2020 was supposed to be the year the Chinese traveler returned in full force thanks to an improving trade backdrop and signs of stabilization in the world’s second largest economy.
Coronavirus and the travel restrictions to and from China have drastically changed those expectations, and the implications for global economies could be significant.
Oxford Economics is now forecasting that the U.S. will experience a loss of 1.6 million visitors from mainland China this year.
That’s a loss for big metropolitan cities like New York City, San Francisco, and Los Angeles that have long benefited from the rise in Chinese tourism over the past decade.
Even with the 4.7% decline in Chinese travel to the states in the first nine months of 2019 due to trade tensions, the Chinese still remain the third largest source of travel for the country.
A volunteer measures a passenger’s body temperature. In light of a coronavirus outbreak in China, Hong Kong district councillors and residents formed makeshift quarantine stations, screening passengers arriving from China, Feb. 4, 2020.
Willie Siau | SOPA Images | LightRocket | Getty Images
The Chinese are also the biggest spenders, on average shelling out $6,500, compared to the $4,000 spent by other foreign tourists in the U.S.
Without these high-spending Chinese tourists, international governments in South Korea, Japan, and Thailand are bracing for a sharp drop in demand for tours, lodging, food and beverage.
“Visitor numbers from China have seen a massive surge over the past decade or so and now account for the largest number of inbound tourists in most countries across the [Asia] region,” said Alex Holmes, chief economist at Capital Economics, in an interview with CNBC.
In the past two years, emerging economies in Asia have invested in offering customized tours and lodging options for Chinese travelers. Hilton, Marriott and Hyatt have built up new properties to accommodate the surge in demand.
Holmes points to Thailand, which saw 10.5 million Chinese tourists in 2018, a 13-fold increase from 2008. And spending by tourists in Thailand is equivalent to roughly 11% of the country’s GDP.
Other countries in Asia that are highly dependent on tourist spend include Cambodia, Malaysia, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Indonesia warning this morning that it could see a $4 billion hit to its economy this year if the travel restrictions remain in place for the foreseeable future.
“There is clearly a great deal of uncertainty over how things will play out over the coming weeks, but it now looks as though regional growth will slow sharply in the first quarter,” said Holmes.
Economists are betting on central banks in Asia-Pacific to unveil a round of interest rate cuts in the next two quarters to offset the negative impact of the virus, which has already dented business and shutdown major factories across the region.
However, it’s not just in Asia. Benn Steil, senior fellow and director of international economics at the Council on Foreign Relations, told CNBC a rate cut by the Federal Reserve is now in the cards this year.
Oxford Economics is estimated that a reduction in Chinese visitors means that 4 million hotel room nights in the U.S. will be lost in 2020 alone.
Europe’s growth prospects may be challenged, too. The continent has become an increasingly popular destination for Chinese travelers, especially amid fractured U.S.-China relationship in 2018.
In the first half of 2019, Chinese travelers made 3 million visits to European countries, up 7.4% versus the same period a year ago, according to Chinese tourism academy.
“Assuming that there would be a sharp drop in Chinese tourism throughout the entire year, many European economies would see consumption weaken,” said Carsten Brzeski, chief economist at ING to CNBC in an email.
“Obviously, countries like Greece and France would be hit most. This drop in tourism could add to a weakening of domestic demand, adding to existing problems stemming from the manufacturing sector, and in turn delaying the timing of a rebound of the entire Eurozone economy to the second half of the year,” noted Brzeski.
However, some experts see demand bouncing back as soon as the virus is contained and the travel ban is lifted.
“The Chinese I speak with in China are going stir crazy. Once restrictions (are) lifted, floods of Chinese will travel for business and leisure. Non-Chinese may be reluctant to return to China immediately. Depends on what happens over the next several weeks ,” said Stephen Orlins, president of the National Committee on U.S.-China Relations to CNBC.
–CNBC’s Faheimah Al-Ali contributed to this report.
Statistics Are Mixed But On Balance Say The Economy Is Weak – Forbes
If you listen to the White House, you hear that the economy is strong. Others will tell you that it has already sunk into recession. Such “analytical” differences are common at almost all times and almost always reflect the speaker’s political agenda more than any straightforward reading of the statistical evidence. These days things look more ambiguous than usual. Statistics offer ammunition for both views. The president can point, and he does, to the robust growth in payrolls. Those with a less sanguine view of things can point to among other things two consecutive quarterly declines in the nation’s real gross domestic product (GDP). Although the balance of the evidence points clearly toward a weakening economy, it is also fair to admit that the statistics paint a strangely mixed picture.
The Labor Department’s monthly employment report illustrates. On the positive side, the July survey of employers showed a striking expansion in payrolls, a gain of 528,000 positions. Private payrolls expanded by 471,000 positions. Though these are not record increases, they are nonetheless beyond most historical experience and far beyond where consensus expectations were. But in the same report, the survey of households showed July jobs up only 179,000. This tells quite a different story from the employers’ tally. The jobs gain was not only much smaller but was insufficient to overcome the June decline in jobs so that over the two months June and July the nation by this measure shed some 136,000 jobs.
Despite this contrast – still unexplained by the Labor Department – what tips the balance to the negative side is the flow of information from elsewhere and from the rest of the department’s monthly report. True, the unemployment rate dipped slightly from 3.6% of the workforce in June to 3.5% in July, but department also reported that some 538,000 people dropped out of the workforce in July. Since they are neither working nor seeking work, this movement more than accounts for the fall in the unemployment rate. What is more, the average weekly hours worked remained unchanged in July at 34.6, still down from April’s measure.
