Inflation in Canada slowed to 3.1% in October, just above the central bank’s target range. Here is what economists say
Inflation in Canada slowed to 3.1 per cent year over year in October from 3.8 per cent the month before, leading some economists to predict an interest rate cut by the Bank of Canada as early as next spring.
The deceleration was mainly driven by gas prices, which were down 7.8 per cent from last October, Statistics Canada said on Nov. 21. Prices for food also increased at a slower pace, rising 5.4 per cent from a year ago, compared with an increase of 5.8 per cent in September.
On a monthly basis, CPI rose 0.1 per cent in October, following a 0.1 per cent decline in September, said Statistics Canada. Seasonally adjusted, CPI fell 0.1 per cent, which BMO chief economist Douglas Porter says is “the first such decline since the opening months of the pandemic in 2020.”
“Importantly, most of the major core measures are now within or very close to the Bank of Canada’s comfort zone,” said Porter, adding the report wasn’t all good news as services inflation remains “sticky.”
Services inflation quickened to 4.6 per cent year over year from 3.9 per cent in September as prices rose for travel tours, rent and property taxes and other special charges. Rents rose 8.2 per cent from last year and municipal taxes increased 4.9 per cent, those most since 1992, said TD Economics.
This latest reading places headline CPI within striking distance of the Bank of Canada’s target range of one to three per cent.
Stephen Brown of Capital Economics predicts that inflation will drop below three per cent this month as gasoline prices continue to fall and expects it to hit the Bank’s target of two per cent by the third quarter of 2024.
Here’s what economists say about the inflation numbers, what it means for the Bank of Canada and where interest rates go from here.
“While no one expected inflation to go quietly into the night, this is a generally good news step in the right direction.
“Overall, today’s result drives home the point that there is no need for further BoC tightening, especially with the economy already struggling to grow at all and underlying inflation calming. However, before the Bank can even begin seriously considering rate relief, we’ll need to see more evidence that services inflation is also moderating — that could be at least another six months down the road.”
“Looking ahead, price pressures will continue abating. Consumer spending in aggregate has plateaued, even with immigration. On a per capita basis, consumer spending has actually dropped. Households who get hit with higher mortgage payments find themselves cutting back on discretionary spending. And this is just the beginning: more mortgage terms are up for renewal at higher rates in the upcoming months.
“The CPI report is the latest sign of a cooling economy that should make the Bank of Canada feel comfortable keeping the policy rate unchanged at the December announcement. At this point, the Bank can sit back and let the forces of monetary policy work its way through the economy, keeping inflation near three per cent.”
“Overall, although the rise in services prices in this morning’s report is not what the Bank would have liked to see, the overall trend in price pressures remains downward as signs of an economic slowdown persist.”
“There was good news all round in the October CPI report, with the overall CPI falling in month-on-month seasonally adjusted terms for the first time since May 2020, and the average three-month annualized change in CPI-trim and CPI-median falling to three per cent, the lowest since early 2021. With gasoline prices falling further this month and the economy already seemingly in recession, we expect headline inflation to fall to two per cent by the third quarter of next year.”
“In conjunction with data showing slack building within the labour market and growth data suggesting the economy is in a shallow recession, today’s constructive inflation report has completely undermined the BoC’s hawkish bias. This is yet another confirmatory point for our view that the BoC, having led the Fed during the hiking cycle, will once again be the pace setter in the 2024 easing cycle, with a cut likely as early as April.”
Details in today’s inflation report showed further moderation in domestic price pressures in Canada, extending a downside surprise in price growth in September. Not only were the readings themselves lower among many components, the scope of inflation has also continued to narrow.
“Ongoing signs of deterioration in consumer spending and labour market conditions support our outlook for inflation to keep moderating in the quarters ahead. We continue to expect the BoC is done with rate hikes, and for them to cautiously pivot to cuts over the latter half of 2024.”
“The continued deceleration in headline and underlying measures of inflation practically eliminated the probability of another rate increase. Nevertheless, we believe it may still be too early for the BoC to officially declare victory and signal that it is no longer considering a rate hike, especially considering the broadness of inflation and continued strong wage growth. Looking ahead, the BoC is unlikely to contemplate rate cuts until inflation has been brought sustainably below three per cent. This is unlikely to happen until the spring.”
“It is encouraging to see another leg down in CPI inflation in October, but the Bank of Canada will likely need to see further progress on core inflation before it feels confident that inflation is headed back to the two per cent target. There is little doubt that Canada’s economy has cooled in recent months, but the chill in inflation that should follow is proving slow to show up. We expect weaker demand in the economy will ultimately dampen price pressures, but given tightness in the labour market, it will take time.”
