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CONCACAF World Cup qualifying odds, predictions, picks: Canada nears clinching while pressure is up for U.S., Mexico – The Athletic

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Let’s all embrace our new Canadian overlords, which have somehow won five straight matches in World Cup qualifying. Canada’s 2-0 win against the U.S. men’s national team on Sunday was a humbling result for the Americans. It also has Canada four points clear at the top of the table with four matches left.

Canada can clinch on Wednesday, when the final matches of this international window will take place. It would take some unlikely results, but it is possible. Canada needs to win, Costa Rica to fail to win, a US loss at home to Honduras and Mexico to beat Panama.

Pressure is a bit higher on the USMNT and Mexico which look to bounce back from disappointing results. Both are still in a good spot, but another slip up would make things very interesting in the final window in March.

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Let’s see if our pickers have finally embraced Canada as a dominant force in CONCACAF or if they still are skeptics.


Jamaica (+180) vs. Costa Rica (+155); Draw +210

Jamaica 1-5-4, 7 points; Costa Rica 3-3-4, 13 points

Writer Pick
Matt Pentz
Costa Rica
Jeff Rueter
Dan Santaromita
Costa Rica
Andrew DeWitt
Costa Rica

Costa Rica’s resurgence in qualifying is the only thing keeping the top four from feeling secure about their places. Getting a home win against Panama and a point at Mexico in this window has kept the Ticos in the race. Costa Rica was outplayed by Mexico, allowing 25 shots, but just one on target in a scoreless draw at Estadio Azteca. With Panama going to Azteca on Wednesday, it’s reasonable to think Costa Rica could get within a point of fourth place.

Jamaica led in Panama on Sunday, but an own goal a few minutes before halftime broke the dam and Panama added two more goals in the second half of a 3-2 win. The Reggae Boyz are on life support. A loss eliminates Jamaica from World Cup contention.


USA (-550) vs. Honduras (+1600); Draw +550

USA 5-2-3, 18 points; Honduras 0-7-3, 3 points

Writer Pick
Matt Pentz
Jeff Rueter
Dan Santaromita
Andrew DeWitt

The American fanbase is probably not in a good mood after being on the other end of a 2-0 scoreline on Sunday. The comparisons to the famous dos a cero scores against Mexico are unavoidable in so many ways. In many of those American triumphs, Mexico was the more talented and, even in some cases, the more dominant team in possession and territory. Yet, the Americans found a way to win by being better in front of both goals.

On Sunday, the Americans were the team with more possession and the ball around Canada’s box more often. However, Canada took advantage of a series of mistakes to score the first goal and avoided major trouble for the most part in its own box despite the Americans sniffing around the area for much of the match.

The good news for the USMNT is it is still in second place in the table and gets to host Honduras in St. Paul, Minn. Honduras is dead last, freshly eliminated, winless in qualifying and has lost five straight qualifiers. The Americans are the biggest favorite of Wednesday’s matches, and deservedly so.

Midfielder Tyler Adams and defender Chris Richards are both out with injuries for this match. It’s also going to be extremely cold.


El Salvador (+320) vs. Canada (-115); Draw +230

El Salvador 2-5-3, 9 points; Canada 6-0-4, 22 points

Writer Pick
Matt Pentz
Jeff Rueter
Dan Santaromita
Andrew DeWitt

People who followed CONCACAF closely enough expected Canada to make the 2022 World Cup, but few would have expected Canada to be the top team in qualifying. Not only is Canada the last remaining undefeated team, but everyone else in the region has at least two losses. Canada got eight points against Mexico and the US in qualifiers, something that has never been done before. The remaining road for Canada isn’t that easy with just one home match left, but a win here would put Canada on the verge of clinching a spot, even without help from the other matches.

El Salvador picked up a 2-0 win at Honduras on Sunday, but is still on the brink of elimination. La Selecta can’t quite get eliminated, but there is no room for error left.


Mexico (-300) vs. Panama (+1050); Draw +375

Mexico 5-2-3, 18 points; Panama 5-3-2, 17 points

Writer Pick
Matt Pentz
Jeff Rueter
Dan Santaromita
Andrew DeWitt

This is the biggest game of the day. Panama’s win against Jamaica pulled Los Canaleros to within a point of the USMNT and El Tri. After Mexico failed to beat Costa Rica despite producing 25 shots, El Tri is under a lot of pressure for this match. The odds say a Panama win is very unlikely, but it would cause a full-on panic among El Tri supporters.

Raul Jimenez is at training for Mexico after missing the previous two qualifiers due to an injury. His return would be huge after the finishing display against Costa Rica.


