Companies' 'bank lines will be cut': Oilpatch pummelled as oil price crash raises fears of job losses - Financial Post | Canada News Media
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Companies' 'bank lines will be cut': Oilpatch pummelled as oil price crash raises fears of job losses – Financial Post

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On Sunday afternoon, Brian Schmidt, chief executive of Calgary-based Tamarack Valley Energy Ltd., glanced at the mayhem in the oil price futures market and immediately knew the world had changed since his board of directors met several days earlier.

“Right then and there, you knew it was going to be a bloodbath,” said Schmidt, who immediately fired off an email to his staff cancelling any new drilling projects.

The ground in Alberta may still be frozen, but the drilling season is likely to end before mud season begins thanks to an escalating feud between Russia and Saudi Arabia over how to rebalance oil supply, as the deadly coronavirus strain COVID-19 spreads, threw markets across the world, including in Canada, into turmoil.

Instead of cutting back on production, two of the world’s biggest oil exporters dug in their heels, with Saudi Arabia signalling it will raise production. That triggered a war for market share that on Monday sent oil prices down by as much as 30 per cent and battered Alberta’s already ailing energy sector. The S&P/TSX Composite Index had its worst day in more than a decade, falling more than 10 per cent while the Capped Energy Index fell just over 27 per cent with Cenovus Energy Inc. losing nearly $4.5 billion in market capitalization as its stock plummeted 51 per cent by end of close.

Most large producers, including Suncor Energy Inc. and Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. also experienced double-digit declines in their share prices as did junior and intermediate producers’ such as Schmidt’s Tamarack, which lost hundreds of millions of dollars in value as its share price declined 30 per cent on Monday.

The hits come as Canada’s oil sector is struggling through a prolonged period of low oil prices and a lack of pipeline capacity to move their product that has repelled many investors — including most recently the legendary investor Warren Buffett, who pulled out of a liquefied natural gas project in Quebec last week — and left the smallest companies on precarious financial footing.

Right then and there, you knew it was going to be a bloodbath

After the latest blow rained down Monday, many analysts and economists predicted the severe impact to Alberta and the rest of Canada’s economy would add pressure on the federal government to introduce some form of economic stimulus in the coming months.

“The drop in oil prices is just the second wave of the coronavirus impact on Canada,” said Avery Shenfeld, chief economist for CIBC Capital Markets.

The first hits came when manufacturing, air travel and shipping slowed as businesses shut down and people stayed home in response to the spread of the COVID-19 virus. But while low oil prices normally provide a form of economic stimulus, it is unlikely to have an effect in an environment where people are trying to contain the spread of a super bug, said Shenfeld.

The current situation is clouded by uncertainty, including whether either Saudi Arabia or Russia will back down or whether other countries, including shale producers in the U.S., will have to curtail production because oil prices are too low, Shenfeld said.


Drilling rigs in Texas.

Nick Oxford/Reuters files

Either way, he predicted that Canadian oil producers would cut capital expenditures if oil prices remain depressed, which would have ripple effects on the rest of the economy.

“One way or another, there will be pressure on the federal government to deliver some fiscal stimulus,” said Shenfeld.

That could be one-time funding to provincial health authorities as they deal with coronavirus, one-time cheques to families to encourage spending or support for companies that are affected by the virus, he said.

“The only thing I can guarantee you is volatility,” said Joseph Marchand, an associate professor of economics at the University of Alberta.

Marchand, who has studied how Alberta’s economy has responded to past booms and busts in oil prices, said volatility is likely to delay hiring decisions, and could even result in firings.

But the outlook is not entirely bleak and some predicted the sell-off of Canadian oil stocks was an overreaction.

Richard Masson, an executive fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy and chairman of the World Petroleum Council Canada, said he believes Russia’s decision to not cut back its production is actually aimed at weakening U.S. shale producers who need to drill new wells every few weeks. They will have difficulty raising money to do so as low oil prices persist, he said.

The drop in oil prices is just the second wave of the coronavirus impact on Canada

Avery Shenfeld

“I think the plan from the Russian side is really to make those people (in the U.S.) run out of money,” said Masson. “The problem in Canada is that will take a while.”

The largest producers, including Cenovus, Suncor and Canadian Natural, are actually well-positioned to withstand the downturn, because of the lack of pipeline access, they have spent the past few years paying down debt and buying back shares, Masson said.

Oilsands projects, which are generally very expensive to build, can also withstand price volatility, he added.

“I’ve never seen an oilsands project get shut-in by low oil prices — never seen it happen,” said Masson, saying the costs of shutting down and laying off people are too high.

