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China’s Reopening May Not Lead To A Major Jump In Oil Prices

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China has undergone three distinct phases in its reaction to COVID-19 since the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission reported the first small cluster of cases of ‘pneumonia’ in Wuhan city in Hubei Province on 31 December 2019. The first phase was the quick implementation of the ‘zero-COVID’ policy that allowed for the fast economic bounce back of China in just the second quarter of 2020. This was a time when elsewhere more than 3.9 billion people in more than 90 countries or territories having been asked or ordered to stay at home by their governments. The second phase was marked by repeated lockdowns in various areas of China, including several of its major cities, as outbreaks of COVID-19 and related strains of the virus prompted full lockdowns under the strict ‘zero-COVID’ policy. The third phase was prompted by nationwide protests against such continued all-encompassing lockdowns and comprised of the effective shelving of the policy that, in turn, has led to huge waves of infections and deaths. The next phase, which may well arrive earlier than many people expect, is likely to be the bounce back of China’s economy.

To put this economic bounce back into context: the massive disparity between China’s enormous economy-driven oil and gas needs and its minimal level of domestic oil and gas reserves meant that China almost alone created the 2000-2014 commodities ‘super-cycle’, characterised by consistently rising price trends for commodities used in a booming manufacturing and infrastructure environment. As late as 2017, China’s high rate of economic growth allowed it to overtake the US as the largest annual gross crude oil importer in the world, having become the world’s largest net importer of total petroleum and other liquid fuels in 2013. More specifically on the economic side of the equation, from 1992 to 1998, China’s annual economic growth rate was basically between 10 to 15 percent; from 1998 to 2004 between 8 to 10 percent; from 2004 to 2010 between 10 to 15 percent again; from 2010 to 2016 between 6 to 10 percent, and from 2016 to 2022 between 5 to 7 percent. For much of the period from 1992 to the middle 2010s, much of this activity was focused on energy-intensive economic drivers, particularly manufacturing and the corollary build out of infrastructure attached to the sector, such as factories, housing for workers, road, railways and so on. Even after some of China’s growth began to switch into the less energy-intensive service sectors, the country’s investment in energy-intensive infrastructure build-out remained very high.

It is extremely difficult to gauge the current level of infections and deaths from COVID-19 and its related strains, as China’s National Health Commission (NHC) stopped publishing daily COVID-19 case data on 25 December 2022, a practice that had been in effect since 21 January 2020. However, during a recent press conference, Kan Quancheng, a senior official in Henan – China’s third most populous province – revealed that nearly 90 percent of people there had now been infected with COVID-19 and its related strains, which equates to around 88.5 million people in just that province.

Cases have risen to these levels in large part due to the zero-COVID policy and its strict implementation, as only extremely limited immunity to the virus has been allowed to develop. At the time of effectively shelving the zero-Covid policy, China still did not have an effective vaccine against the disease or any variant thereof, despite offers from all major vaccine-producing countries to make such supplies available to it. China also did not have an effective post-infection anti-viral, again despite offers from several Western countries to make such anti-virals and post-infection treatments available to it. Adding to these negative factors, as highlighted by OilPrice.com recently, is that China suffers from an extreme shortage of intensive care unit capacity in hospitals.

Although this unrestrained surge of COVID infections has caused an even deeper impact on activity in the near-term – which Eugenia Victorino, head of Asia strategy for SEB in Singapore exclusively told OilPrice.com likely dampened to 2022 GDP growth of 2.8 percent – China’s annual Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC) signalled in the middle of December that boosting growth will be the priority in 2023. “Investments in research and development in high tech sectors will be accelerated, specifically in new energy, AI, biomanufacturing, and quantum computing,” she said. “Although the CEWC called for greater market access for foreign capital especially in modern services industry, the long-term policy direction of greater self-reliance in key sectors will be maintained and on fiscal policy, public spending will ‘maintain the necessary intensity’,” she added. “Therefore, there are upside risks to our 5.5 percent GDP growth forecast for 2023,” she concluded.

With COVID infections having peaked on the east coast, and although a difficult time lies ahead for central and rural China, activity will begin to accelerate by March at the very latest, thinks Rory Green, chief China economist for TS Lombard, in London. “We noted in December that China was looking to kick-start consumer activity and sentiment in 2023, a message emphasised in [Premier] Xi Jinping’s New Year speech,” Green exclusively told OilPrice.com “Beijing is trying to reset domestic and international economic and political relations by toning down ‘Common Prosperity’ and ‘Wolf Warrior’ rhetoric and, more important, delivering stronger growth,” he added. “We think that China is rapidly moving from COVID coma to reopening boom and that a GDP target of ‘above 5 percent’ will be established for 2023 and that Xi will look to report GDP comfortably above that floor,” he underlined.

This said, it may be that the previously near-automatic feed-through of increased China economic growth on oil prices is not as marked this time around as in previous years. “China’s central leadership is relying on reopening and the removal of negative policies – property, consumer internet, and geopolitics – rather than aggressive stimulus, to drive activity,” Green told OilPrice.com. “For the first time, a cyclical recovery in China will be led by household consumption, mainly services [as] there is clearly a great deal of pent-up demand and savings – about 4 percent of GDP – following three years of intermittent mobility restrictions,” he added.

