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Conservatives lead Liberals by 7 points in latest Nanos polling

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The federal Conservatives have gained a seven-point lead over the Liberals in the latest weekly ballot tracking by Nanos Research.

According to 1,084 random interviews conducted during the week ending Jan. 13, Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives would capture 35.6 per cent of the vote if an election were held today, while the Liberals would get 28.3 per cent, the NDP 20.7 per cent, the Bloc 7.4 per cent, the Green Party 5.8 per cent and the People’s Party 2.1 per cent.

The Conservative lead – which has been creeping up steadily since December — is now outside the margin of error, and with the NDP increasing their share of the ballot, the Liberals are having their support chipped away at, both sides. In an interview on CTV News’ Trend Line podcast, Nanos Research founder Nik Nanos called the numbers “very grim” for the Liberals.

“This is the worst way for the Liberals to start off their year, because they’re basically back on their heels, and it looks like a significant number of Canadians are looking at the Conservatives,” Nanos told host Michael Stittle on Wednesday.

“I think what the Liberals have to worry about is a one-two-punch, basically getting squeezed by the Conservatives on the one side, the New Democrats on the other, and vote splits that will be working against the Liberals.”

IS HEALTH CRISIS TESTING AGREEMENT WITH NDP?

Nanos said heading into the 2023 parliamentary season, Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government might have its supply-and-confidence deal with the NDP tested, as the Liberals look to forge health-care funding agreements with the provinces while balancing outstanding health commitments on dental and pharmacare as part of the parliamentary pact.

NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh is calling on the Liberals to make protecting the universal public system a condition in any coming deal with the provinces to increase the Canada Health Transfer. Though, Singh has yet to say whether he’d be willing to pull out of the agreement that’s poised to see the Liberals stay in power until 2025 over the issue.

According to the latest Nanos issue tracking, health care is the top unprompted national issue of concern for Canadians, followed by inflation, jobs and economy and the environment. Nanos pointed out that health care has traditionally been a strong policy area for the NDP.

“The New Democrats have a big interest in protecting public health care,” he said.

“So expect Singh to put the political vice grips on the Liberals to protect and enhance public health care and access to public health care. I think that the initial battle lines might actually be between the New Democrats and the Liberals on this issue.”

BIDEN’S VISIT PRESENTS OPPORTUNITY

He said the Liberals may also want to use the 2023 federal budget as an opportunity to prove they have a strong vision for their next mandate and that they’re not just coasting through this one. Following the upcoming March visit by U.S. President Joe Biden to Canada, Nanos said the government would be smart to announce what they accomplished in meetings with the Biden administration.

“It’s not enough just to say, ‘Oh, we’re friends, we like each other, we have a great relationship,'” he said. “What the Liberals have to do, ideally, is put something in the window in terms of something specific being accomplished in the bi-national relationship.”

TRUDEAU STILL PREFERRED PM

Another area where Nanos said the Liberals might find a foothold is public perception of the federal leaders. According to the research firm’s latest Preferred PM numbers, while the Conservative party is gaining favour among those surveyed, its leader Poilievre, is statistically tied with Trudeau.

Nanos tracking has Trudeau as the preferred choice for prime minister at 30 per cent of Canadians, followed by Poilievre at 27.5 per cent, Singh at 16.2 per cent, Elizabeth May at 4.2 per cent and Maxime Bernier at two per cent. Sixteen per cent of Canadians were unsure whom they preferred.

For this reason, he said the Liberals may choose to concentrate on undermining Poilievre’s “brand” this year, ahead of the 2025 election.

“(Poilievre) and his brand will be the main focus of a lot of the political dialogue in 2023 as he tries to build up his brand and the Liberals try to tear him down,” he said.

“I would expect that the Liberals are probably going to come out swinging through 2023, because they’ve got to change the trend line.”

METHODOLOGY

Each week, Nanos measures the political pulse of Canadian voters through hundreds of telephone surveys. The data is based on random interviews with 1,000 Canadian consumers (recruited by RDD land- and cell-line sample), using a four-week rolling average of 250 respondents each week, 18 years of age and over. The random sample of 1,000 respondents may be weighted using the latest census information for Canada. The interviews are compiled into a four-week rolling average of 1,000 interviews where each week, the oldest group of 250 interviews is dropped and a new group of 250 interviews is added.

A random survey of 1,000 respondents in Canada is accurate 3.1 percentage points, plus or minus, 19 times out of 20.

More on Nanos’ political and issue tracking methodology https://nanos.co/dataportal/nanos-tracking-methodology/

– With files from Senior Digital Parliamentary Reporter Rachel Aiello

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Political parties cool to idea of new federal regulations for nomination contests

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OTTAWA – Several federal political parties are expressing reservations about the prospect of fresh regulations to prevent foreign meddlers from tainting their candidate nomination processes.

Elections Canada has suggested possible changes to safeguard nominations, including barring non-citizens from helping choose candidates, requiring parties to publish contest rules and explicitly outlawing behaviour such as voting more than once.

However, representatives of the Bloc Québécois, Green Party and NDP have told a federal commission of inquiry into foreign interference that such changes may be unwelcome, difficult to implement or counterproductive.

