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China’s Rebound Helps to Stabilize a Shattered World Economy – Yahoo Canada Finance

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(Bloomberg) — China’s economic recovery from the depths plunged during the Covid-19 pandemic is providing support for a world economy suffering its deepest recession since the Great Depression.

Third quarter data due at 10 a.m. in Beijing Monday is expected to show gross domestic product climbed 5.5% from the same period a year earlier, according to the median of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. Retail sales, investment and industrial production are all forecast to pick up in September, suggesting the recovery is broadening.

If the numbers meet expectations, that’ll mean the world’s second-largest economy — and the first to suffer from the virus shock — will have regained all the ground it lost in the first half.

Underpinning the recovery has been an aggressive containment of the deadly coronavirus that has allowed factories to quickly reopen and capitalise on a global rush for medical equipment and work-from-home technology — a dynamic that helped exporters win record market share in the seven months to July.

Shoppers have been more cautious, but robust spending through the recent Golden Week holidays suggest they too are starting to open their wallets again.

The recovery has come with relatively restrained government borrowing and central bank easing compared to China’s peers. Instead, the government has focused on targeted support for business, a contrast to how it responded to the global financial crisis.

“China is supporting the world in a different way from what it did after 2008,” said Shen Jianguang, chief economist of e-commerce giant, JD.com. “A slowing economy means it could not afford another stimulus in 2020. Instead, it did its job by serving as the ‘supplier of last resort.’”

What Bloomberg’s Economists Say…

“The path of industrial production is the most relevant for China’s production-based GDP growth data. Based on production growth in July and August and our projection for September, we estimate GDP growth at 5.3% year on year for 3Q, though recent signs point to some upside to the projection.”

— Chang Shu, chief Asia economist. Bloomberg Terminal clients can read her full preview by clicking HERE

Analysis of International Monetary Fund data shows the proportion of worldwide growth coming from China is expected to increase from 26.8% in 2021 to 27.7% in 2025, according to Bloomberg calculations.

The IMF says Chinese growth is virtually the only reason it expects global output to be 0.6% higher by the end of 2021 compared to the end of 2019.

But the recovery isn’t without its holes. The economy is still forecast to be only 0.7% larger in the nine months through September than it was in the same period in 2019. At the start of the year the government expected full-year growth of around 6%.

And consumers have been slow to spend as they once did. Even with the virus under control, shoppers have spent about 9% less in the first eight months of the year compared to the same period last year.

It’s also unclear how durable the recovery will prove to be given domestic pressures from unemployment and rising corporate and household debt. China Evergrande Group, the world’s most indebted developer, has rattled investors amid fears for its financial health.

Much will also depend on how relations with the U.S. evolve after November’s presidential election. Any worsening of trade frictions could throw a spanner in the export revival. At the same time, the resurgent virus in Europe and the U.S. will complicate the global rebound and could impair China’s own recovery.

Getting the economy quickly back on its feet is crucial to China’s global ambitions. They were hammered home last week by President Xi Jinping during a tour of tech-hub Shenzhen, where he doubled down on calls to take the global lead in technology and other strategic industries.

Urging an “unswerving” commitment to technological innovation in a period of “changes unseen in a century,” Xi again promoted a need to become more self reliant, a policy that is expected to be a central part of a new 5-year economic plan that will be discussed at a Communist Party gathering expected later this month.

Read more: Bloomberg Trade Tracker Surges Back to Normal

That focus on driving growth in new economy sectors like consumption, technology and services means investment there is outstripping that in old sectors, making this cycle different from the credit and construction boom post 2008, noted Cui Li, head of macro research at CCB International Holdings Ltd. in Hong Kong.

“An industrial cycle led by the economic upgrade and the absence of a large credit expansion will make this growth recovery more sustainable,” she said. “The Chinese recovery will sustain.”

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Canada’s unemployment rate holds steady at 6.5% in October, economy adds 15,000 jobs

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OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.

Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.

Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.

Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.

Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.

Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.

Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.

According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.

That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.

People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.

That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.

Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.

That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Health-care spending expected to outpace economy and reach $372 billion in 2024: CIHI

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The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.

The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.

CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.

This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.

While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.

Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.

The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump’s victory sparks concerns over ripple effect on Canadian economy

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As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.

Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.

A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.

More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.

Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.

“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.

“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”

American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.

It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.

“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.

“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”

A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.

Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.

“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.

Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.

With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”

“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.

“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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