“October’s rapid downshift in inflation adds to a drumbeat of weaker economic data that should keep the Bank of Canada on the sideline at its Dec. 6 meeting. Economic data has stagnated. Gross domestic product is trending flat, with per capita GDP in outright decline, and a cooling labour market, albeit with more robust wage growth. Conditions are expected to worsen going forward as past Bank of Canada hikes continue to impact activity and mortgage renewals through 2024 further lead consumers and businesses to retrench. We expect the Bank of Canada to cut rates late in the second quarter of 2024 provided inflation continues to ease and wage growth abates.”
EDMONTON – Canada’s Employment Minister Randy Boissonnault is apologizing after shifting claims about his Indigenous identity came under scrutiny.
The Liberal member of Parliament said at an unrelated announcement in Edmonton on Friday that he’s sorry he wasn’t as clear as he could have been “with everything that I know now.”
“I apologize that I wasn’t as clear as I could have been about who I am and my family’s history,” he said, adding that he’s still learning about his family’s heritage “in real time.”
Boissonnault has previously referred to himself as “non-status adopted Cree” and said his great-grandmother was a “full-blooded Cree woman.”
He said Friday he’ll have to confirm his great-grandmother’s status, but his mother and brother are citizens of the Métis Nation of Alberta.
“I apologize if that particular way of referring to myself — I apologize that it was inaccurate.”
It comes after the National Post reported that a company co-owned by Boissonnault unsuccessfully bid on two federal contracts in 2020 while identifying itself as Indigenous and Aboriginal-owned.
The government has pledged to award five per cent of its procurement contracts to Indigenous-owned businesses.
Since that story’s publication last week, Boissonnault has said the family he was adopted into has Indigenous ancestry and his adopted mother and brother are status Métis.
Boissonnault said Friday he never claimed any Indigenous status to his business partner, Stephen Anderson.
“Mr. Anderson should never have claimed that on the particular contract application, and no contract was awarded,” he said.
Boissonnault has previously sat as a member of the Liberal Indigenous Caucus, but he said he joined it as an ally representing many Indigenous people in his community.
When asked about the Liberals’ past claims about his Indigenous identity, he said he corrected the party and asked for the descriptions to be changed as soon as he became aware.
“I never asked the party to refer to me as an Indigenous person. I never clicked any box in any form with the Liberal party. I have never put (an) Indigenous claim to any contract or any application in my entire life,” he said.
The Conservative party has said it wants Boissonnault to testify before the ethics committee so he can “answer truthfully for these serious allegations of fraud.”
“This is even more urgent given the new allegations that his company fraudulently claimed to be Indigenous-owned while applying for government contracts,” said Conservative MP Michael Barrett.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 15, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
The Internet’s most powerful ability is its propensity to spread. This holiday season, amidst the hustle of shopping, party planning, and reflections, let’s use this power to spread joy and generosity. This December, I invite you to transform your social media feeds into a canvas of goodwill, reminding your followers and communities that even small acts of kindness can create waves of joy and inspiration.
Before you dive into creating festive holiday content, it’s crucial to set the stage by updating the aesthetics of your social media profiles to mirror the holiday season. Using Canva (www.canva.com), refresh your banner/cover photo on Facebook, X/Twitter, Instagram, LinkedIn, etc. with holiday-themed images. Change your profile picture to one that captures the festive spirit, such as wearing a Santa hat, standing next to a Christmas tree, or under Christmas lights, or wearing a Christmas sweater.
Once your social media profiles reflect your festive mood, consider the following suggestions to inspire others to get into the holiday spirit.
The 12 Days of Kindness Challenge
The English Christmas carol, “The 12 Days of Christmas,” inspired this suggestion, a “12 Days of Kindness” challenge. Starting 12 days before Christmas, or whenever you want, commit to doing one act of kindness daily. It could be paying for someone’s coffee, leaving a heartfelt note for a neighbour, donating to a local charity, or dropping off baked goods at a senior home. Post pictures of each act on your social media channels with the hashtag #12DaysOfKindness. Encourage your followers and tag your friends to do the same, thereby creating a chain reaction of goodwill that spreads far beyond your immediate circle.
Support Local Charities with a Virtual Fundraiser
Use your social media clout to raise money for a local charity by hosting a virtual fundraiser. Invite your followers and friends to join you in a fun activity, like a virtual trivia night or bake-off. Promote donations to a charity of your choice and share updates on the progress. In addition to building community spirit, promoting local causes demonstrates the power of collective action.
Random Acts of Kindness Bingo
Create a bingo card, which you can use Canva to create, filled with random acts of kindness, such as “compliment a stranger,” “donate clothes,” or “help a neighbour.” Once created, post the card on your social media and invite others to join you in completing the challenges throughout the month. As you check off your squares, share photos or stories of your experiences, tagging friends and followers to keep the momentum going. The visual aspect of a bingo card makes it fun and engaging, encouraging participation.
