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COMMENTARY: The ‘trade bonanza’ with China was a bust. Canada must look elsewhere – Globalnews.ca

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How often have we heard over the past few years that Canada could not afford to harm its growing trade relationship with China because the country would miss out on its share of the biggest economic bonanza of the 21st century?

Seduced by potential lucre at the end of this rainbow, Justin Trudeau’s Liberal government has zealously pursued trade with Beijing. The prime minister appointed two ambassadors, John McCallum and Dominic Barton, who were as ardent admirers of China as he and Liberal grandees such as Jean Chretien and John Manley.

READ MORE: Most Canadians think Trudeau should rely less on trade with China, Ipsos poll says

As just about every Canadian knows, that intention has been ill-starred since Huawei heiress Meng Wanzhou was detained in Vancouver 19 months ago where she has become a reluctant participant in extradition proceedings that will decide whether she should face serious fraud charges in the U.S. and China responded by kidnapping Canadians Michael Kovrig and Michael Spavor. Relations between the two countries are now at their lowest ebb by far since Pierre Trudeau established diplomatic relations with China half a century ago this October with no hint that they might get better any time soon.

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For reasons known only to themselves, while most of the developed world began distancing itself from China a couple of years ago, Prime Minister Trudeau and Ambassador Barton seem to have remained convinced that things with China would still work out somehow. Or they thought so until a few months ago. Since then they’ve been rather quiet about the future of Ottawa’s moribund relationship with Beijing.

With Canada’s China policy effectively a dead letter, what’s next?

For starters, there will still be some trade (mostly raw resources and agricultural products) with China. It will not be anything like the many hundreds of billions of dollars a year in potential spoils that once dazzled the Canadian government and many Canadian business leaders, but it is still likely to be substantial.

When assessing the economic fallout from the Meng/Two Michaels confusion, a more global perspective is required. Canada is hardly the only developed country whose trade and diplomatic ties with China have become frayed. The U.S., Japan, Australia, the United Kingdom and a few of the most important players in the European Union are equally ill-disposed towards President Xi Jinping’s dictatorship today.

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It is also a fact that despite all the noise about China being the golden egg, only 12.4 per cent of its imports and 3.9 per cent of its exports went to and came from China. Those are impressive numbers, to be sure, but they are not so large as to be economy killers.

Seldom discussed is that Canada did more than seven and a half times more trade with the U.S. than China last year and 30 per cent more trade with the European Union. Even Canada’s trade with Mexico was a surprisingly robust 50 per cent of what it was with China.

READ MORE: Caving to China’s demand to release Meng Wanzhou would put Canadians in danger, Trudeau says

As for areas of potential growth, senior officials from Japan, India and Vietnam, which all have territorial disputes and complicated relationships with China, have emphatically told me over the past year that they wish to greatly grow their countries’ trade relations with Canada and have been baffled by Ottawa’s lack of interest. As it is, taken together, these three countries do about half as much trade with Canada today as China does.

Similarly, there is room for lots of growth in trade with Taiwan, South Korea, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Australia and New Zealand.

Canada must look beyond Asia for new opportunities and as part of western efforts to prevent China from dominating many distant markets. There should, for example, be more trade with Latin America, where Chinese business interests have been super busy.

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Ottawa should encourage Canadian banks to return to the crucial role they played in the Caribbean until a few years ago. With Canada largely absent, China has filled the vacuum there, building airports and cricket grounds.






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Coronavirus: Trump says he holds China responsible for ‘unleashing’ COVID-19


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During several fairly recent visits to Africa, I got an earful in the streets and the countryside about China’s big and growing business presence and the boorish behaviour of many of the Chinese working on infrastructure projects that they’ve met there. There is also anger and exasperation with their own political leaders for having become so friendly with Beijing’s bankers and leaders and for having sold them large tracts of farmland.

Canada does not have the resources to change much in Africa. But targeted opportunities and development in conjunction with close allies could pay dividends.

To give actual meaning to the slogan, “Canada’s back,” the Trudeau government should for the first time assume a major global leadership role by pressing the U.S. hard to join the 11 country Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP). Achieving this will be a very tough sell as long as President Donald Trump resides on Pennsylvania Avenue, but there is a growing likelihood that Democrat Joe Biden will unseat the incumbent in November’s election.

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Democrats tend to be protectionist, but they are as strongly opposed to China’s ambitions in Asia and elsewhere as Trump is. It is also a given that if the Democrats control the presidency, the Senate and the Congress, they will be keen to repair the wreckage that Trump has created in American relations with most of its allies and potential allies.