Picks records

Correct results Matches picked
Matt Pentz
Jeff Rueter
Dan Santaromita
Andrew DeWitt

(Photo of Cyle Larin and Richie Laryea: Vaughn Ridley / Getty Images; The Athletic may receive an affiliate commission if you open an account with BetMGM through links contained in the above article.)

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Dan Santaromita is the associate editor of sports betting for The Athletic. Dan previously wrote for NBC Sports Chicago and ProSoccerUSA. He attended the University of Missouri and is from Chicago. Follow Dan on Twitter @TheDanSanto.

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Need to Know: Bruins at Maple Leafs | Game 3 | Boston Bruins – NHL.com

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Familiar Territory

James van Riemsdyk has played his fair share of playoff contests here in Toronto – but all of them have come in blue and white. On Wednesday night, he would be on the other side for the first time if he indeed makes his Bruins postseason debut, which appeared to be a strong possibility based on the Black & Gold’s morning skate.

“It’s always special to play in this building,” said van Riemsdyk, who played in 20 postseason games with Toronto, including nine at Scotiabank Arena. “In this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun. This time of year is always amazing, no matter where you’re at – if you’re at a 500-seat arena or a rink with all the tradition and history like this. It’s always fun and always a great opportunity to get in there.”

van Riemsdyk was a healthy scratch for the first two games of this series, following a trend across the second half of the regular season, during which he sat out several games.

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“Playoff time of year is always the best time of year,” said van Riemsdyk, who has 20 goals and 31 points in 71 career playoff games between Philadelphia and Toronto. “Obviously, in this rivalry, it’s always a lot of fun – two fun buildings to play in. You cherish every opportunity you get.

“This time of year, you learn that along the way, it’s all about the team. Whatever the team’s asking you to do, that’s always got to be your mindset and approach…you stay at it every day and just take it one day at a time.”

Montgomery said that if van Riemsdyk does re-enter the lineup, he’ll be looking for the veteran winger to help the Bruins’ offensive game. He also complimented van Riemsdyk’s professionalism throughout a trying second half.

“I guess getting his stick on more pucks,” Montgomery said on what he wants to see from van Riemsdyk. “We’ve talked about it a lot of times internally. Him and [Kevin] Shattenkirk have been great. They’re true pros. Every day come to work, come to get better. It’s not an easy situation, but he’s been great.”

van Riemsdyk concurred with his coach’s sentiments about helping Boston’s offensive attack, saying that he’ll be aiming to be around the net as much as possible.

“I think you’ve got to stay true to who you are as a player and play with good details and manage the game well and play to your strengths as a player,” he said. “This time of year, being around the net is always an important trait. You see all the goals being scored, it’s all within 5-10 feet of the net. That’s an area that I pride myself on, so going to be doing my best to get there and have an impact there.”

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NHL teams, take note: Alexandar Georgiev is proof that anything can happen in the playoffs

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It’s hard to say when, exactly, Alexandar Georgiev truly began to win some hearts and change some minds on Tuesday night.

Maybe it was in the back half of the second period; that was when the Colorado Avalanche, for the first time in their first-round Stanley Cup playoff series against the Winnipeg Jets, actually managed to hold a lead for more than, oh, two minutes or thereabouts. Maybe it was when the Avs walked into the locker room up 4-2 with 20 minutes to play.

Maybe it was midway through the third, when a series of saves by the Avalanche’s beleaguered starting goaltender helped preserve their two-goal buffer. Maybe it was when the buzzer sounded after their 5-2 win. Maybe it didn’t happen until the Avs made it into their locker room at Canada Life Centre, tied 1-1 with the Jets and headed for Denver.

At some point, though, it should’ve happened. If you were watching, you should’ve realized that Colorado — after a 7-6 Game 1 loss that had us all talking not just about all those goals, but at least one of the guys who’d allowed them — had squared things up, thanks in part to … well, that same guy.

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Georgiev, indeed, was the story of Game 2, stopping 28 of 30 shots, improving as the game progressed and providing a lesson on how quickly things can change in the playoffs — series to series, game to game, period to period, moment to moment. The narrative doesn’t always hold. Facts don’t always cooperate. Alexandar Georgiev, for one night and counting, was not a problem for the Colorado Avalanche. He was, in direct opposition to the way he played in Game 1, a solution. How could we view him as anything else?

He had a few big-moment saves, and most of them came midway through the third period with his team up 4-2. There he was with 12:44 remaining, stopping a puck that had awkwardly rolled off Nino Niederreiter’s stick; two missed posts by the Avs at the other end had helped spring Niederreiter for a breakaway. Game 1 Georgiev doesn’t make that save.

