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China's property distress sours steel sector in warning sign for economy – CNBC

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Profits at China’s industrial firms grew at a faster pace in October, the statistics bureau said on Nov. 27, 2021, providing a buffer for a faltering economy battered by soaring raw material prices. Pictured here is a worker counting cast steel pipes to be shipped aboard at Lianyungang Port in Lianyungang, Jiangsu province of China.
Wang Chun | Visual China Group | Getty Images

Debt problems at a major Chinese property developer have now spilled over into a vital artery of the nation’s industrial engine – the steel sector – and started to ripple through to other critical parts of the world’s second-largest economy.

The spreading balance-sheet crisis at real estate firms is a warning for policymakers as a swing in the fortunes of the steel industry would have significant repercussions for China’s economy, with cement, glass, and household appliances all vulnerable to demand drops.

Already, steel prices are down from their record highs seen earlier this year due to easing demand from construction activities, which account for over half of the metal’s consumption, while steelmakers’ share prices have also been hurt.

Share prices of major Chinese listed firms dropped from high levels in recent months on easing demand and lower raw materials prices.

Steel’s acute sensitivity to the ebbs and flows in construction and manufacturing makes it a closely-tracked bellwether for China’s economy, which has started to slow down from the second quarter. read more Steel firms are also massive employers that support a vast supply chain.

Hitting steel operations, real estate developers have dialed back investment in projects to conserve cash in a sector squeezed by tighter borrowing regulations that have engulfed indebted companies, most notably China Evergrande Group

“We normally stockpile steel products in winter at relatively lower prices and sell them after the new year holidays when consumption resumes. But we are holding off this year,” said Qi Xiaoliang, a Beijing-based steel trader.

“There’s still uncertainty in the real estate market for 2022 and the situation is not expected to be fully reversed for another six to 12 months,” he added.

In the final quarter of 2021, the property market took a further hit as the unease in the sector shook already weak buyer sentiment, with unsold housing stock in China’s 100 biggest cities reaching a five-year high in November.

Demand for homes is expected to ease further in 2022, hitting downstream manufacturers of household products.

Cement production, another construction material, was down around 16% for September-November year-on-year, and was lower versus the same period between 2017 and 2019. Demand for earth excavators has also dropped off in recent months.

The broadening spillover impact of the property downturn was also seen elsewhere. In the appliances industry, for example, monthly refrigerator output has been falling since May through to November on an annual basis.

Reversal in fortunes

Steel producers were among the best performers of the entire Chinese economy over the first three quarters of 2021, with China’s 28 major listed mills pocketing over 106 billion yuan ($16.61 billion) in net profits, up 174% year-on-year and 129% higher than in pre-pandemic 2019.

Major Chinese listed steel mills’ profits jumped in the first nine months of 2021.

But the boom times in the steel sector are over. The paralysis that has struck China’s mammoth construction industry is triggering a rare contraction in building activity across the country.

New construction starts by floor area have contracted from a year earlier since July – their longest stretch of declines since 2015. 

Growth in China’s property investment and new construction starts measured by floor area fell in recent months amid developers’ default crisis and government’s controls.

The slowdown in the real estate sector has dented China’s monthly crude steel output by more than 20% since September.

The closely-tracked steel equity instruments and commodities futures have captured the reversal of fortunes.

After gaining roughly 90% through mid-September, the CSI steel equities index has plunged 27% since, while futures prices for construction materials rebar and wire rod have tumbled 24% and 31% respectively from their historical highs to erase almost all their gains this year.

As steel producers hit the brakes, the key inputs used in steelmaking have also taken a shellacking, with Dalian Commodity Exchange iron ore futures down more than 45% from their record in May.

Gross profits for steel rebar have started to trend down from the peak seen in late September.

China’s steel rebar output fell in recent months due to easing property market demand.

Uncertain outlook

Property-related sectors are the single biggest contributor to China’s economy, accounting for 28% of GDP in 2021, down from a recent peak of 35% in 2016.

The GDP share is broken down into a 7% direct contribution from property and a 21% indirect contribution from construction and through sectors along the supply chain such as machinery and equipment, according to Moody’s.

China’s house prices show rare weakness as construction sector debt woes bite

A government industry consultancy forecast China’s steel demand will slip 0.7% in 2022, following an expected 4.7% decline this year.

Looking ahead, any extended credit constraints “could reduce demand for metals used in construction as developers lose the ability to pay for raw materials at high prices,” analysts with Fitch Solutions wrote in a recent note to clients.

