China’s economic recovery is vulnerable to losing momentum as key trading partners from Japan to the U.S. struggle with resurgences of the deadly coronavirus and resort to fresh measures to control its spread.
While the world’s second-largest economy returned to growth in the second quarter amid relative success in containing the virus, much of that momentum relied on state-driven industry as consumers remain cautious.
“The Covid-19 situation continues to deteriorate in parts of the world,” said Ding Shuang, chief economist for Greater China and North Asia at Standard Chartered Plc. “This may weaken demand for China’s goods and services and is a main risk facing China’s economy.”
Officials nodded at the global risks after a slew of data Thursday showed a steady but uneven recovery.
Gross domestic product expanded 3.2% in the three months to June from a year ago, reversing a 6.8% decline in the first quarter and beating the median forecast of 2.4%. Output in the first half was still down 1.6% on the same period in 2019.
In an indication of the mixed recovery, industrial output rose 4.8% in June from a year earlier — matching estimates — yet retail sales shrank 1.8%, much weaker than a projected 0.5% increase. At the same time fixed-asset investment shrank 3.1% in the first half of the year, versus a forecast drop of 3.3%.
Liu Aihua, spokeswoman for the National Bureau of Statistics in Beijing, told reporters that the continued spread of the virus globally will remain a key constraint on any domestic recovery.
“It is difficult to restart the world economy and trade,” she said, adding that “the recovery of domestic demand is restricted to a certain extent currently.”
To be sure, exports and imports both rose in June, signaling a firmer footing at home and abroad and which some analysts say points to an improving picture still to come.
“I think the economic recovery in China will continue in the next few quarters, even when export growth is facing some headwinds.” said Bo Zhuang, chief China economist at research firm TS Lombard.
Still, data on global growth continues to disappoint. The U.K. economy’s 1.8% expansion in May was much weaker than expected. While a ZEW gauge of current conditions in Germany improved in July, confidence for the next six months slipped. The Bank of Japan warned that the economy remains in an “extremely severe situation.”
Hopes for containing the virus are being strained as infections continue to spread around the world, including places like Australia and Hong Kong where it had been brought under control, pushing global cases above the 13.5 million mark.
Australia’s second most populous state — Victoria — recorded its biggest spike in coronavirus cases Thursday, a week after it was placed into partial lockdown as it’s gripped by a second wave of infections.
New Lockdowns
The virus continues to flare across the U.S., with Texas reporting a record Covid-19 deaths and almost 11,000 new cases, and California seeing near-record surges.
None of which bodes especially well for China, which needs export growth to return to a sustainable expansion.
Private and external demand are the two biggest sources of uncertainty for the second half of the year.
Private companies cut back on investment in the first six months while spending by state-owned firms saw a big jump in June, rising 2.1% in the first six months after falling 1.9% through May. Manufacturing investment was down almost 12%.
A drop in the surveyed jobless rate drew caution that the reading doesn’t capture the full labor market and that tens of millions may still be out of work due to the pandemic.
What Bloomberg’s Economists Say
China’s economy bounced back strongly in 2Q – but now the challenge will be to sustain the recovery. “Continued momentum in June production bodes well for growth in 2H. But weak consumer spending remains a serious, persistent drag.”
— Chang Shu and David Qu
See full note here
Simmering geopolitical tensions with the U.S. are another risk to both China’s exports and manufacturing investment, while the risk of a second wave of the virus cannot be ruled out.
“A bumpy and uneven reopening in other countries implies weaker external demand, which will likely become a drag on industrial activity growth in China,” said Helen Qiao, chief Greater China economist at Bank of America.
OTTAWA – Canada’s unemployment rate held steady at 6.5 per cent last month as hiring remained weak across the economy.
Statistics Canada’s labour force survey on Friday said employment rose by a modest 15,000 jobs in October.
Business, building and support services saw the largest gain in employment.
Meanwhile, finance, insurance, real estate, rental and leasing experienced the largest decline.
Many economists see weakness in the job market continuing in the short term, before the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts spark a rebound in economic growth next year.
Despite ongoing softness in the labour market, however, strong wage growth has raged on in Canada. Average hourly wages in October grew 4.9 per cent from a year ago, reaching $35.76.
Friday’s report also shed some light on the financial health of households.
