China's weakening economy might be the key to pushing inflation down in the US without a recession | Canada News Media
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China’s weakening economy might be the key to pushing inflation down in the US without a recession

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People in Hong Kong dining at a dim sum restaurant.China News Service/Getty Images
  • Disinflationary trends in the US are taking hold partly because of China’s weakening economy, according to Ed Yardeni.
  • Yardeni said on Thursday that the US could continue to see lower inflation without a recession.
  • China’s aging demographic profile and weak consumer spending is disinflationary for the US, Yardeni said.

If the US manages to get inflation back down to the Federal Reserve’s long-term target of 2% without triggering a recession, it might have to partly thank China, according to market veteran Ed Yardeni.

Yardeni highlighted in a Thursday note to clients that certain economic forces in China are having a disinflationary impact on the US, and that could ultimately pave the way for a soft landing in the US economy.

“Something is definitely wrong with China’s economy,” Yardeni said, alluding to the fact that months after the Chinese government lifted its strict COVID-19 lockdown measures, its economy hasn’t picked up accordingly.

That has flipped the economic narrative on its head, as many economists had expected at the start of this year that a reopening of China’s economy would help lift the global economy while also putting upside pressure on inflation.

But Chinese exports fell in June and the country’s imports have remained flat since mid-2021, Yardeni highlighted, and that’s leading to lower prices for goods.

“Confirming the weakness in China’s economy is that the country’s PPI fell 5.4% year-over-year through June, while the CPI was unchanged over the same period,” Yardeni said. “China’s PPI inflation rate tends to be a leading indicator for the US PPI for finished goods, which fell 2.8% year-over-year in June.”

China’sweak economy is exporting disinflationary trends to other countries, and that’s a welcome sign for the US Fed, which was likely encouraged by the Wednesday release of the June CPI report, which showed the lowest inflation levels in more than two years. The Producer Price Index for the month released on Thursday was also lower, solidifying the disinflation narrative.

“China’s economy has been weakened by the bursting of its property bubble. Its rapidly aging demographic profile is also weighing on consumer spending as China is becoming the world’s largest nursing home. This is all deflationary for China and disinflationary for the US,” Yardeni explained.

“Bottom line: Inflation can come down in the US without a recession in the US!” Yardeni said.

 

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Minimum wage to hire higher-paid temporary foreign workers set to increase

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OTTAWA – The federal government is expected to boost the minimum hourly wage that must be paid to temporary foreign workers in the high-wage stream as a way to encourage employers to hire more Canadian staff.

Under the current program’s high-wage labour market impact assessment (LMIA) stream, an employer must pay at least the median income in their province to qualify for a permit. A government official, who The Canadian Press is not naming because they are not authorized to speak publicly about the change, said Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault will announce Tuesday that the threshold will increase to 20 per cent above the provincial median hourly wage.

The change is scheduled to come into force on Nov. 8.

As with previous changes to the Temporary Foreign Worker program, the government’s goal is to encourage employers to hire more Canadian workers. The Liberal government has faced criticism for increasing the number of temporary residents allowed into Canada, which many have linked to housing shortages and a higher cost of living.

The program has also come under fire for allegations of mistreatment of workers.

A LMIA is required for an employer to hire a temporary foreign worker, and is used to demonstrate there aren’t enough Canadian workers to fill the positions they are filling.

In Ontario, the median hourly wage is $28.39 for the high-wage bracket, so once the change takes effect an employer will need to pay at least $34.07 per hour.

The government official estimates this change will affect up to 34,000 workers under the LMIA high-wage stream. Existing work permits will not be affected, but the official said the planned change will affect their renewals.

According to public data from Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, 183,820 temporary foreign worker permits became effective in 2023. That was up from 98,025 in 2019 — an 88 per cent increase.

The upcoming change is the latest in a series of moves to tighten eligibility rules in order to limit temporary residents, including international students and foreign workers. Those changes include imposing caps on the percentage of low-wage foreign workers in some sectors and ending permits in metropolitan areas with high unemployment rates.

Temporary foreign workers in the agriculture sector are not affected by past rule changes.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 21, 2024.

— With files from Nojoud Al Mallees

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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PBO projects deficit exceeded Liberals’ $40B pledge, economy to rebound in 2025

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OTTAWA – The parliamentary budget officer says the federal government likely failed to keep its deficit below its promised $40 billion cap in the last fiscal year.

However the PBO also projects in its latest economic and fiscal outlook today that weak economic growth this year will begin to rebound in 2025.

The budget watchdog estimates in its report that the federal government posted a $46.8 billion deficit for the 2023-24 fiscal year.

Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland pledged a year ago to keep the deficit capped at $40 billion and in her spring budget said the deficit for 2023-24 stayed in line with that promise.

The final tally of the last year’s deficit will be confirmed when the government publishes its annual public accounts report this fall.

The PBO says economic growth will remain tepid this year but will rebound in 2025 as the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cuts stimulate spending and business investment.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Statistics Canada says levels of food insecurity rose in 2022

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OTTAWA – Statistics Canada says the level of food insecurity increased in 2022 as inflation hit peak levels.

In a report using data from the Canadian community health survey, the agency says 15.6 per cent of households experienced some level of food insecurity in 2022 after being relatively stable from 2017 to 2021.

The reading was up from 9.6 per cent in 2017 and 11.6 per cent in 2018.

Statistics Canada says the prevalence of household food insecurity was slightly lower and stable during the pandemic years as it fell to 8.5 per cent in the fall of 2020 and 9.1 per cent in 2021.

In addition to an increase in the prevalence of food insecurity in 2022, the agency says there was an increase in the severity as more households reported moderate or severe food insecurity.

It also noted an increase in the number of Canadians living in moderately or severely food insecure households was also seen in the Canadian income survey data collected in the first half of 2023.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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