There he was, stopping Nikolaj Ehlers from the circle a few minutes later. There wasn’t an Avs defender within five feet, and there was nothing awkward about the puck Ehlers fired at his shoulder. Game 1 Georgiev gets scored on twice.

(That one might’ve been poetic justice. It was Ehlers who’d put the first puck of the night on Georgiev — a chip from center ice that he stopped, and that the crowd in Winnipeg greeted with the ol’ mock cheer. Whoops.)

By the end of it all, Georgiev had stared down Connor Hellebuyck and won, saving nearly 0.5 goals more than expected according to Natural Stat Trick, giving the Avalanche precisely what they needed and looking almost nothing like the guy we’d seen a couple days before. Conventional wisdom coming into this series was twofold: That the Avs have firepower, high-end talent and an overall edge — slight as it may be — on Winnipeg, and that Georgiev is shaky enough to nuke the whole thing.

That wasn’t without merit, either. Georgiev’s .897 save percentage in the regular season was six percentage points below the league average, and he hadn’t broken even in expected goals allowed (minus-0.21). He’d been even worse down the stretch, putting up an .856 save percentage in his final eight appearances, and worse still in Game 1, allowing seven goals on 23 shots and more than five goals more than expected. That’s not bad; that’s an oil spill. Writing him off would’ve been understandable. Writing off Jared Bednar for rolling him out there in Game 2 would’ve been understandable. Writing the Avs off — for all of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar’s greatness — would’ve been understandable.

It just wouldn’t have been correct.

The fact that this all went down now, four days into a two-month ordeal, is a gift — because the postseason thus far has been short on surprises, almost as a rule. The Rangers and Oilers are overwhelming the Capitals and Kings. The Hurricanes are halfway done with the Islanders. The Canucks are struggling with the Predators. PanthersLightning is tight, but one team is clearly better than the other. BruinsMaple Leafs is a close matchup featuring psychic baggage that we don’t have time to unpack. In Golden KnightsStars, Mark Stone came back and scored a huge goal.

None of that should shock you. None of that should make you blink.

Georgiev being good enough for Colorado, though? After what we saw in Game 1? Strange, surprising and completely true. For now.

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"Laugh it off": Evander Kane says Oilers won’t take the bait against Kings | Offside

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The LA Kings tried every trick in the book to get the Edmonton Oilers off their game last night.

Hacks after the whistle, punches to the face, and interference with line changes were just some of the things that the Oilers had to endure, and throughout it all, there was not an ounce of retaliation.

All that badgering by the Kings resulted in at least two penalties against them and fuelled a red-hot Oilers power play that made them pay with three goals on four chances. That was by design for Edmonton, who knew that LA was going to try to pester them as much as they could.

That may have worked on past Oilers teams, but not this one.

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“We’ve been in a series now for the third year in a row with these guys,” Kane said after practice this morning. “We know them, they know us… it’s one of those things where maybe it makes it a little easier to kind of laugh it off, walk away, or take a shot.

“That type of stuff isn’t gonna affect us.”

Once upon a time, this type of play would get under the Oilers’ skin and result in retaliatory penalties. Yet, with a few hard-knock lessons handed down to them in the past few seasons, it seems like the team is as determined as ever to cut the extracurriculars and focus on getting revenge on the scoreboard.

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, the longest-tenured player on this Oilers team, had to keep his emotions in check with Kings defender Vladislav Gavrikov, who punched him in the face early in the game. The easy reaction would be to punch back, but the veteran Nugen-Hopkins took his licks and wound up scoring later in the game.

“It’s going to be physical, the emotions are high, and there’s probably going to be some stuff after the whistle,” Nugent-Hopkins told reporters this morning. “I think it’s important to stay poised out there and not retaliate and just play through the whistles and let the other stuff just kind of happen.”

Oilers head coach Kris Knoblauch also noticed his team’s discipline. Playoff hockey is full of emotion, and keeping those in check to focus on the larger goal is difficult. He was happy with how his team set the tone.

“It’s not necessarily easy to do,” Knoblauch said. “You get punched in the face and sometimes the referees feel it’s enough to call a penalty, sometimes it’s not… You just have to take them, and sometimes, you get rewarded with the power play.

“I liked our guy’s response and we want to be sticking up for each other, we want to have that pack mentality, but it’s really important that we’re not the ones taking that extra penalty.”

There is no doubt that the Kings will continue to poke and prod at the Oilers as the series continues. Keeping those retaliations in check will only get more difficult, but if the team can continue to succeed on the scoreboard, it could get easier.

 

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