Outside the Labor Department’s accounting, there are of course the first and second quarter declines in real GDP, precipitous declines in consumer confidence, and reporting by the Institute of Supply Management (ISM) of slowing overall and an outright decline in the new orders part of the measure. This list of negatives is of course far from complete, but it is nonetheless indicative.
Apart from the current statistics that point to economic decline, two other considerations weigh heavily on the economy’s prospects. One is the ongoing inflation. At last measure, for June, the consumer price index (CPI) rose 9.1% from year-ago levels. This kind of price pressure seems likely to last. Even if it abates some — say to 8% or 7% — it will remain sufficient to impair economic growth prospects by eroding business and consumer confidence and discouraging the saving and investment on which economic growth ultimately depends. These effects could bring on recession all on their own. It certainly would not be the first time in history that inflation did so.
A still more potent recessionary threat emerges from the Federal Reserve’s (Fed’s) fight against inflation. The Fed began this effort last March. Before then, it had pursued a pro-inflationary monetary policy. It had kept short-term interest rates near zero and poured new money into financial markets buying bonds directly – mostly treasuries and mortgages – a practice the Fed refers to as “quantitative easing.” But since the March policy shift, the Fed has drained money from financial markets by selling from the hoard of bonds it had previously acquired and by pushing up short-term interest rates some 1.75 percentage points. While these are standard anti-inflation moves, they also restrain economic activity. What is more, the Fed seems determined to take further steps along these lines in coming weeks and months – a pattern that will make recession still more likely.
If this assessment is correct – and it does seem likely – then the statistics on which the optimists rely – including the White House – will turn negative in coming months. The evidence of economic weakness, if not outright recession, will become overwhelming. Whether this resolution of the economic picture takes place in the next month or two remains uncertain, but it is hardly likely that the ambiguities will remain in place very much longer.
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How to Improve your Credit Score in Canada
Improving your credit score is important for many reasons. First, it could help you get a lower interest rate on your loans or mortgages. Second, it could help you qualify for better rates on car loans, cell phone plans, and other types of loans. Third, having a good credit score could increase your chances of being approved for a job or apartment. Finally, keeping your credit score high can help you avoid becoming financially stressed in the future. Here are some of the ways you can improve your credit score in Canada:
Monitor your payment history
Your payment history is the most important factor for your credit score.
To improve your payment history:
- always make your payments on time
- make at least the minimum payment if you can’t pay the full amount that you owe
- contact the lender right away if you think you’ll have trouble paying a bill
- don’t skip a payment even if a bill is in dispute
Use credit wisely
Don’t go over your credit limit. If you have a credit card with a $5,000 limit, try not to go over that limit. Borrowing more than the authorized limit on a credit card can lower your credit score.
Try to use less than 35% of your available credit. It’s better to have a higher credit limit and use less of it each month.
- a credit card with a $5,000 limit and an average borrowing amount of $1,000 equals a credit usage rate of 20%
- a credit card with a $1,000 limit and an average borrowing amount of $500 equals a credit usage rate of 50%
If you use a lot of your available credit, lenders see you as a greater risk. This is true even if you pay your balance in full by the due date.
To figure out the best way to use your available credit, calculate your credit usage rate. You can do this by adding up the credit limits for all your credit products.
- credit cards
- lines of credit
For example, if you have a credit card with a $5,000 limit and a line of credit with a $10,000 limit, your available credit is $15,000.
Once you know how much credit you have available, calculate how much you are using. Try to use less than 35% of your available credit.
For example, if your available credit is $15,000, try not to borrow more than $5,250 at a time, which is 35% of $15,000.
Increase the length of your credit history
The longer you have a credit account open and in use, the better it is for your score. Your credit score may be lower if you have credit accounts that are relatively new.
If you transfer an older account to a new account, the new account is considered new credit.
For example, some credit card offers come with a low introductory interest rate for balance transfers. This means you can transfer your current balance to this new product. The new product is considered new credit.
Consider keeping an older account open even if you don’t need it. Use it from time to time to keep it active. Make sure there is no fee if the account is open but you don’t use it. Check your credit agreement to find out if there is a fee.
Limit your number of credit applications or credit checks
It’s normal and expected that you’ll apply for credit from time to time. When lenders and others ask a credit bureau for your credit report, it’s recorded as an inquiry. Inquiries are also known as credit checks.
If there are too many credit checks in your credit report, lenders may think that you’re:
- urgently seeking credit
- trying to live beyond your means
How to control the number of credit checks
To control the number of credit checks in your report:
- limit the number of times you apply for credit
- get your quotes from different lenders within a two-week period when shopping around for a car or a mortgage. Your inquiries will be combined and treated as a single inquiry for your credit score.
- apply for credit only when you really need it
“Hard hits” versus “soft hits”
“Hard hits” are credit checks that appear in your credit report and count toward your credit score. Anyone who views your credit report will see these inquiries.
Examples of hard hits include:
- an application for a credit card
- some rental applications
- some employment applications
“Soft hits” are credit checks that appear in your credit report but only you can see them. These credit checks don’t affect your credit score in any way.
Examples of soft hits include:
- requesting your own credit report
- businesses asking for your credit report to update their records about an existing account you have with them
Use different types of credit
Your score may be lower if you only have one type of credit product, such as a credit card.
It’s better to have a mix of different types of credit, such as:
- a credit card
- a car loan
- a line of credit
A mix of credit products may improve your credit score. Make sure you can pay back any money you borrow. Otherwise, you could end up hurting your score by taking on too much debt.
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