million higher than originally forecast.

Corporate income tax revenue is forecast to be $638 million lower as a result of federal government updates and natural resource revenues are down $299 million due to lower prices for natural gas, lumber and electricity, she said.

Debt-servicing costs are also forecast to be $344 million higher due to the larger debt balance, the current interest rate and accelerated borrowing to ensure services and capital projects are maintained through the province’s election period, said Conroy.

B.C.’s economic growth is expected to strengthen over the next three years, but the timing of a return to a balanced budget will fall to another minister, said Conroy, who was addressing what likely would be her last news conference as Minister of Finance.

The election is expected to be called on Sept. 21, with the vote set for Oct. 19.

“While we are a strong province, people are facing challenges,” she said. “We have never shied away from taking those challenges head on, because we want to keep British Columbians secure and help them build good lives now and for the long term. With the investments we’re making and the actions we’re taking to support people and build a stronger economy, we’ve started to turn a corner.”

Premier David Eby said before the fiscal forecast was released Tuesday that the New Democrat government remains committed to providing services and supports for people in British Columbia and cuts are not on his agenda.

Eby said people have been hurt by high interest costs and the province is facing budget pressures connected to low resource prices, high wildfire costs and struggling global economies.

The premier said that now is not the time to reduce supports and services for people.

Last month’s year-end report for the 2023-2024 budget saw the province post a budget deficit of $5.035 billion, down from the previous forecast of $5.9 billion.

Eby said he expects government financial priorities to become a major issue during the upcoming election, with the NDP pledging to continue to fund services and the B.C. Conservatives looking to make cuts.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story. A previous version said the debt would be going up to more than $129 billion. In fact, it will be almost $129 billion.

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Mark Carney mum on carbon-tax advice, future in politics at Liberal retreat

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NANAIMO, B.C. – Former Bank of Canada governor Mark Carney says he’ll be advising the Liberal party to flip some the challenges posed by an increasingly divided and dangerous world into an economic opportunity for Canada.

But he won’t say what his specific advice will be on economic issues that are politically divisive in Canada, like the carbon tax.

He presented his vision for the Liberals’ economic policy at the party’s caucus retreat in Nanaimo, B.C. today, after he agreed to help the party prepare for the next election as chair of a Liberal task force on economic growth.

Carney has been touted as a possible leadership contender to replace Justin Trudeau, who has said he has tried to coax Carney into politics for years.

Carney says if the prime minister asks him to do something he will do it to the best of his ability, but won’t elaborate on whether the new adviser role could lead to him adding his name to a ballot in the next election.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland says she has been taking advice from Carney for years, and that his new position won’t infringe on her role.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 10, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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