READ MORE: Canadian minister promises review after security contracts awarded to Chinese-state tech company

As the Tories have repeatedly demanded, Canada should immediately quit the Beijing-based Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank. As Canadian diplomats told the government earlier this year, the AIIB burnishes China’s reputation, though not Canada’s, and spreads China’s influence and authoritarian political model across the developing world. Being part of the AIIB has turned out to be a cock-eyed way of spending about $360 million.

Withdrawing from the AIIB might make it easier to convince American legislators to join the four-year-old TPP and reinvigorate the much older, Japanese-led Asian Development Bank, of which Canada and the U.S. are both members.

Putting all these parts together could make up for what has been lost as relations with China have soured badly. However, to get there from here will require a new mindset in Ottawa and far more complex, trenchant and original strategic thinking than Global Affairs Canada and Canadian trade officials have yet demonstrated.

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If well-executed, such a reboot could make up for most or all of the trade with China that Canada is likely to lose out on. Such a scheme would make Canada stronger, too, because it would end up with a much broader web of trading partners and strategic alliances, especially in the Indo-Pacific.

As important, it would restore some of the self-respect and lustre that Canada lost when it decided to invest so much time and political capital in its misbegotten effort to be China’s best pal.

Matthew Fisher is an international affairs columnist and foreign correspondent who has worked abroad for 35 years. You can follow him on Twitter at @mfisheroverseas

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Virginia Democrats advance efforts to protect abortion, voting rights, marriage equality

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RICHMOND, Va. (AP) — Democrats who control both chambers of the Virginia legislature are hoping to make good on promises made on the campaign trail, including becoming the first Southern state to expand constitutional protections for abortion access.

The House Privileges and Elections Committee advanced three proposed constitutional amendments Wednesday, including a measure to protect reproductive rights. Its members also discussed measures to repeal a now-defunct state constitutional ban on same-sex marriage and ways to revise Virginia’s process to restore voting rights for people who served time for felony crimes.

“This meeting was an important next step considering the moment in history we find ourselves in,” Democratic Del. Cia Price, the committee chair, said during a news conference. “We have urgent threats to our freedoms that could impact constituents in all of the districts we serve.”

The at-times raucous meeting will pave the way for the House and Senate to take up the resolutions early next year after lawmakers tabled the measures last January. Democrats previously said the move was standard practice, given that amendments are typically introduced in odd-numbered years. But Republican Minority Leader Todd Gilbert said Wednesday the committee should not have delved into the amendments before next year’s legislative session. He said the resolutions, particularly the abortion amendment, need further vetting.

“No one who is still serving remembers it being done in this way ever,” Gilbert said after the meeting. “Certainly not for something this important. This is as big and weighty an issue as it gets.”

The Democrats’ legislative lineup comes after Republican Governor Glenn Youngkin, to the dismay of voting-rights advocates, rolled back a process to restore people’s civil rights after they completed sentences for felonies. Virginia is the only state that permanently bans anyone convicted of a felony from voting unless a governor restores their rights.

“This amendment creates a process that is bounded by transparent rules and criteria that will apply to everybody — it’s not left to the discretion of a single individual,” Del. Elizabeth Bennett-Parker, the patron of the voting rights resolution, which passed along party lines, said at the news conference.

Though Democrats have sparred with the governor over their legislative agenda, constitutional amendments put forth by lawmakers do not require his signature, allowing the Democrat-led House and Senate to bypass Youngkin’s blessing.

Instead, the General Assembly must pass proposed amendments twice in at least two years, with a legislative election sandwiched between each statehouse session. After that, the public can vote by referendum on the issues. The cumbersome process will likely hinge upon the success of all three amendments on Democrats’ ability to preserve their edge in the House and Senate, where they hold razor-thin majorities.

It’s not the first time lawmakers have attempted to champion the three amendments. Republicans in a House subcommittee killed a constitutional amendment to restore voting rights in 2022, a year after the measure passed in a Democrat-led House. The same subcommittee also struck down legislation supporting a constitutional amendment to repeal an amendment from 2006 banning marriage equality.

On Wednesday, a bipartisan group of lawmakers voted 16-5 in favor of legislation protecting same-sex marriage, with four Republicans supporting the resolution.

“To say the least, voters enacted this (amendment) in 2006, and we have had 100,000 voters a year become of voting age since then,” said Del. Mark Sickles, who sponsored the amendment as one of the first openly gay men serving in the General Assembly. “Many people have changed their opinions of this as the years have passed.”

A constitutional amendment protecting abortion previously passed the Senate in 2023 but died in a Republican-led House. On Wednesday, the amendment passed on party lines.

If successful, the resolution proposed by House Majority Leader Charniele Herring would be part of a growing trend of reproductive rights-related ballot questions given to voters. Since 2022, 18 questions have gone before voters across the U.S., and they have sided with abortion rights advocates 14 times.