But he and others predicted that there would be a more severe impact for the country’s smallest producers, in Alberta and beyond.

Laura Lau, chief investment officer at Toronto-based Brompton Funds said the oil price crash will hurt the domestic industry.

“It gets worse, and we are at risk of actually shutting in some of our oil and gas. I don’t believe the oilsands, especially the big oilsands mine… but what we have seen in the past is some of the in situ, SAGD projects… and we can certainly see some of the oil and gas being shut over these low prices,” Lau told the Financial Post.


An aerial view of a Canadian Natural Resources Limited oilsands mine in Alberta.

Ryan Jackson/Edmonton Journal

Equity markets that were once a lifeline for oil firms in times of distress have started to dry up as investment giants such as BlackRock Inc. pull back from the sector, forcing producers to rely on debt instead. For companies that are struggling to turn a profit, the latest coronavirus disruption adds a new layer of volatility and risk that will deter bank lending, according to Peter Tertzakian, executive director of the ARC Energy Research Institute.

“When the price of oil was in the mid-US$50 range, you had a lot of companies just sort of stumbling along,” Tertzakian said, who added, “Well, this event basically puts them over the edge. Companies that were in the US$50 range basically will have their bank lines cut.”

The hit to the energy sector will reverberate throughout the Canadian economy too, with deeper regional impacts in oil-producing provinces such as Alberta, Saskatchewan and Newfoundland, where deficits are likely and economic growth will slow.

Nonetheless, some energy companies are riding with the latest wave, by now accustomed to protests over pipelines, rail blockades and  COVID-19.

Grant Fagerheim, chief executive of Calgary-based Whitecap Resources, said the drop in oil prices was “even more aggressive” than he expected. He said the company has mostly fixed debt with no maturities — including $1.2 billion in non-current liabilities as of the end of last year — and is focused on paying down debt.

The latest disruption arrived just days before a planned three-month break up for the mud season, providing ample time to take stock and make a decision about how much to cut spending, if at all.

“The worst thing you can do is overreact,” Fagerheim said. “You have to be quick, but don’t overreact.”

With a file from Naomi Powell

Financial Post

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Telus prioritizing ‘most important customers,’ avoiding ‘unprofitable’ offers: CFO

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Telus Corp. says it is avoiding offering “unprofitable” discounts as fierce competition in the Canadian telecommunications sector shows no sign of slowing down.

The company said Friday it had fewer net new customers during its third quarter compared with the same time last year, as it copes with increasingly “aggressive marketing and promotional pricing” that is prompting more customers to switch providers.

Telus said it added 347,000 net new customers, down around 14.5 per cent compared with last year. The figure includes 130,000 mobile phone subscribers and 34,000 internet customers, down 30,000 and 3,000, respectively, year-over-year.

The company reported its mobile phone churn rate — a metric measuring subscribers who cancelled their services — was 1.09 per cent in the third quarter, up from 1.03 per cent in the third quarter of 2023. That included a postpaid mobile phone churn rate of 0.90 per cent in its latest quarter.

Telus said its focus is on customer retention through its “industry-leading service and network quality, along with successful promotions and bundled offerings.”

“The customers we have are the most important customers we can get,” said chief financial officer Doug French in an interview.

“We’ve, again, just continued to focus on what matters most to our customers, from a product and customer service perspective, while not loading unprofitable customers.”

Meanwhile, Telus reported its net income attributable to common shares more than doubled during its third quarter.

The telecommunications company said it earned $280 million, up 105.9 per cent from the same three-month period in 2023. Earnings per diluted share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 was 19 cents compared with nine cents a year earlier.

It reported adjusted net income was $413 million, up 10.7 per cent year-over-year from $373 million in the same quarter last year. Operating revenue and other income for the quarter was $5.1 billion, up 1.8 per cent from the previous year.

Mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.85 in the third quarter, a decrease of $2.09 or 3.4 per cent from a year ago. Telus said the drop was attributable to customers signing up for base rate plans with lower prices, along with a decline in overage and roaming revenues.

It said customers are increasingly adopting unlimited data and Canada-U.S. plans which provide higher and more stable ARPU on a monthly basis.

“In a tough operating environment and relative to peers, we view Q3 results that were in line to slightly better than forecast as the best of the bunch,” said RBC analyst Drew McReynolds in a note.

Scotiabank analyst Maher Yaghi added that “the telecom industry in Canada remains very challenging for all players, however, Telus has been able to face these pressures” and still deliver growth.

The Big 3 telecom providers — which also include Rogers Communications Inc. and BCE Inc. — have frequently stressed that the market has grown more competitive in recent years, especially after the closing of Quebecor Inc.’s purchase of Freedom Mobile in April 2023.