According to the agency, 28.8 per cent of Canadians aged 15 or older were living in a household that had difficulty meeting financial needs – like food and housing – in the previous four weeks.
That was down from 33.1 per cent in October 2023 and 35.5 per cent in October 2022, but still above the 20.4 per cent figure recorded in October 2020.
People living in a rented home were more likely to report difficulty meeting financial needs, with nearly four in 10 reporting that was the case.
That compares with just under a quarter of those living in an owned home by a household member.
Immigrants were also more likely to report facing financial strain last month, with about four out of 10 immigrants who landed in the last year doing so.
That compares with about three in 10 more established immigrants and one in four of people born in Canada.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.
The Canadian Institute for Health Information says health-care spending in Canada is projected to reach a new high in 2024.
The annual report released Thursday says total health spending is expected to hit $372 billion, or $9,054 per Canadian.
CIHI’s national analysis predicts expenditures will rise by 5.7 per cent in 2024, compared to 4.5 per cent in 2023 and 1.7 per cent in 2022.
This year’s health spending is estimated to represent 12.4 per cent of Canada’s gross domestic product. Excluding two years of the pandemic, it would be the highest ratio in the country’s history.
While it’s not unusual for health expenditures to outpace economic growth, the report says this could be the case for the next several years due to Canada’s growing population and its aging demographic.
Canada’s per capita spending on health care in 2022 was among the highest in the world, but still less than countries such as the United States and Sweden.
The report notes that the Canadian dental and pharmacare plans could push health-care spending even further as more people who previously couldn’t afford these services start using them.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.
Canadian Press health coverage receives support through a partnership with the Canadian Medical Association. CP is solely responsible for this content.
As Canadians wake up to news that Donald Trump will return to the White House, the president-elect’s protectionist stance is casting a spotlight on what effect his second term will have on Canada-U.S. economic ties.
Some Canadian business leaders have expressed worry over Trump’s promise to introduce a universal 10 per cent tariff on all American imports.
A Canadian Chamber of Commerce report released last month suggested those tariffs would shrink the Canadian economy, resulting in around $30 billion per year in economic costs.
More than 77 per cent of Canadian exports go to the U.S.
Canada’s manufacturing sector faces the biggest risk should Trump push forward on imposing broad tariffs, said Canadian Manufacturers and Exporters president and CEO Dennis Darby. He said the sector is the “most trade-exposed” within Canada.
“It’s in the U.S.’s best interest, it’s in our best interest, but most importantly for consumers across North America, that we’re able to trade goods, materials, ingredients, as we have under the trade agreements,” Darby said in an interview.
“It’s a more complex or complicated outcome than it would have been with the Democrats, but we’ve had to deal with this before and we’re going to do our best to deal with it again.”
American economists have also warned Trump’s plan could cause inflation and possibly a recession, which could have ripple effects in Canada.
It’s consumers who will ultimately feel the burden of any inflationary effect caused by broad tariffs, said Darby.
“A tariff tends to raise costs, and it ultimately raises prices, so that’s something that we have to be prepared for,” he said.
“It could tilt production mandates. A tariff makes goods more expensive, but on the same token, it also will make inputs for the U.S. more expensive.”
A report last month by TD economist Marc Ercolao said research shows a full-scale implementation of Trump’s tariff plan could lead to a near-five per cent reduction in Canadian export volumes to the U.S. by early-2027, relative to current baseline forecasts.
Retaliation by Canada would also increase costs for domestic producers, and push import volumes lower in the process.
“Slowing import activity mitigates some of the negative net trade impact on total GDP enough to avoid a technical recession, but still produces a period of extended stagnation through 2025 and 2026,” Ercolao said.
Since the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement came into effect in 2020, trade between Canada and the U.S. has surged by 46 per cent, according to the Toronto Region Board of Trade.
With that deal is up for review in 2026, Canadian Chamber of Commerce president and CEO Candace Laing said the Canadian government “must collaborate effectively with the Trump administration to preserve and strengthen our bilateral economic partnership.”
“With an impressive $3.6 billion in daily trade, Canada and the United States are each other’s closest international partners. The secure and efficient flow of goods and people across our border … remains essential for the economies of both countries,” she said in a statement.
“By resisting tariffs and trade barriers that will only raise prices and hurt consumers in both countries, Canada and the United States can strengthen resilient cross-border supply chains that enhance our shared economic security.”
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.