The Canada Elections Act currently provides for limited regulation of federal nomination races and contestants.

For instance, only contestants who accept $1,000 in contributions or incur $1,000 in expenses have to file a financial return. In addition, the act does not include specific obligations concerning candidacy, voting, counting or results reporting other than the identity of the successful nominee.

A report released in June by the National Security and Intelligence Committee of Parliamentarians expressed concern about how easily foreign actors can take advantage of loopholes and vulnerabilities to support preferred candidates.

Lucy Watson, national director of the NDP, told the inquiry Thursday she had concerns about the way in which new legislation would interact with the internal decision-making of the party.

“We are very proud of the fact that our members play such a significant role in shaping the internal policies and procedures and infrastructure of the party, and I would not want to see that lost,” she said.

“There are guidelines, there are best practices that we would welcome, but if we were to talk about legal requirements and legislation, that’s something I would have to take away and put further thought into, and have discussions with folks who are integral to the party’s governance.”

In an August interview with the commission of inquiry, Bloc Québécois executive director Mathieu Desquilbet said the party would be opposed to any external body monitoring nomination and leadership contest rules.

A summary tabled Thursday says Desquilbet expressed doubts about the appropriateness of requiring nomination candidates to file a full financial report with Elections Canada, saying the agency’s existing regulatory framework and the Bloc’s internal rules on the matter are sufficient.

Green Party representatives Jon Irwin and Robin Marty told the inquiry in an August interview it would not be realistic for an external body, like Elections Canada, to administer nomination or leadership contests as the resources required would exceed the federal agency’s capacity.

A summary of the interview says Irwin and Marty “also did not believe that rules violations could effectively be investigated by an external body like the Office of the Commissioner of Canada Elections.”

“The types of complaints that get raised during nomination contests can be highly personal, politically driven, and could overwhelm an external body.”

Marty, national campaign director for the party, told the inquiry Thursday that more reporting requirements would also place an administrative burden on volunteers and riding workers.

In addition, he said that disclosing the vote tally of a nomination contest could actually help foreign meddlers by flagging the precise number of ballots needed for a candidate to be chosen.

Irwin, interim executive director of the Greens, said the ideal tactic for a foreign country would be working to get someone in a “position of power” within a Canadian political party.

He said “the bad guys are always a step ahead” when it comes to meddling in the Canadian political process.

In May, David Vigneault, director of the Canadian Security Intelligence Service at the time, said it was very clear from the design of popular social media app TikTok that data gleaned from its users is available to the Chinese government.

A December 2022 CSIS memo tabled at the inquiry Thursday said TikTok “has the potential to be exploited” by Beijing to “bolster its influence and power overseas, including in Canada.”

Asked about the app, Marty told the inquiry the Greens would benefit from more “direction and guidance,” given the party’s lack of resources to address such things.

Representatives of the Liberal and Conservative parties are slated to appear at the inquiry Friday, while chief electoral officer Stéphane Perrault is to testify at a later date.

After her party representatives appeared Thursday, Green Leader Elizabeth May told reporters it was important for all party leaders to work together to come up with acceptable rules.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

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New Brunswick election candidate profile: Green Party Leader David Coon

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FREDERICTON – A look at David Coon, leader of the Green Party of New Brunswick:

Born: Oct. 28, 1956.

Early years: Born in Toronto and raised in Montreal, he spent about three decades as an environmental advocate.

Education: A trained biologist, he graduated with a bachelor of science from McGill University in Montreal in 1978.

Family: He and his wife Janice Harvey have two daughters, Caroline and Laura.

Before politics: Worked as an environmental educator, organizer, activist and manager for 33 years, mainly with the Conservation Council of New Brunswick.

Politics: Joined the Green Party of Canada in May 2006 and was elected leader of the New Brunswick Green Party in September 2012. Won a seat in the legislature in 2014 — a first for the province’s Greens.

Quote: “It was despicable. He’s clearly decided to take the low road in this campaign, to adopt some Trump-lite fearmongering.” — David Coon on Sept. 12, 2024, reacting to Blaine Higgs’s claim that the federal government had decided to send 4,600 asylum seekers to New Brunswick.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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New Brunswick election profile: Progressive Conservative Leader Blaine Higgs

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FREDERICTON – A look at Blaine Higgs, leader of the Progressive Conservative Party of New Brunswick.

Born: March 1, 1954.

Early years: The son of a customs officer, he grew up in Forest City, N.B., near the Canada-U.S. border.

Education: Graduated from the University of New Brunswick with a degree in mechanical engineering in 1977.

Family: Married his high-school sweetheart, Marcia, and settled in Saint John, N.B., where they had four daughters: Lindsey, Laura, Sarah and Rachel.

Before politics: Hired by Irving Oil a week after he graduated from university and was eventually promoted to director of distribution. Worked for 33 years at the company.

Politics: Elected to the legislature in 2010 and later served as finance minister under former Progressive Conservative Premier David Alward. Elected Tory leader in 2016 and has been premier since 2018.

Quote: “I’ve always felt parents should play the main role in raising children. No one is denying gender diversity is real. But we need to figure out how to manage it.” — Blaine Higgs in a year-end interview in 2023, explaining changes to school policies about gender identity.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 19, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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