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Coronavirus bigger risk to U.S. economy than election dispute: Reuters poll – TheChronicleHerald.ca

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By Shrutee Sarkar

BENGALURU (Reuters) – The coronavirus is a bigger risk to the U.S. economy than a prolonged dispute over the presidential election result, according to a Reuters poll that showed the near-term economic recovery was slowing more than previously thought.

With around 11 million COVID-19 cases, the United States is by far the hardest-hit country and while a potential vaccine provides some optimism the outlook remains uncertain, the Nov. 10-16 poll of over 100 economists found.

The recent progress toward COVID-19 vaccines pushed Wall Street shares to a record closing high last week, despite a surge in new cases and jitters over President Donald Trump’s refusal to concede the U.S. election to Joe Biden.

Over 90% of economists, or 53 of 57, said elevated coronavirus cases were the bigger risk to the economy for the remainder of this year rather than further uncertainty surrounding when the election results will be made official.

Asked if their forecasts were based on recent progress of a COVID-19 vaccine, 57 economists who responded to a separate question were almost evenly split, suggesting the tonic for Wall Street sentiment is not yet seen as a full public health and economic turning point. With no prospect for swift new spending support from Congress, the economy, now adrift, may weaken again.

“Fiscal support has largely dried up for now, leaving disposable income lower in the final months of the year. But the largest risk is that the third wave of the coronavirus is likely to worsen with colder temperatures,” said David Mericle, chief U.S. economist at Goldman Sachs.

“Renewed lockdowns in Europe are a reminder that the U.S. also faces significant downside risks this winter.”

It’s been whiplash for the economy this year, plunging into the deepest contraction in at least seven decades of 31.4% in the second quarter to the fastest-ever expected growth of 33.1% last quarter.

Gross domestic product (GDP) was forecast to grow an annualized 3.7% this quarter and 3.0% in Q1, a downgrade from 4.0% and 3.7%, respectively, predicted last month.

Those were the sixth and third consecutive monthly downgrades, respectively.

The range of forecasts, -5.6% to +7.4% for this and next quarter, highlights exceptional uncertainty despite these surveys’ solid track record for accuracy this year.

“We suspect manufacturing, construction and most retail will remain open, but restrictions on other sectors will still come at a huge economic cost with millions of jobs potentially at risk,” said James Knightley, chief international economist at ING.

“We fear the December-January period will be tough on both a human and an economic level with a probable negative GDP print for the first quarter.”

This year, the world’s largest economy was forecast to shrink 3.6%, according to the poll of 102 economists. In 2021 and 2022 the consensus was for growth of 3.8% and 2.9%, respectively.

In the interim, much will depend on public health through the coming winter months.

U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde both say the economy was still in for a tough time even if the development of a potential vaccine was reason for some optimism.

Asked what would happen to U.S.-China trade relations over the coming year, 38 of 56 said they would stay the same. Fifteen said they would improve and three said they would worsen.

“One of the biggest unknowns about the Biden administration is how it will approach China. It is possible tensions will ease, as the president-elect seeks to boost the economic recovery,” said Kevin Loane, senior economist at Fathom Consulting.

“However, it appears equally likely the Biden administration will be more effective in rallying U.S. partners to impose restrictions on their economic links with China, perhaps worsening U.S.-China trade relations as a result.”

(Reporting by Shrutee Sarkar; Additional reporting by Manjul Paul; Polling by Nagamani Lingappa; Editing by Ross Finley and Nick Zieminski)

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Construction wraps on indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs in Vancouver

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VANCOUVER – Supervised injection sites are saving the lives of drug users everyday, but the same support is not being offered to people who inhale illicit drugs, the head of the BC Centre for Excellence in HIV/AIDS says.

Dr. Julio Montaner said the construction of Vancouver’s first indoor supervised site for people who inhale drugs comes as the percentage of people who die from smoking drugs continues to climb.

The location in the Downtown Eastside at the Hope to Health Research and Innovation Centre was unveiled Wednesday after construction was complete, and Montaner said people could start using the specialized rooms in a matter of weeks after final approvals from the city and federal government.

“If we don’t create mechanisms for these individuals to be able to use safely and engage with the medical system, and generate points of entry into the medical system, we will never be able to solve the problem,” he said.

“Now, I’m not here to tell you that we will fix it tomorrow, but denying it or ignoring it, or throw it under the bus, or under the carpet is no way to fix it, so we need to take proactive action.”

Nearly two-thirds of overdose deaths in British Columbia in 2023 came after smoking illicit drugs, yet only 40 per cent of supervised consumption sites in the province offer a safe place to smoke, often outdoors, in a tent.

The centre has been running a supervised injection site for years which sees more than a thousand people monthly and last month resuscitated five people who were overdosing.

The new facilities offer indoor, individual, negative-pressure rooms that allow fresh air to circulate and can clear out smoke in 30 to 60 seconds while users are monitored by trained nurses.

Advocates calling for more supervised inhalation sites have previously said the rules for setting up sites are overly complicated at a time when the province is facing an overdose crisis.