If the contraction in construction spending endures, it will then affect the producers of appliances and white goods that constitute a key part of China’s critical manufacturing base.

China seasonal output of steel, cement and key appliances

“Property construction has been the engine of China’s economy for over two decades now,” said Frederic Neumann, Co-Head of Asian Economics Research at HSBC.

“With building activity likely to remain depressed for quite some time, growth will inevitably shift down a gear or two.”

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A timeline of events in the bread price-fixing scandal

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Almost seven years since news broke of an alleged conspiracy to fix the price of packaged bread across Canada, the saga isn’t over: the Competition Bureau continues to investigate the companies that may have been involved, and two class-action lawsuits continue to work their way through the courts.

Here’s a timeline of key events in the bread price-fixing case.

Oct. 31, 2017: The Competition Bureau says it’s investigating allegations of bread price-fixing and that it was granted search warrants in the case. Several grocers confirm they are co-operating in the probe.

Dec. 19, 2017: Loblaw and George Weston say they participated in an “industry-wide price-fixing arrangement” to raise the price of packaged bread. The companies say they have been co-operating in the Competition Bureau’s investigation since March 2015, when they self-reported to the bureau upon discovering anti-competitive behaviour, and are receiving immunity from prosecution. They announce they are offering $25 gift cards to customers amid the ongoing investigation into alleged bread price-fixing.

Jan. 31, 2018: In court documents, the Competition Bureau says at least $1.50 was added to the price of a loaf of bread between about 2001 and 2016.

Dec. 20, 2019: A class-action lawsuit in a Quebec court against multiple grocers and food companies is certified against a number of companies allegedly involved in bread price-fixing, including Loblaw, George Weston, Metro, Sobeys, Walmart Canada, Canada Bread and Giant Tiger (which have all denied involvement, except for Loblaw and George Weston, which later settled with the plaintiffs).

Dec. 31, 2021: A class-action lawsuit in an Ontario court covering all Canadian residents except those in Quebec who bought packaged bread from a company named in the suit is certified against roughly the same group of companies.

June 21, 2023: Bakery giant Canada Bread Co. is fined $50 million after pleading guilty to four counts of price-fixing under the Competition Act as part of the Competition Bureau’s ongoing investigation.

Oct. 25 2023: Canada Bread files a statement of defence in the Ontario class action denying participating in the alleged conspiracy and saying any anti-competitive behaviour it participated in was at the direction and to the benefit of its then-majority owner Maple Leaf Foods, which is not a defendant in the case (neither is its current owner Grupo Bimbo). Maple Leaf calls Canada Bread’s accusations “baseless.”

Dec. 20, 2023: Metro files new documents in the Ontario class action accusing Loblaw and its parent company George Weston of conspiring to implicate it in the alleged scheme, denying involvement. Sobeys has made a similar claim. The two companies deny the allegations.

July 25, 2024: Loblaw and George Weston say they agreed to pay a combined $500 million to settle both the Ontario and Quebec class-action lawsuits. Loblaw’s share of the settlement includes a $96-million credit for the gift cards it gave out years earlier.

Sept. 12, 2024: Canada Bread files new documents in Ontario court as part of the class action, claiming Maple Leaf used it as a “shield” to avoid liability in the alleged scheme. Maple Leaf was a majority shareholder of Canada Bread until 2014, and the company claims it’s liable for any price-fixing activity. Maple Leaf refutes the claims.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:L, TSX:MFI, TSX:MRU, TSX:EMP.A, TSX:WN)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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S&P/TSX composite up more than 250 points, U.S. stock markets also higher

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TORONTO – Canada’s main stock index was up more than 250 points in late-morning trading, led by strength in the base metal and technology sectors, while U.S. stock markets also charged higher.

The S&P/TSX composite index was up 254.62 points at 23,847.22.

In New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was up 432.77 points at 41,935.87. The S&P 500 index was up 96.38 points at 5,714.64, while the Nasdaq composite was up 486.12 points at 18,059.42.

The Canadian dollar traded for 73.68 cents US compared with 73.58 cents US on Thursday.

The November crude oil contract was up 89 cents at US$70.77 per barrel and the October natural gas contract was down a penny at US2.27 per mmBTU.

The December gold contract was up US$9.40 at US$2,608.00 an ounce and the December copper contract was up four cents at US$4.33 a pound.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:GSPTSE, TSX:CADUSD)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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