The voters have approved constitutional amendments ensuring the right to abortion until fetal viability in nine states: Arizona, California, Colorado, Maryland, Michigan, Missouri, Montana, Ohio and Vermont. Voters also passed a right-to-abortion measure in Nevada in 2024, but it must be passed again in 2026 to be added to the state constitution.

As lawmakers debated the measure, roughly 18 members spoke. Mercedes Perkins, at 38 weeks pregnant, described the importance of women making decisions about their own bodies. Rhea Simon, another Virginia resident, anecdotally described how reproductive health care shaped her life.

Then all at once, more than 50 people lined up to speak against the abortion amendment.

“Let’s do the compassionate thing and care for mothers and all unborn children,” resident Sheila Furey said.

The audience gave a collective “Amen,” followed by a round of applause.

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Associated Press writer Geoff Mulvihill in Cherry Hill, New Jersey, contributed to this report.

___

Olivia Diaz is a corps member for The Associated Press/Report for America Statehouse News Initiative.

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Vancouver Canucks winger Joshua set for season debut after cancer treatment

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Vancouver Canucks winger Dakota Joshua is set to make his season debut Thursday after missing time for cancer treatment.

Head coach Rick Tocchet says Joshua will slot into the lineup Thursday when Vancouver (8-3-3) hosts the New York Islanders.

The 28-year-old from Dearborn, Mich., was diagnosed with testicular cancer this summer and underwent surgery in early September.

He spoke earlier this month about his recovery, saying it had been “very hard to go through” and that he was thankful for support from his friends, family, teammates and fans.

“That was a scary time but I am very thankful and just happy to be in this position still and be able to go out there and play,,” Joshua said following Thursday’s morning skate.

The cancer diagnosis followed a career season where Joshua contributed 18 goals and 14 assists across 63 regular-season games, then added four goals and four assists in the playoffs.

Now, he’s ready to focus on contributing again.

“I expect to be good, I don’t expect a grace period. I’ve been putting the work in so I expect to come out there and make an impact as soon as possible,” he said.

“I don’t know if it’s going to be perfect right from the get-go, but it’s about putting your best foot forward and working your way to a point of perfection.”

The six-foot-three, 206-pound Joshua signed a four-year, US$13-million contract extension at the end of June.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 14, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Trump chooses anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. as health secretary

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NEW YORK (AP) — President-elect Donald Trump says he will nominate anti-vaccine activist Robert F. Kennedy Jr. to lead the Department of Health and Human Services, putting him in charge of a massive agency that oversees everything from drug, vaccine and food safety to medical research and the social safety net programs Medicare and Medicaid.

“For too long, Americans have been crushed by the industrial food complex and drug companies who have engaged in deception, misinformation, and disinformation when it comes to Public Health,” Trump said in a post on his Truth Social site announcing the appointment. Kennedy, he said, would “Make America Great and Healthy Again!”

Kennedy, a former Democrat who ran as an independent in this year’s presidential race, abandoned his bid after striking a deal to give Trump his endorsement with a promise to have a role in health policy in the administration.

He and Trump have since become good friends, with Kennedy frequently receiving loud applause at Trump’s rallies.

The expected appointment was first reported by Politico Thursday.

A longtime vaccine skeptic, Kennedy is an attorney who has built a loyal following over several decades of people who admire his lawsuits against major pesticide and pharmaceutical companies. He has pushed for tighter regulations around the ingredients in foods.

With the Trump campaign, he worked to shore up support among young mothers in particular, with his message of making food healthier in the U.S., promising to model regulations imposed in Europe. In a nod to Trump’s original campaign slogan, he named the effort “Make America Healthy Again.”

It remains unclear how that will square with Trump’s history of deregulation of big industries, including food. Trump pushed for fewer inspections of the meat industry, for example.

Kennedy’s stance on vaccines has also made him a controversial figure among Democrats and some Republicans, raising question about his ability to get confirmed, even in a GOP-controlled Senate. Kennedy has espoused misinformation around the safety of vaccines, including pushing a totally discredited theory that childhood vaccines cause autism.

He also has said he would recommend removing fluoride from drinking water. The addition of the material has been cited as leading to improved dental health.

HHS has more than 80,000 employees across the country. It houses the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, the Medicare and Medicaid programs and the National Institutes of Health.

Kennedy’s anti-vaccine nonprofit group, Children’s Health Defense, currently has a lawsuit pending against a number of news organizations, among them The Associated Press, accusing them of violating antitrust laws by taking action to identify misinformation, including about COVID-19 and COVID-19 vaccines. Kennedy took leave from the group when he announced his run for president but is listed as one of its attorneys in the lawsuit.

__ Seitz reported from Washington.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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