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Condo prices in Vancouver area expected to drop: real estate analyst

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VANCOUVER (NEWS 1130) — Now isn’t the time to buy real estate if someone is willing to wait for a better deal, according to a local analyst who predicts condo prices in the Vancouver area are set to decline for years.

Eitel Insights founder Dane Eitel says it’s not the time to try to catch a falling knife, or rather the longer someone holds on to a property they can’t afford, the harder it will be to get rid of it.

He’s advising buyers who can afford to wait for a better price to hold off until at least next year since “need-based selling” will be coming into the market in 2020. He says many investors facing hardship because of the pandemic are also feeling mounting pressure to sell.

“So, I would definitely hold off purchasing a condo. You could really almost sell your condo property right now and go away for a long time, come back and you’ll see that similar type property at extremely lower values.”

The average price for a condo is more than $660,000, but he says that’s going to change.

“For the condo market, January 2018 was the peak at $750,000. Currently, we’re down 12 per cent from that. We’re right at $660,000 for roughly six months in a row in the condo market average sale price,” Eitel explains.

Within two years, he says that price should fall to $525,000 in a few yeas, and heavily-mortgaged owners may soon be forced to sell.

“There are buildings that have been completed and they’re roughly 60 per cent available –30 per cent for sale, 30 per cent for rent– so, all these investors that purchased are going to be put in a tough place and you’ll see a continuation of increased inventory,” Eitel says.

He adds as of April, nearly 4000 condos are listed for sale across the Lower Mainland, but just under 400 sold.

However, Eitel also says the situation is not as bad for single-detached homes where the average price in that market could drop below $1.4-million dollars, down from more than $1.6-million it is now.

 

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Mortgage rule changes will help spark demand, but supply is ‘core’ issue: economist

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TORONTO – One expert predicts Ottawa‘s changes to mortgage rules will help spur demand among potential homebuyers but says policies aimed at driving new supply are needed to address the “core issues” facing the market.

The federal government’s changes, set to come into force mid-December, include a higher price cap for insured mortgages to allow more people to qualify for a mortgage with less than a 20 per cent down payment.

The government will also expand its 30-year mortgage amortization to include first-time homebuyers buying any type of home, as well as anybody buying a newly built home.

CIBC Capital Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal calls it a “significant” move likely to accelerate the recovery of the housing market, a process already underway as interest rates have begun to fall.

However, he says in a note that policymakers should aim to “prevent that from becoming too much of a good thing” through policies geared toward the supply side.

Tal says the main issue is the lack of supply available to respond to Canada’s rapidly increasing population, particularly in major cities.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 17,2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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National housing market in ‘holding pattern’ as buyers patient for lower rates: CREA

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OTTAWA – The Canadian Real Estate Association says the number of homes sold in August fell compared with a year ago as the market remained largely stuck in a holding pattern despite borrowing costs beginning to come down.

The association says the number of homes sold in August fell 2.1 per cent compared with the same month last year.

On a seasonally adjusted month-over-month basis, national home sales edged up 1.3 per cent from July.

CREA senior economist Shaun Cathcart says that with forecasts of lower interest rates throughout the rest of this year and into 2025, “it makes sense that prospective buyers might continue to hold off for improved affordability, especially since prices are still well behaved in most of the country.”

The national average sale price for August amounted to $649,100, a 0.1 per cent increase compared with a year earlier.

The number of newly listed properties was up 1.1 per cent month-over-month.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 16, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Two Quebec real estate brokers suspended for using fake bids to drive up prices

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MONTREAL – Two Quebec real estate brokers are facing fines and years-long suspensions for submitting bogus offers on homes to drive up prices during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Christine Girouard has been suspended for 14 years and her business partner, Jonathan Dauphinais-Fortin, has been suspended for nine years after Quebec’s authority of real estate brokerage found they used fake bids to get buyers to raise their offers.

Girouard is a well-known broker who previously starred on a Quebec reality show that follows top real estate agents in the province.

She is facing a fine of $50,000, while Dauphinais-Fortin has been fined $10,000.

The two brokers were suspended in May 2023 after La Presse published an article about their practices.

One buyer ended up paying $40,000 more than his initial offer in 2022 after Girouard and Dauphinais-Fortin concocted a second bid on the house he wanted to buy.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 11, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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