Hailed as a fourth national carrier, Quebecor has invested in enhancements to Freedom’s network while offering more affordable plans as part of a set of commitments it was mandated by Ottawa to agree to.

The cost of telephone services in September was down eight per cent compared with a year earlier, according to Statistics Canada’s most recent inflation report last month.

“I think competition has been and continues to be, I’d say, quite intense in Canada, and we’ve obviously had to just manage our business the way we see fit,” said French.

Asked how long that environment could last, he said that’s out of Telus’ hands.

“What I can control, though, is how we go to market and how we lead with our products,” he said.

“I think the conditions within the market will have to adjust accordingly over time. We’ve continued to focus on digitization, continued to bring our cost structure down to compete, irrespective of the price and the current market conditions.”

Still, Canada’s telecom regulator continues to warn providers about customers facing more charges on their cellphone and internet bills.

On Tuesday, CRTC vice-president of consumer, analytics and strategy Scott Hutton called on providers to ensure they clearly inform their customers of charges such as early cancellation fees.

That followed statements from the regulator in recent weeks cautioning against rising international roaming fees and “surprise” price increases being found on their bills.

Hutton said the CRTC plans to launch public consultations in the coming weeks that will focus “on ensuring that information is clear and consistent, making it easier to compare offers and switch services or providers.”

“The CRTC is concerned with recent trends, which suggest that Canadians may not be benefiting from the full protections of our codes,” he said.

“We will continue to monitor developments and will take further action if our codes are not being followed.”

French said any initiative to boost transparency is a step in the right direction.

“I can’t say we are perfect across the board, but what I can say is we are absolutely taking it under consideration and trying to be the best at communicating with our customers,” he said.

“I think everyone looking in the mirror would say there’s room for improvement.”

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 8, 2024.

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TC Energy cuts cost estimate for Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico

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CALGARY – TC Energy Corp. has lowered the estimated cost of its Southeast Gateway pipeline project in Mexico.

It says it now expects the project to cost between US$3.9 billion and US$4.1 billion compared with its original estimate of US$4.5 billion.

The change came as the company reported a third-quarter profit attributable to common shareholders of C$1.46 billion or $1.40 per share compared with a loss of C$197 million or 19 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

Revenue for the quarter ended Sept. 30 totalled C$4.08 billion, up from C$3.94 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

TC Energy says its comparable earnings for its latest quarter amounted to C$1.03 per share compared with C$1.00 per share a year earlier.

The average analyst estimate had been for a profit of 95 cents per share, according to LSEG Data & Analytics.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:TRP)

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BCE reports Q3 loss on asset impairment charge, cuts revenue guidance

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BCE Inc. reported a loss in its latest quarter as it recorded $2.11 billion in asset impairment charges, mainly related to Bell Media’s TV and radio properties.

The company says its net loss attributable to common shareholders amounted to $1.24 billion or $1.36 per share for the quarter ended Sept. 30 compared with a profit of $640 million or 70 cents per share a year earlier.

On an adjusted basis, BCE says it earned 75 cents per share in its latest quarter compared with an adjusted profit of 81 cents per share in the same quarter last year.

“Bell’s results for the third quarter demonstrate that we are disciplined in our pursuit of profitable growth in an intensely competitive environment,” BCE chief executive Mirko Bibic said in a statement.

“Our focus this quarter, and throughout 2024, has been to attract higher-margin subscribers and reduce costs to help offset short-term revenue impacts from sustained competitive pricing pressures, slow economic growth and a media advertising market that is in transition.”

Operating revenue for the quarter totalled $5.97 billion, down from $6.08 billion in its third quarter of 2023.

BCE also said it now expects its revenue for 2024 to fall about 1.5 per cent compared with earlier guidance for an increase of zero to four per cent.

The company says the change comes as it faces lower-than-anticipated wireless product revenue and sustained pressure on wireless prices.

BCE added 33,111 net postpaid mobile phone subscribers, down 76.8 per cent from the same period last year, which was the company’s second-best performance on the metric since 2010.

It says the drop was driven by higher customer churn — a measure of subscribers who cancelled their service — amid greater competitive activity and promotional offer intensity. BCE’s monthly churn rate for the category was 1.28 per cent, up from 1.1 per cent during its previous third quarter.

The company also saw 11.6 per cent fewer gross subscriber activations “due to more targeted promotional offers and mobile device discounting compared to last year.”

Bell’s wireless mobile phone average revenue per user was $58.26, down 3.4 per cent from $60.28 in the third quarter of the prior year.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 7, 2024.

Companies in this story: (TSX:BCE)

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