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CMHC: Nearly Half of Canadian Real Estate Markets Have “Moderate” Vulnerability – Better Dwelling

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More Canadian real estate markets are seeing increased levels of vulnerability. Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) released the September edition of the Housing Market Assessment (HMA). The assessment shows almost half of Canada’s major real estate markets have moderate levels of risk now. Many markets are also benefiting from government pandemic supports. That means they may be worse off than they appear on paper.

CMHC Housing Market Assessment

The CMHC Housing Market Assessment (HMA) is a straight-forward market look, with a color coded summary. The colors are based on a fool-proof stop light-like system. High levels of vulnerability are marked red. Those with moderate levels of are yellow. Those with no obvious signs of vulnerability are marked green.

There are a few details to keep in mind regarding timelines and sub-ratings. The overall assessment includes the past six quarters of data, but the chart only shows two. That’s why sometimes you’ll see all green for sub-ratings, but a moderate overall assessment. A market that is no longer considered overvalued, can still see a correction to prior levels. 

Speaking of overvaluation, this indicator is pretty much useless during the pandemic. Since the Q2 data uses disposable income, which surged during the pandemic, it’s higher than usual. This is due to government supports, which unpredictably, boosted that number. Since this is temporary, the agency notes overvaluations are “likely underestimated.”

Almost Half of Canadian Real Estate Markets Are Moderately Vulnerable

Canadian real estate has a moderate level of vulnerability. There are now 7 major markets displaying a moderate level of vulnerability. This is up from 5 during the February report. New markets to join these ranks are Moncton, Halifax, and Ottawa. The only market to see the rating lower back to a “low” degree of vulnerability is Regina.

Source: CMHC.

Toronto Real Estate Vulnerability Is “Moderate”

Toronto real estate is a low level of risk for all indicators, except the overall assessment. That may seem somewhat contrary to the Spring price forecast from the CMHC, showing falling prices. However, the report notes the gap between fundamentals continued to worsen. It just failed to hit the threshold line for overvaluation, due to the rise in disposable income.

Vancouver Real Estate Vulnerability Is “Moderate”

Vancouver real estate shows few signs of vulnerability, but is overall “moderate.” The report notes a widening gap between fundamentals and observed prices. They also mention government supports made the gap smaller than it would have been without them. As these supports fade, the gap between prices and fundamentals should widen further.

Montreal Real Estate Vulnerability Is “Low”

Montreal real estate saw two indicators hit moderate, but overall was still “low.” Price acceleration and overheating both reached moderate levels of vulnerability. Overvaluation approached the threshold due to a larger gap between prices and fundamentals, but didn’t breach it. The report notes this gap would be wider without government supports.

The September HMA is a little wonky, and the insights are hidden. The takeaway is less about the indicators, and more about what prevented deterioration. Like the debt-to-income ratio’s sharp decline, the positive note is somewhat deceptive. Until government supports are removed, it’s not entirely clear where the market sits. However, from today’s notes, it’s likely to get worse before it gets better.

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Greater Toronto home sales jump in October after Bank of Canada rate cuts: board

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TORONTO – The Toronto Regional Real Estate Board says home sales in October surged as buyers continued moving off the sidelines amid lower interest rates.

The board said 6,658 homes changed hands last month in the Greater Toronto Area, up 44.4 per cent compared with 4,611 in the same month last year. Sales were up 14 per cent from September on a seasonally adjusted basis.

The average selling price was up 1.1 per cent compared with a year earlier at $1,135,215. The composite benchmark price, meant to represent the typical home, was down 3.3 per cent year-over-year.

“While we are still early in the Bank of Canada’s rate cutting cycle, it definitely does appear that an increasing number of buyers moved off the sidelines and back into the marketplace in October,” said TRREB president Jennifer Pearce in a news release.

“The positive affordability picture brought about by lower borrowing costs and relatively flat home prices prompted this improvement in market activity.”

The Bank of Canada has slashed its key interest rate four times since June, including a half-percentage point cut on Oct. 23. The rate now stands at 3.75 per cent, down from the high of five per cent that deterred many would-be buyers from the housing market.

New listings last month totalled 15,328, up 4.3 per cent from a year earlier.

In the City of Toronto, there were 2,509 sales last month, a 37.6 per cent jump from October 2023. Throughout the rest of the GTA, home sales rose 48.9 per cent to 4,149.

The sales uptick is encouraging, said Cameron Forbes, general manager and broker for Re/Max Realtron Realty Inc., who added the figures for October were stronger than he anticipated.

“I thought they’d be up for sure, but not necessarily that much,” said Forbes.

“Obviously, the 50 basis points was certainly a great move in the right direction. I just thought it would take more to get things going.”

He said it shows confidence in the market is returning faster than expected, especially among existing homeowners looking for a new property.

“The average consumer who’s employed and may have been able to get some increases in their wages over the last little bit to make up some ground with inflation, I think they’re confident, so they’re looking in the market.

“The conditions are nice because you’ve got a little more time, you’ve got more choice, you’ve got fewer other buyers to compete against.”

All property types saw more sales in October compared with a year ago throughout the GTA.

Townhouses led the surge with 56.8 per cent more sales, followed by detached homes at 46.6 per cent and semi-detached homes at 44 per cent. There were 33.4 per cent more condos that changed hands year-over-year.

“Market conditions did tighten in October, but there is still a lot of inventory and therefore choice for homebuyers,” said TRREB chief market analyst Jason Mercer.

“This choice will keep home price growth moderate over the next few months. However, as inventory is absorbed and home construction continues to lag population growth, selling price growth will accelerate, likely as we move through the spring of 2025.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 6, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Homelessness: Tiny home village to open next week in Halifax suburb

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HALIFAX – A village of tiny homes is set to open next month in a Halifax suburb, the latest project by the provincial government to address homelessness.

Located in Lower Sackville, N.S., the tiny home community will house up to 34 people when the first 26 units open Nov. 4.

Another 35 people are scheduled to move in when construction on another 29 units should be complete in December, under a partnership between the province, the Halifax Regional Municipality, United Way Halifax, The Shaw Group and Dexter Construction.

The province invested $9.4 million to build the village and will contribute $935,000 annually for operating costs.

Residents have been chosen from a list of people experiencing homelessness maintained by the Affordable Housing Association of Nova Scotia.

They will pay rent that is tied to their income for a unit that is fully furnished with a private bathroom, shower and a kitchen equipped with a cooktop, small fridge and microwave.

The Atlantic Community Shelters Society will also provide support to residents, ranging from counselling and mental health supports to employment and educational services.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 24, 2024.

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Here are some facts about British Columbia’s housing market

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Housing affordability is a key issue in the provincial election campaign in British Columbia, particularly in major centres.

Here are some statistics about housing in B.C. from the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation’s 2024 Rental Market Report, issued in January, and the B.C. Real Estate Association’s August 2024 report.

Average residential home price in B.C.: $938,500

Average price in greater Vancouver (2024 year to date): $1,304,438

Average price in greater Victoria (2024 year to date): $979,103

Average price in the Okanagan (2024 year to date): $748,015

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Vancouver: $2,181

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Victoria: $1,839

Average two-bedroom purpose-built rental in Canada: $1,359

Rental vacancy rate in Vancouver: 0.9 per cent

How much more do new renters in Vancouver pay compared with renters who have occupied their home for at least a year: 27 per cent

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 17, 2024.

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