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COMMENTARY: Budget 2022 and Canada’s incredible disappearing deficits – Global News

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Before we’d ever heard of COVID, there was a time when the first question asked of any Finance Minister delivering their budget was always: “Is it balanced?” Those days are long gone, and the pandemic is a big reason why.

Federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland delivered her 2022-23 budget this week, with a bottom line that is $53 billion in the red. Once upon a time that would have been considered a big deficit, but no longer. Very few of the questions she faced in the post-budget scrum had anything to do with the deficit.

Read more:

Budget 2022: Liberals will put $15B toward new business investment fund

Even the Opposition seemed half-hearted about attacking the red ink. Conservatives complain about Liberal “big spending,” but then propose their own measures (including tax cuts) that would produce a virtually identical deficit.

Best of all, that $53 billion deficit is melting away before our eyes anyway – without pompous rhetoric about “fiscal rectitude,” or without painful austerity. This year’s deficit is less than half the size of last year’s, which in turn was one-third the previous deficit.

The annual deficit has shrunk by $275 billion in just two years, even as the government announces new initiatives: like $5 billion for the dental care program it negotiated with the NDP.

Read more:

Dental care program for kids under 12 will roll out by end of year: Budget 2022

What gives? Why is the deficit disappearing, both in dollars and in political importance? It seems that we’ve all learned a thing or two about budgets since the pandemic struck.

The first is that governments have virtually unlimited power to spend big when they need to. They did it before: like in the Second World War when no politician would dare to complain that Canada’s military effort was “too expensive.” And they did it again during COVID. Ottawa boosted spending $250 billion in one year to protect health, and keep Canadians working and in their homes; the provinces spent tens of billions more.






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Full breakdown of the 2022 Federal budget


Full breakdown of the 2022 Federal budget

The second lesson is that infatuation with balanced budgets is misplaced and counterproductive. Economists have come to appreciate that deficits, even long-running ones, can play a vital role in supporting growth and jobs when other sources of spending (like business investment or exports) are inadequate.

The final and most pleasant lesson is that the best way to get rid of a deficit is not to slash-and-burn public programs – as Canada did in the 1990s, and Europe did in the 2010s. Apart from imposing avoidable harm on society (shrinking services and infrastructure), austerity also undermines the fundamental math of fiscal progress. By sapping the macroeconomy of so much spending power, austerity slows growth, causing self-inflicted damage to the government’s own budget.
The exact opposite dynamic is now occurring in Canada, to the delight of Ms. Freeland – and her provincial counterparts. Canada’s economy is firing on all cylinders. And government’s aggressive response to the pandemic is the main reason why.

Read more:

Canadian economy grew 0.2% in January despite COVID restrictions

Canada’s nominal GDP grew at an astounding annualized rate of over 13 per cent in the fourth quarter of 2021. Growth this year may be as fast, perhaps faster. The unemployment rate hit a new 50-year low of 5.3 per cent in March. Wages are growing as a result, pumping billions into Canadians’ wallets – and billions into government coffers (via income taxes and GST).

This rapid growth reflects a combination of recovery from the pandemic, strong job creation, rising world prices for our resource exports, and inflation. Indeed, for the first time in 30 years, growth is so strong the Bank of Canada is now struggling to keep inflation within its target range (of 1 to 3 per cent). That will mean higher interest rates in the coming months (though rates will stay low by historical standards). But that same inflation is boosting government revenues and shrinking the deficit.






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Ways to save money as inflation soars


Ways to save money as inflation soars – Mar 26, 2022

This happy fiscal recipe is being enjoyed by provincial governments, too. Several have already balanced their budgets – even Alberta, which had the worst deficit of all (relative to GDP) during the pandemic. Across the country, remaining provincial deficits equal just 1 per cent of GDP: puny by any standard.

Read more:

Most Canadian provinces have ‘roared back’ amid disappearing COVID deficits: report

Through these hard and frightening two years, Canadians have learned government can and must do big, expensive things to protect us when needed. Governments were not put on earth to balance their budgets; they were invented to protect and advance the public interest. And the best way to pay for the things government does is to create jobs and grow the economy. That’s now happening in a big way – and Canadians are better off for it.

Minister Freeland did not set a specific timetable for balancing the budget, and this is appropriate: partly because medium-run projections are inherently uncertain, but mostly because we now realize it doesn’t matter. By the last year of her forecast (2026-27), the remaining deficit is no more than a rounding error. And it’s not any more significant in political terms, either.