More than 15,000 people have died of overdoses since the public health emergency was declared in B.C. in April 2016.

Kate Salters, a senior researcher at the centre, said they worked with mechanical and chemical engineers to make sure the site is up to code and abidies by the highest standard of occupational health and safety.

“This is just another tool in our tool box to make sure that we’re offering life-saving services to those who are using drugs,” she said.

Montaner acknowledged the process to get the site up and running took “an inordinate amount of time,” but said the centre worked hard to follow all regulations.

“We feel that doing this right, with appropriate scientific background, in a medically supervised environment, etc, etc, allows us to derive the data that ultimately will be sufficiently convincing for not just our leaders, but also the leaders across the country and across the world, to embrace the strategies that we are trying to develop.” he said.

Montaner said building the facility was possible thanks to a single $4-million donation from a longtime supporter.

Construction finished with less than a week before the launch of the next provincial election campaign and within a year of the next federal election.

Montaner said he is concerned about “some of the things that have been said publicly by some of the political leaders in the province and in the country.”

“We want to bring awareness to the people that this is a serious undertaking. This is a very massive investment, and we need to protect it for the benefit of people who are unfortunately drug dependent.” he said.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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N.B. election: Parties’ answers on treaty rights, taxes, Indigenous participation

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FREDERICTON – The six chiefs of the Wolastoqey Nation in New Brunswick distributed a survey on Indigenous issues to political parties ahead of the provincial election, which is scheduled to kick off Thursday. Here are some of the answers from the Progressive Conservative, Liberal and Green parties.

Q: How does your party plan to demonstrate a renewed commitment to recognizing our joint treaty responsibilities and acknowledging that the lands and waters of this territory remain unceded?

Progressive Conservative: The party respectfully disagrees with the assertion that land title has been unceded. This is a legal question that has not been determined by the courts.

Liberal: When we form government, the first conversations the premier-designate will have is with First Nations leaders. We will publicly and explicitly acknowledge your treaty rights, and our joint responsibility as treaty people.

Green: The Green Party acknowledges that New Brunswick is situated on the unceded and unsurrendered territories of the Wolastoqiyik, Mi’kmaq and Peskotomuhkati peoples, covered by the Treaties of Peace and Friendship. Our party is committed to establishing true nation-to-nation relationships with First Nations, grounded in mutual respect and co-operation as the treaties intended.

Q: How does your party propose to approach the issue of provincial tax agreements with First Nations?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick operates in a balanced and fair manner with all organizations, institutions and local governments that represent the citizens of this province, including First Nations. Therefore, we cannot offer tax agreements that do not demonstrate a benefit to all citizens.

Liberal: Recent discussions with First Nations chiefs shed light on the gaps that existed in the previous provincial tax agreements with First Nations. Our party is committed to negotiating and establishing new tax agreements with First Nations that address the local needs and priorities and ensure all parties have a fair deal.

Green: The Green Party is committed to fostering a respectful relationship with First Nations in New Brunswick and strongly opposes Premier Blaine Higgs’s decision to end tax-sharing agreements. We believe reinstating these agreements is crucial for supporting the economic development and job creation in First Nation communities.

Q: How will your party ensure more meaningful participation of Indigenous communities in provincial land use and resource management decision-making?

Progressive Conservative: The government of New Brunswick has invested significant resources in developing a robust duty to consult and engagement process. We are interested in fully involving First Nations in the development of natural resources, including natural gas development. We believe that the development of natural gas is better for the environment — because it allows for the shutdown of coal-fired power plants all over the globe — and it allows for a meaningful step along the path to reconciliation.

Liberal: Our party is focused on building strong relations with First Nations and their representatives based on mutual respect and a nation-to-nation relationship, with a shared understanding of treaty obligations and a recognition of your rights. This includes having First Nations at the table and engaged on all files, including land-use and resource management.

Green: We will develop a new Crown lands management framework with First Nations, focusing on shared management that respects the Peace and Friendship Treaties. We will enhance consultation by developing parameters for meaningful consultation with First Nations that will include a dispute resolution mechanism, so the courts become the last resort, not the default in the face of disagreements.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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Canadian Coast Guard crew member lost at sea off Newfoundland

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ST. JOHN’S, N.L. – A crew member of a Canadian Coast Guard ship has been lost at sea off southern Newfoundland.

The agency said in a release Wednesday that an extensive search and rescue effort for the man was ended Tuesday evening.

He was reported missing on Monday morning when the CCGS Vincent Massey arrived in St. John’s, N.L.

The coast guard says there was an “immediate” search on the vessel for the crew member and when he wasn’t located the sea and air search began.

Wednesday’s announcement said the agency was “devastated to confirm” the crew member had been lost at sea, adding that decisions to end searches are “never taken lightly.”

The coast guard says the employee was last seen on board Sunday evening as the vessel sailed along the northeast coast of Newfoundland.

Spokeswoman Kariane Charron says no other details are being provided at this time and that the RCMP will be investigating the matter as a missing person case.

This report by The Canadian Press was first published Sept. 18, 2024.

The Canadian Press. All rights reserved.

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