Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell is predicting that more small banks will likely close or merge due to commercial real estate weaknesses, but that the problem is ultimately “manageable.”
The central bank official made this point during a 60 Minutes interview that aired Sunday night. It was Powell’s first comments about the industry following a new bout of turmoil cascading through the stocks of many regional banks.
“I don’t think there’s much risk of a repeat of 2008,” Powell said, referring to a financial crisis 16 years ago that took down some of the biggest institutions on Wall Street as well as hundreds of banks across the US.
“I do think it’s a manageable problem,” he added.
Federal Reserve Board Chair Jerome Powell. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon) (ASSOCIATED PRESS)
The stock of the Hicksville, N.Y.-based lender fell 38% on Wednesday and another 11% on Thursday, dragging the rest of the sector down with it. The stocks recovered Friday but are in the red once again on Monday. New York Community Bancorp was down more than 7% in morning trading.
Powell acknowledged in his 60 Minutes interview that some smaller banks will “have to be closed” or merged “out of existence” due to losses tied to the falling values of properties across the US that are suddenly worth much less due to the Fed’s elevated interest rates and the effect of a pandemic that emptied out many city-center buildings.
But “we looked at the larger banks’ balance sheets, and it appears to be a manageable problem,” Powell said on 60 Minutes.
“There’s some smaller and regional banks that have concentrated exposures in these areas that are challenged. And, you know, we’re working with them. This is something we’ve been aware of for, you know, a long time, and we’re working with them to make sure that they have the resources and a plan to work their way through the expected losses.”
Regional banks are particularly vulnerable because they hold a lot more exposure to these properties than larger rivals. For banks with more than $100 billion in assets, commercial real estate loans only account for 13% of total credit. For smaller banks, they account for 44% of total bank credit.
Loans tied to offices and certain multifamily housing properties are showing the most weakness. Not all segments of commercial real estate are expected to face the same problems.
David Chiaverini, a regional and midsized bank analyst for Wedbush Securities, told Yahoo Finance that commercial real estate “will be managed better at some of the other banks” than at New York Community Bancorp, which also has a high level of exposure to rent-controlled apartment complexes in New York City. Those buildings account for 22% of its loans.
New York Community Bancorp has a sizable presence in New York City. REUTERS/Mike Segar/File Photo (Reuters / Reuters)
Chiaverini said the bank should have set aside more in reserves last year while booking a gain from its purchase of assets from the failed Signature Bank.
“The severity of the issue is, I would say, mostly idiosyncratic to New York Community Bank because they were so under-reserved relative to the risk in their portfolio,” he added.
The “perfect storm” that could create problems for the rest of the industry, according to Chiaverini, is that if inflation goes back up, forcing the Fed to keep rates higher for longer, and the US economy enters a recession. Borrowers would then have problems keeping up with their loans.
If those things don’t happen, the commercial real estate pain should be “manageable” for the banks, he added.
The Fed chair repeated that same word three times in his 60 Minutes interview.
“It should be manageable,” Powell said.
David Hollerith is a senior reporter for Yahoo Finance covering banking, crypto, and other areas in finance.
OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.
The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.
On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.
CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”
The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.
The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.
MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.
Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.
She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.
The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.
One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.
MONTREAL – The Quebec Professional Association of Real Estate Brokers says Montreal-area home sales rose 9.3 per cent in August compared with the same month last year, with levels slightly higher than the historical average for this time of year.
The association says home sales in the region totalled 2,991 for the month, up from 2,737 in August 2023.
The median price for all housing types was up year-over-year, led by a six per cent increase for the price of a plex at $763,000 last month.
The median price for a single-family home rose 5.2 per cent to $590,000 and the median price for a condominium rose 4.4 per cent to $407,100.
QPAREB market analysis director Charles Brant says the strength of the Montreal resale market contrasts with declines in many other Canadian cities struggling with higher levels of household debt, lower savings and diminishing purchasing power.
Active listings for August jumped 18 per cent compared with a year earlier to 17,200, while new listings rose 1.7 per cent to 4,840.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 6, 2024.