For oil prices, he underlined, it is apposite to note that transportation accounts for just 54 percent of China’s oil consumption, compared to 72 percent in the US and 68 percent in the European Union. Last year, net oil and refined petroleum imports were 8 percent lower by volume than the pre-pandemic peak, with infrastructure and export-oriented manufacturing partly offsetting lower mobility and less property construction. “Demand drivers should switch this year, with travel rising and property less negative, while infrastructure and manufacturing slow,” said Green. “The certain outcome is an increase in oil demand – we estimate a 5-8 percent increase in net import volumes – but this is unlikely to cause oil prices to surge, especially as China is buying at a discount from Russia,” he concluded.

By Simon Watkins for Oilprice.com

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Transat AT reports $39.9M Q3 loss compared with $57.3M profit a year earlier

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MONTREAL – Travel company Transat AT Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter compared with a profit a year earlier as its revenue edged lower.

The parent company of Air Transat says it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31.

The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue in what was the company’s third quarter totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

Transat chief executive Annick Guérard says demand for leisure travel remains healthy, as evidenced by higher traffic, but consumers are increasingly price conscious given the current economic uncertainty.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Dollarama keeping an eye on competitors as Loblaw launches new ultra-discount chain

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Dollarama Inc.’s food aisles may have expanded far beyond sweet treats or piles of gum by the checkout counter in recent years, but its chief executive maintains his company is “not in the grocery business,” even if it’s keeping an eye on the sector.

“It’s just one small part of our store,” Neil Rossy told analysts on a Wednesday call, where he was questioned about the company’s food merchandise and rivals playing in the same space.

“We will keep an eye on all retailers — like all retailers keep an eye on us — to make sure that we’re competitive and we understand what’s out there.”

Over the last decade and as consumers have more recently sought deals, Dollarama’s food merchandise has expanded to include bread and pantry staples like cereal, rice and pasta sold at prices on par or below supermarkets.

However, the competition in the discount segment of the market Dollarama operates in intensified recently when the country’s biggest grocery chain began piloting a new ultra-discount store.

The No Name stores being tested by Loblaw Cos. Ltd. in Windsor, St. Catharines and Brockville, Ont., are billed as 20 per cent cheaper than discount retail competitors including No Frills. The grocery giant is able to offer such cost savings by relying on a smaller store footprint, fewer chilled products and a hearty range of No Name merchandise.

Though Rossy brushed off notions that his company is a supermarket challenger, grocers aren’t off his radar.

“All retailers in Canada are realistic about the fact that everyone is everyone’s competition on any given item or category,” he said.

Rossy declined to reveal how much of the chain’s sales would overlap with Loblaw or the food category, arguing the vast variety of items Dollarama sells is its strength rather than its grocery products alone.

“What makes Dollarama Dollarama is a very wide assortment of different departments that somewhat represent the old five-and-dime local convenience store,” he said.

The breadth of Dollarama’s offerings helped carry the company to a second-quarter profit of $285.9 million, up from $245.8 million in the same quarter last year as its sales rose 7.4 per cent.

The retailer said Wednesday the profit amounted to $1.02 per diluted share for the 13-week period ended July 28, up from 86 cents per diluted share a year earlier.

The period the quarter covers includes the start of summer, when Rossy said the weather was “terrible.”

“The weather got slightly better towards the end of the summer and our sales certainly increased, but not enough to make up for the season’s horrible start,” he said.

Sales totalled $1.56 billion for the quarter, up from $1.46 billion in the same quarter last year.

Comparable store sales, a key metric for retailers, increased 4.7 per cent, while the average transaction was down2.2 per cent and traffic was up seven per cent, RBC analyst Irene Nattel pointed out.

She told investors in a note that the numbers reflect “solid demand as cautious consumers focus on core consumables and everyday essentials.”

Analysts have attributed such behaviour to interest rates that have been slow to drop and high prices of key consumer goods, which are weighing on household budgets.

To cope, many Canadians have spent more time seeking deals, trading down to more affordable brands and forgoing small luxuries they would treat themselves to in better economic times.

“When people feel squeezed, they tend to shy away from discretionary, focus on the basics,” Rossy said. “When people are feeling good about their wallet, they tend to be more lax about the basics and more willing to spend on discretionary.”

The current economic situation has drawn in not just the average Canadian looking to save a buck or two, but also wealthier consumers.

“When the entire economy is feeling slightly squeezed, we get more consumers who might not have to or want to shop at a Dollarama generally or who enjoy shopping at a Dollarama but have the luxury of not having to worry about the price in some other store that they happen to be standing in that has those goods,” Rossy said.

“Well, when times are tougher, they’ll consider the extra five minutes to go to the store next door.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:DOL)

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U.S. regulator fines TD Bank US$28M for faulty consumer reports

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TORONTO – The U.S. Consumer Financial Protection Bureau has ordered TD Bank Group to pay US$28 million for repeatedly sharing inaccurate, negative information about its customers to consumer reporting companies.

The agency says TD has to pay US$7.76 million in total to tens of thousands of victims of its illegal actions, along with a US$20 million civil penalty.

It says TD shared information that contained systemic errors about credit card and bank deposit accounts to consumer reporting companies, which can include credit reports as well as screening reports for tenants and employees and other background checks.

CFPB director Rohit Chopra says in a statement that TD threatened the consumer reports of customers with fraudulent information then “barely lifted a finger to fix it,” and that regulators will need to “focus major attention” on TD Bank to change its course.

TD says in a statement it self-identified these issues and proactively worked to improve its practices, and that it is committed to delivering on its responsibilities to its customers.

The bank also faces scrutiny in the U.S. over its anti-money laundering program where it expects to pay more than US$3 billion in monetary penalties to resolve.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TD)

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