Jim Stanford is an economist and director of the Centre for Future Work in Vancouver.

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RCMP investigating after three found dead in Lloydminster, Sask.

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LLOYDMINSTER, SASK. – RCMP are investigating the deaths of three people in Lloydminster, Sask.

They said in a news release Thursday that there is no risk to the public.

On Wednesday evening, they said there was a heavy police presence around 50th Street and 47th Avenue as officers investigated an “unfolding incident.”

Mounties have not said how the people died, their ages or their genders.

Multiple media reports from the scene show yellow police tape blocking off a home, as well as an adjacent road and alleyway.

The city of Lloydminster straddles the Alberta-Saskatchewan border.

Mounties said the three people were found on the Saskatchewan side of the city, but that the Alberta RCMP are investigating.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published on Sept. 12, 2024.

Note to readers: This is a corrected story; An earlier version said the three deceased were found on the Alberta side of Lloydminster.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Three injured in Kingston, Ont., assault, police negotiating suspect’s surrender

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KINGSTON, Ont. – Police in Kingston, Ont., say three people have been sent to hospital with life-threatening injuries after a violent daytime assault.

Kingston police say officers have surrounded a suspect and were trying to negotiate his surrender as of 1 p.m.

Spokesperson Const. Anthony Colangeli says police received reports that the suspect may have been wielding an edged or blunt weapon, possibly both.

Colangeli says officers were called to the Integrated Care Hub around 10:40 a.m. after a report of a serious assault.

He says the three victims were all assaulted “in the vicinity,” of the drop-in health centre, not inside.

Police have closed Montreal Street between Railway Street and Hickson Avenue.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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Government intervention in Air Canada talks a threat to competition: Transat CEO

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Demands for government intervention in Air Canada labour talks could negatively affect airline competition in Canada, the CEO of travel company Transat AT Inc. said.

“The extension of such an extraordinary intervention to Air Canada would be an undeniable competitive advantage to the detriment of other Canadian airlines,” Annick Guérard told analysts on an earnings conference call on Thursday.

“The time and urgency is now. It is time to restore healthy competition in Canada,” she added.

Air Canada has asked the federal government to be ready to intervene and request arbitration as early as this weekend to avoid disruptions.

Comments on the potential Air Canada pilot strike or lock out came as Transat reported third-quarter financial results.

Guérard recalled Transat’s labour negotiations with its flight attendants earlier this year, which the company said it handled without asking for government intervention.

The airline’s 2,100 flight attendants voted 99 per cent in favour of a strike mandate and twice rejected tentative deals before approving a new collective agreement in late February.

As the collective agreement for Air Transat pilots ends in June next year, Guérard anticipates similar pressure to increase overall wages as seen in Air Canada’s negotiations, but reckons it will come out “as a win, win, win deal.”

“The pilots are preparing on their side, we are preparing on our side and we’re confident that we’re going to come up with a reasonable deal,” she told analysts when asked about the upcoming negotiations.

The parent company of Air Transat reported it lost $39.9 million or $1.03 per diluted share in its quarter ended July 31. The result compared with a profit of $57.3 million or $1.49 per diluted share a year earlier.

Revenue totalled $736.2 million, down from $746.3 million in the same quarter last year.

On an adjusted basis, Transat says it lost $1.10 per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of $1.10 per share a year earlier.

It attributed reduced revenues to lower airline unit revenues, competition, industry-wide overcapacity and economic uncertainty.

Air Transat is also among the airlines facing challenges related to the recall of Pratt & Whitney turbofan jet engines for inspection and repair.

The recall has so far grounded six aircraft, Guérard said on the call.

“We have agreed to financial compensation for grounded aircraft during the 2023-2024 period,” she said. “Alongside this financial compensation, Pratt & Whitney will provide us with two additional spare engines, which we intend to monetize through a sell and lease back transaction.”

Looking ahead, the CEO said she expects consumer demand to remain somewhat uncertain amid high interest rates.

“We are currently seeing ongoing pricing pressure extending into the winter season,” she added. Air Transat is not planning on adding additional aircraft next year but anticipates stability.

“(2025) for us will be much more stable than 2024 in terms of fleet movements and operation, and this will definitely have a positive effect on cost and customer satisfaction as well,” the CEO told analysts.

“We are more and more moving away from all the disruption that we had to go through early in 2024,” she added.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 12, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRZ)

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.



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