Gratitude and Kindness Posts
Incorporate gratitude into your kindness initiatives by encouraging your followers to share posts about something they’re thankful for and how they plan to pay it forward. Use a specific hashtag, like #ThankfulAndKind, to unify these posts. As people share their gratitude and commitment to kindness, you’ll create a powerful positivity narrative that inspires others to reflect on their lives and actions.
Acts of Kindness Story Swap
Engage your audience by hosting a ‘kindness story swap.’ Invite your followers to share their stories of kindness—either acts they’ve done or experiences they’ve had. Create a specific day for these stories and use a designated hashtag like #KindnessSwap. By facilitating the sharing of stories and uplifting your followers, you’ll be connecting people and building a sense of community, which is what social media should be used for.
Kindness Challenge Videos
Challenge your followers to create short videos showcasing their acts of kindness. This could include anything from helping a neighbour with groceries to volunteering at a local shelter. Encourage them to tag you and others in their posts using a hashtag like #KindnessChallenge. Sharing video content is an effective way to spread your message while inspiring others to get involved.
Holiday Cards for Seniors
During the holidays, seniors living in retirement homes often feel isolated. Initiate a “Holiday Cards for Seniors” campaign by encouraging your followers to create and send handmade holiday cards to local retirement homes. List several local retirement homes on your social media and encourage your followers to share photos of their card-making. This simple act will not only brighten someone’s day but also foster cross-generational connections.
Kindness knows no boundaries. In addition to spreading joy, social media offers a powerful tool to foster community and encourage acts of kindness. No matter how small, each act of kindness contributes to a larger narrative of compassion, which the world desperately needs more of. Imagine the joy on a senior’s face when they receive a holiday card or the warmth in a neighbour’s heart when they receive a compliment. Creating and hosting these kindness challenges and sharing your acts of kindness experiences—giving and receiving—will enrich your life and strengthen your community.
This December let’s embrace the spirit of kindness—online and offline. Your social media feeds can become a gallery of kindness, with posts and shares illustrating the joys of doing acts of kindness, making this holiday season a time of connection, generosity, and lasting impact.
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Nick Kossovan, a self-described connoisseur of human psychology, writes about what’s
on his mind from Toronto. You can follow Nick on Twitter and Instagram @NKossovan.
HACHINOHE, Japan – Ivanie Blondin helped Canada to a team sprint gold medal before picking up an individual bronze Friday as Canada opened the long-track speedskating season with three medals at the ISU Four Continents championships.
Ottawa’s Blondin combined with Carolina Hiller of Prince George, B.C., and Béatrice Lamarche of Quebec City to win the women’s team sprint in a track record time of one minute 27.87 seconds.
Lamarche used the slingshot technique to launch Blondin into the final lap, which helped the trio maintain their speed. While the move worked, Lamarche said it could be improved.
“The slingshot move felt better yesterday in practice, but it was not at high speed. Maybe we looked smooth, but I personally felt weird and rushed throughout the entire process,” Lamarche said. “I’m excited to try it again during the World Cup in China because I think it can be better.”
South Korea was 1.39 seconds off the pace for silver, while Kazakhstan was 2.49 seconds back of the winners to take bronze.
Later, the 34-year-old Blondin took bronze in the women’s 1,500 metres with a time of 1:57.99.
Japan’s Miho Takagi (1:54.86) and China’s Mei Han (1:56.53) took gold and silver, respectively.
“I feel pretty good about my 1,500,” Blondin said. “I was not able to warm down following the team sprint as we went straight to the medal ceremony. By the time that was over I had to put my skin suit on and get back on the ice.”
“I didn’t have the pop that I normally would — but midway through the race I realized things were going well and my legs were actually feeling pretty decent,” she added. “I was happy with the end time.”
Canada reached the podium for a third time as Anders Johnson of Burnaby, B.C., Laurent Dubreuil of Lévis, Que., and Yankun Zhao of Calgary, Alta., finished third in the men’s team sprint.
The United States (1:19.43) and China (1:19.78) finished ahead of Canada, the defending world champion and world record holder in the discipline.
“I think it was a good race for us,” Johnson said. “It was a new setup for our team today and we executed well and skated well. We’re happy with the result and excited to see what comes in the future.”
The championships continue Saturday with Blondin, Dubreuil, Calgary’s Ted-Jan Bloemen, Valérie Maltais of La Baie, Que., and Ottawa’s Isabelle Weidemann looking to add to Canada’s medal total.
This report by The Canadian Press was first published Nov. 15, 2024.
The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.
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