China’s real estate slump predicted to last for years, threatening to spill into the wider region | Canada News Media
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China’s real estate slump predicted to last for years, threatening to spill into the wider region

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Weakness in China’s real estate sector could be a drag on the economy for years to come and could even impact countries in the wider region, Wall Street banks have warned.

“We see persistent weaknesses in the property sector, mainly related to lower-tier cities and private developer financing, and believe there appears no quick fix for them,” Goldman Sachs economists led by China economist Lisheng Wang said in a weekend note.

Goldman’s economists said the property market is expected to see an “L-shaped recovery” — defined as steep declines followed by a slow recovery rate.

“We only assume an ‘L-shaped’ recovery in the property sector in coming years,” they said.

“Based on our estimates, the property weakness will likely be a multi-year growth drag for China, but it could be less painful in 2023 than in 2022.”

Data from May showed China’s property sector is still struggling to turn around, despite signs of recovery earlier this year.

Market watchers predict China will likely support the real estate sector through fiscal stimulus policies, expected to be released as the economy struggles to regain momentum after reopening from Covid-19.

Hong Kong-listed Chinese property stocks jumped Tuesday after the People’s Bank of China cut its seven-day reverse repurchase rate by 10 basis points from 2% to 1.9% — it was the first such cut since August.

On Tuesday, property developer Logan Group jumped as much as 4.5% and Country Garden rose 4% on hopes of further stimulus and policy easing ahead.

Goldman Sachs economists also noted there are expectations for China’s government to introduce more housing stimulus packages to support the sector.

“We believe the policy priority is to manage the multi-year slowdown rather than to engineer an upcycle,” the analysts said, adding that Goldman does not expect “a repeat of the 2015-18 cash-backed shantytown renovation program.”

They were referring to China’s urban redevelopment project which aimed to renovate millions of dilapidated homes over a period of time to drive up urbanization and improve livelihood.

According to Reuters, the government invested some $144 billion for the first seven months of 2018 to compensate residents of homes that were demolished in a bid to boost home sales and prices in smaller cities struggling with unsold homes.

Divergence between public and private

Another concern for the property sector is a wide divergence between government-owned property businesses and private companies in the industry, JPMorgan’s Asia Chief Market Strategist Tai Hui said.

If the challenges in the property sector deepen and bring risk aversion in the financial system and affect consumer confidence, this will cause a deeper slowdown in China.
Morgan Stanley

“I think that recovery is going to be slow, but I think there also a huge divergence between the state-owned developers which have done better in this current rebound versus the more private sector developers, who are still struggling,” Hui told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Tuesday.

The property sector was also highlighted in a government work report released earlier this year, which called for support for people buying their first homes and to “help resolve the housing problems of new urban residents and young people.”

Hui said the government’s push to cap property prices at a certain level could be missing a big chunk of potential buyers.

“While the authorities have been relaxing some of their policies in the past 6 to 9 months, I think the intention to maintain price affordability, i.e., not let prices go up too much … that’s really taking a big part of the potential buyer base out of the equation,” he said.

Further slowdown ahead

Morgan Stanley, in its mid-year outlook report, warned that further weakness in the property sector will likely bring more headwinds for China’s growth.

“If the challenges in the property sector deepen and bring risk aversion in the financial system and affect consumer confidence, this will cause a deeper slowdown in China,” Morgan Stanley’s chief economist Chetan Ahya wrote.

Should monetary easing measures fail to support the ailing property sector, it will also lead to concerns of a spillover effect in the rest of the Asia-Pacific region, the firm’s economists said.

A “downside risk would be if China’s property sector does not stabilize even with the easing we expect,” they said. “In that scenario, confidence and financial conditions will tighten in China, which will have direct implications for China’s growth but also will negatively spill over to the region.”

– CNBC’s Evelyn Cheng contributed to this report.

 

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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